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Old 03-22-2016, 07:57 AM
 
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The Census will release new estimates at 12:01am on Thursday. Any thoughts on what they might show for your local areas?


Here are my rounded predictions:


Akron
Summit County: 542,200 (2014: 541,943)
Metro Area: 704,500 (2014: 703,825)


Cincinnati
Hamilton County: 809,000 (2014: 806,631)
Metro Area: 2,161,000 (2014: 2,149,449)


Cleveland
Cuyahoga County: 1,257,000 (2014: 1,259,828)
Metro Area: 2,062,500 (2014: 2,063,598)


Columbus
Franklin County: 1,248,000 (2014: 1,231,393)
Metro Area: 2,020,000 (2014: 1,994,536)


Dayton
Montgomery County: 532,000 (2014: 533,116)
Metro Area: 801,000 (2014: 800,836)


Toledo
Lucas County: 434,500 (2014: 435,286)
Metro Area: 606,500 (2014: 607,456)


Youngstown
Mahoning County: 232,000 (2014: 233,204)
Metro Area: 550,000 (2014: 553,263)


So basically, much of the same that's been going on so far this decade. Cincinnati, Akron and Columbus gain, Dayton remains somewhat stagnant, and everyone else loses a bit more.
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Old 03-22-2016, 03:48 PM
 
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Will the populations for each individual community be coming out at the same time?
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Old 03-22-2016, 04:24 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dxdtdemon View Post
Will the populations for each individual community be coming out at the same time?
No, those come out toward the end of May.
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Old 03-23-2016, 10:40 PM
 
16,345 posts, read 18,095,077 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbcmh81 View Post
The Census will release new estimates at 12:01am on Thursday. Any thoughts on what they might show for your local areas?

Here are my rounded predictions:

Akron
Summit County: 542,200 (2014: 541,943)
Metro Area: 704,500 (2014: 703,825)

Cincinnati
Hamilton County: 809,000 (2014: 806,631)
Metro Area: 2,161,000 (2014: 2,149,449)

Cleveland
Cuyahoga County: 1,257,000 (2014: 1,259,828)
Metro Area: 2,062,500 (2014: 2,063,598)

Columbus
Franklin County: 1,248,000 (2014: 1,231,393)
Metro Area: 2,020,000 (2014: 1,994,536)

Dayton
Montgomery County: 532,000 (2014: 533,116)
Metro Area: 801,000 (2014: 800,836)

Toledo
Lucas County: 434,500 (2014: 435,286)
Metro Area: 606,500 (2014: 607,456)

Youngstown
Mahoning County: 232,000 (2014: 233,204)
Metro Area: 550,000 (2014: 553,263)

So basically, much of the same that's been going on so far this decade. Cincinnati, Akron and Columbus gain, Dayton remains somewhat stagnant, and everyone else loses a bit more.
Okay, so here are the counties.

Akron- Summit
My estimate: 542,200
2015 Census Est: 541,968
2014-2015 Change: +25

Cleveland- Cuyahoga
My estimate: 1,257,000
2015 Census Est: 1,255,921
2014-2015 Change: -3,907

Cincinnati- Hamilton
My estimate: 809,000
2015 Census Est: 807,598
2014-2015 Change: +967

Columbus- Franklin
My estimate: 1,248,000
2015 Census Est: 1,251,722
2014-2015 Change: +20,329

Dayton- Montgomery
My estimate: 532,000
2015 Census Est: 532,258
2014-2015 Change: -858

Toledo- Lucus
My estimate: 434,500
2015 Census Est: 433,689
2014-2015 Change: -1,597

Youngstown- Mahoning
My estimate: 232,000
2015 Census Est: 231,900
2014-2015 Change: -1,304

So it looks like I generally underestimated losses some and overestimated gains some, with the exception of Franklin County, which did much better than I expected. It may be the fastest total growth year it has ever had. It is highly likely it is now the state's largest county this year.

Here are the top 20 counties by population.

1. Cuyahoga: 1,255,921
2. Franklin: 1,251,722
3. Hamilton: 807,598
4. Summit: 541,698
5. Montgomery: 532,258
6. Lucas: 433,689
7. Butler: 376,353
8. Stark: 375,165
9. Lorain: 305,147
10. Lake: 229,245
11. Warren: 224,469
12. Clermont: 201,973
13. Delaware: 193,013
14. Medina: 176,395
15. Licking: 170,570
16. Greene: 164,427
17. Portage: 162,275
18. Fairfield: 151,408
19. Clark: 135,959
20. Wood: 129,730

Last edited by jbcmh81; 03-23-2016 at 10:53 PM..
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Old 03-23-2016, 11:16 PM
 
16,345 posts, read 18,095,077 times
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Metro Areas

Akron
My estimate: 704,500
2015 Census Est: 704,243
2014-2015 Change: +418

Cincinnati
My estimate: 2,161,000
2015 Census Est: 2,157,719
2014-2015 Change: +8,270

Cleveland
My estimate: 2,062,500
2015 Census Est: 2,060,810
2014-2015 Change: -2,788

Columbus
My estimate: 2,020,000
2015 Census Est: 2,021,632
2014-2015 Change: +27,096

Dayton
My estimate: 801,00
2015 Census Est: 800,909
2014-2015 Change: +73

Toledo
My estimate: 606,500
2015 Census Est: 605,956
2014-2015 Change: -1,500

Youngstown
My estimate: 550,000
2015 Census Est: 549,885
2014-2015 Change: -3,378


So 4 out of 7 major metros grew last year. Considering it has been a lot worse in the past, that's not as bad as it could be.

Last edited by jbcmh81; 03-23-2016 at 11:55 PM..
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Old 03-24-2016, 12:26 AM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
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Ouch, Youngstown is in bad, bad shape. It lost even more people than Cleveland despite being about one quarter of the size.
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Old 03-24-2016, 07:54 AM
 
Location: Cleveland and Columbus OH
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi View Post
Ouch, Youngstown is in bad, bad shape. It lost even more people than Cleveland despite being about one quarter of the size.
My thoughts as well, though to be fair, these are estimates. Hard to deny though that Youngstown is still in steep decline.

The loss in Cleveland is to be expected. Though I still think the trend of younger, educated, skilled people moving in is offsetting that for now. However, I wouldn't say that it's really totally going in a positive direction overall. Yes, there are about 5 neighborhoods that are doing exceptionally well and maybe 5 more that are doing fine. Not sure what it's going to take to get GOOD things to happen in Glenville, Kinsman, Central etc. but until that happens it's hard to say that Cleveland will seriously grow. Not buying the notion that people will just move to the questionable neighborhoods because of development nearby. If that were so, then why does nobody want to move to Glenville, even though it's walking distance to University Circle? Why is North Collinwood going through good development, while South Collinwood is a wasteland? For this theory to work, the surrounding neighborhoods just can't have blocks that are vacant and incredibly high crime rates. That all being said, the investment and entrepreneurial spirit in the city is also quite real and kinda unprecedented. Still in wait and see mode. The CSA for Cleveland is still quite large. If only a few of these people could be reeled back into the urban center...

Good to see Akron growing. I feel that if Akron can be in the black, Cleveland can too in the nearish future. Akron is a pretty underrated place, as is Canton I think. There is a tendency to kind of think of these places as similar to Youngstown, but I think the stats show that they're not really comparable.
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Old 03-24-2016, 08:23 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh
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We are seeing that difference here. Pittsburgh has a handful of upscale neighborhoods while the rest are in step decline. Most are moving out to the stable suburbs in another county instead of investing in purchasing a run down house for rehab in a borderline neighborhood.


Possibly the same is happening in Youngstown. The suburbs are flourishing while people flee the city?
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Old 03-24-2016, 01:51 PM
 
Location: Youngstown, Oh.
5,513 posts, read 9,506,560 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluecarebear View Post
We are seeing that difference here. Pittsburgh has a handful of upscale neighborhoods while the rest are in step decline. Most are moving out to the stable suburbs in another county instead of investing in purchasing a run down house for rehab in a borderline neighborhood.


Possibly the same is happening in Youngstown. The suburbs are flourishing while people flee the city?
No, because Mahoning County only lost 1304 of the 3378 who left the metro area.


The older people in this region seems to be waiting for the next big industry to save us. They thought that was going to be fracking, and its support businesses. But, the recent oil and gas price crash has really hurt that industry, and by extension, the local economy.


The other problem, specific to the city of Youngstown, anyway, is that almost all the money the city spends on improving itself, is spent on demolition. There are no incentives for people to move into the city: no tax breaks, no home buyer incentives, no rehab assistance, etc. In fact, in my neighborhood, they have ramped up code enforcement. So, if you buy one of our beautiful historic homes, you'll soon receive a letter from the city telling you that you need to make X number of exterior repairs. (even though it's probably a higher priority to the new homeowner to have electricity, heat, and running water, first)
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Old 03-24-2016, 02:53 PM
 
16,345 posts, read 18,095,077 times
Reputation: 7889
Quote:
Originally Posted by bjimmy24 View Post
My thoughts as well, though to be fair, these are estimates. Hard to deny though that Youngstown is still in steep decline.

The loss in Cleveland is to be expected. Though I still think the trend of younger, educated, skilled people moving in is offsetting that for now. However, I wouldn't say that it's really totally going in a positive direction overall. Yes, there are about 5 neighborhoods that are doing exceptionally well and maybe 5 more that are doing fine. Not sure what it's going to take to get GOOD things to happen in Glenville, Kinsman, Central etc. but until that happens it's hard to say that Cleveland will seriously grow. Not buying the notion that people will just move to the questionable neighborhoods because of development nearby. If that were so, then why does nobody want to move to Glenville, even though it's walking distance to University Circle? Why is North Collinwood going through good development, while South Collinwood is a wasteland? For this theory to work, the surrounding neighborhoods just can't have blocks that are vacant and incredibly high crime rates. That all being said, the investment and entrepreneurial spirit in the city is also quite real and kinda unprecedented. Still in wait and see mode. The CSA for Cleveland is still quite large. If only a few of these people could be reeled back into the urban center...

Good to see Akron growing. I feel that if Akron can be in the black, Cleveland can too in the nearish future. Akron is a pretty underrated place, as is Canton I think. There is a tendency to kind of think of these places as similar to Youngstown, but I think the stats show that they're not really comparable.
We'll have to wait until May to see city results, but in terms of Cuyahoga County, specifically, its losses are really all about one thing, and it isn't domestic migration. Its natural growth rate is terrible. It has a low birth rate and high death rate. Between 2010-2015, it gained just over 7,000 people from natural increase. By comparison, Hamilton County was more than double that, and Franklin County was more than 7 TIMES that number, despite both of those counties having lower populations at the time. Natural increase is such a huge part of growth, but Cuyahoga County just doesn't have it. International migration was more than 2x that of natural growth, when it is typically the opposite for most places. Until the Cleveland area can either attract a younger demographic that can increase its birth rate, or find a way to stop or slow out-migration significantly, it will continue to have this problem. The city may end up doing better, but time will tell.
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