Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
the fair lakes THs are two exits further out on 66, so they are less conveniently located relative to inside the beltway employment centers (and to Tysons) than Metrowest, even for an auto commuter.
And they are two exits more conveniently located if your personal axis tends more toward Fair Oaks, Fairfax Corner, and the County Government Center. The point was over the relative equivalence in nearby amenities AFTER taking out the Metro station. The difference between say $375K and $500K seems like a substantial premium to pay for convenient Metro access, particularly if that access is actually from quite a significant distance away.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
And they are not brand new (mostly they are pre-2000, and the listings I see that are post 2000 are mostly not that large.
They are almost all older than the Wegman's, but that number does dwindle further as new projects in the area come on line. A ten-year old hosue is not old, and did you mean "not that large" in general, or in comparison to the 1448 sqft you can get for $500K in Metro West?
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
So its not JUST the metrowest amenities and the convenience to metro.
Right, there will certainly be some cachet factor in Metro West for a while as in the Mosaic District. Whether those will hold up or not over time is not a certainty, though it may seem a likelihood from the perspective of today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
BTW, I walk to the bus stop across windy LRT all through the winter. My wife and I have found cold weather walking to be quite health promoting
I walk from my car to the Metro station and from the Metro station to my office all through the winter, and I find it to be a dismal, depressing experience, especially when those dratted winds decide to howl, as they seem increasingly to do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
BTW, the walk along Blake lane to the metro isnt nearly as pleasant as I would hope the walk through metrowest will be. Anyway, I doubt those much older THs are really a relevant comparison.
Yes, I'll grant that. While it isn't just at the moment, the walk through Metro West should end up being a more pleasant if also a more enduring experience than what the stroll down Blake Lane and Saintsbury currently is.
And I suppose to those who believe that both houses and cars should be traded in for newer models prior to their reaching double-digits in age, most of the existing TH stock in the area would not be under consideration. For those having no such affectation however, the existing TH's are certainly a standard for comparison in assessing what you are being asked to pay for in Metro West.
I have nothing personally against slightly older homes (I live in an 80s era TH) nor am i unaware that there are jobs in the fair oaks/govt center area.
I was simply trying to clarify if the homes in Fair Oaks are "comps" for the houses to come in metrowest. My strong sense from looking at RE listings in this region, is that A. the housing price gradient runs out from the CBD, and secondarily from Tysons. You can no more use Fair Oaks as comp for Vienna, than you can FFX city for Annandale, Burke for North Springfield, or Herndon for Reston. This is independent of any effect of the metro as such B. There is a premium for new construction over lived in, and a premium for newer vs older - even for a 3 year old unit vs a 10 year old unit. There are MANY reasons for that, from fashions in architectural styles, to uptodateness of systems, to expected timing of repairs.
And yeah, the sizes were compared to the 1450 sq ft houses - some of the cheaper listings I saw in FO were around that size, or not much larger.
Some were short sales, which have their own issues as comps.
As for weather and walking - well we all have different outlooks on walking, on different kinds of weather, etc. I suspect the folks who are most likely to buy into ANY pedestrian oriented project in this area, are those with utility functions relating to modal choice for the first leg of the commute (walking vs driving) that are closer to mine than to yours.
And I suppose to those who believe that both houses and cars should be traded in for newer models prior to their reaching double-digits in age, most of the existing TH stock in the area would not be under consideration. For those having no such affectation however, the existing TH's are certainly a standard for comparison in assessing what you are being asked to pay for in Metro West.
I lived in a 1970s TH off blake lane. have you? I can tell you that in terms of appearance, functionality of layout, modernity of systems, etc, etc those are NOT comparable to what I would hope is going to be built in Metrowest. That is not affectation.
I found a better comp. Its a TH off cedar lane - comparable auto commute. Its a good bit larger (2000 sq feet) but its not only lived in, but its built in 2002 - it will be over 10 years old when the metrowest product is actually completed. It lists for 589k.
on a sq ft basis, that would be just under 450 k for the smaller THs. Clearly a good bit more than what the THs in Fair Oaks are selling for, which makes sense given the price gradient. A 50k premium for convenience to metro, AND 10 years newer and never lived in, AND for the metrowest amenities?
Location: Chapel Hill, NC, formerly NoVA and Phila
9,781 posts, read 15,802,795 times
Reputation: 10894
Well, I know for a fact that Marshall Road is gearing up to receive a lot more students in the coming years and are hiring a design consultant to optimize the space that they have to receive all the new students they expect. Everyone in the Marshall Road community expects that MetroWest is feeding into Marshall Road, so I'm pretty sure that's where they are going. Circle Towers already feeds into Marshall Road as does the development adjacent to the Metro on the south side of I-66. While it's possible they might go to Mosby Woods, I don't think it's likely at this point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77
Here's the document I found that suggested that MetroWest would be assigned to either Mosby Woods or Marshall Road ES, Jackson MS and Oakton HS:
Location: Chapel Hill, NC, formerly NoVA and Phila
9,781 posts, read 15,802,795 times
Reputation: 10894
I agree with BBD that Fair Oaks TH are not comparable to those in MetroWest. Even if one is working in Fair Oaks or the Gov't. Center area, a larger proportion of people will be working closer in toward DC or Tysons or wanting close access to the Metro, making it more appealing and driving the price higher. No one has discussed the school district comparison, which, whether we like it or not affects values quite a bit. For MetroWest, the pyramid is likely to be Marshall Road/Jackson/Oakton. Not sure what the Fair Oaks schools are or how they compare to those in MetroWest, but I would think an address feeding into Oakton HS would be a pretty good draw.
Well, whether it's worth the price or not, I know for the fact is that the project is getting so much attention. They had a VIP registration last Wednesday when they asked people who were interested in buying to call during noon to 2 PM. I called them at 12:19 and I was #127 on their list!
I dropped by the sales office and try to schedule an appointment to move forward to get to final pricing and to make an offer; the only thing I can do right now is to wait for them to call me back as they are still processing people ahead of me!
The current price are:
$499K for 1,4xx sq ft
$619K for 1,9xx sq ft
$709K for 2,4xx sq ft
As far as I know there are no other communities on metro stop like this one that feed into great school.
I was looking in Fair lake area but since I commute into DC, adding at least 30 minutes commute one-way doesn't sound like a great idea.
I'm sure it is competitive or Pulte et al. would have picked a different pricing point. $500K may actually turn out to have been a big bargain if the project ultimately comes in at or above expectations. But there are larger upscale TH's in Fair Lakes going for less than $400K. Alll the same amenities at least nearby -- just no Metro station. That's a pretty big premium to be paying, considering that some of the existing townhouses along Blake Lane might be closer to the station than the Lee Hghway side of Metro West. That won't be everyone's favorite "walkable" stretch in January.
On a completely different issue, I wonder what new pressures to alter/modify/improve Blake Lane Park will arise from completing Metro West?
I don't think that TH's in Fair lakes is doable for people who work in DC.. unless you have flexible hours.
I have nothing personally against slightly older homes (I live in an 80s era TH) nor am i unaware that there are jobs in the fair oaks/govt center area. I was simply trying to clarify if the homes in Fair Oaks are "comps" for the houses to come in metrowest.
They certainly would not be in the sense that the term "comps" is used when preparing a real estate appraisal. Anything much more than a mile away would be thought questionable and it is many miles from Metro West to Fair Lakes. The comparison was meant instead to be between generally comparable areas and what it might cost to live in them, the better to understand what sort of premium is being sought for Metro West homes. Fair Lakes offers rather limited access to public transit in comparison to Metro West, but it does have plenty of modern, well-built townhomes located in an upscale area surrounded by trails and greenery and a strong array of commercial and other amenities. In that sense, it may be as good a candidate for comparison to Metro West as can be found just lying around. That the ballpark price difference between the two areas is as large as it is does, I think, say something about the level of premium being asked of first-time Metro West homebuyers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
My strong sense from looking at RE listings in this region, is that A. the housing price gradient runs out from the CBD, and secondarily from Tysons.
I would say that values are high all the way across the arc that starts in McLean and North Arlington and then ventures west through Falls Church, Great Falls, Vienna, and Oakton before ending in Fairfax City while also including various nearby and border areas from a few of the neighboring CDP's. There are certainly areas of South Arlington and west of incorporated Alexandria that are closer to the CBD, but haven't come to command the same sort of housing prices. What that arc has in common of course is as simple as 1-2-3.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
You can no more use Fair Oaks as comp for Vienna, than you can FFX city for Annandale, Burke for North Springfield, or Herndon for Reston.
Again true only in the limited, real estate appraisal sense of the term comps. I feel I can compare the north side of Vienna for example to a place like Fairfax Station and ask how the two areas might be similar or different and what might account for any observable patterns of price difference between the two. Is that something that can't be done?
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
B. There is a premium for new construction over lived in, and a premium for newer vs older - even for a 3 year old unit vs a 10 year old unit. There are MANY reasons for that, from fashions in architectural styles, to uptodateness of systems, to expected timing of repairs.
It is certainly true that the median new home will sell for more than the median existing home, but after that, things begin to get a little murky. The only new homes sold are the ones that builders build, and they typically target the highest market niche they can while still expecting to sell all the homes they build. I don't think I can buy that architectural styles are subject to wild swings (or even much variation), particularly over periods as short as 3-5 years. Depreciation of the physical plant meanwhile begins the moment the house is completed. It is operational from Day-1. No one escapes it. If there is a preference for new, I would suggest that much of it is emotional in nature.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
And yeah, the sizes were compared to the 1450 sq ft houses - some of the cheaper listings I saw in FO were around that size, or not much larger.
Some were short sales, which have their own issues as comps.
The lower $300's, I could understand. By $375K, I'd expect to see more 1600-1800 sqft and up. The near $350/sqft that Metro West buyers are looking at is up the scale a ways. It deserves to be, but I wonder by how much.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
As for weather and walking - well we all have different outlooks on walking, on different kinds of weather, etc. I suspect the folks who are most likely to buy into ANY pedestrian oriented project in this area, are those with utility functions relating to modal choice for the first leg of the commute (walking vs driving) that are closer to mine than to yours.
I would hope so. But the globe-trekker mindset isn't really universal. A little arthritis, a bunion or two, maybe some knee surgery...suddenly that brisk, envigorating walk can seem like it's uphill in both directions. People who are on that side of Metro West should at least give it a test walk before signing up.
I have owned one (Lindenbrook), but never had the need to live in one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
I can tell you that in terms of appearance, functionality of layout, modernity of systems, etc, etc those are NOT comparable to what I would hope is going to be built in Metrowest.
Well, there are a lot of mature trees along Blake Lane. Probably not yet in Metro West. The 1970's models have brick or shingle siding and typically sturdy doors and good window space. Lots of hardwood floors. The roofs and perhaps gutters would have been replaced by now. Modern appliances are merely a matter of buying and installing them, and many of the current owners have no doubt done that over the years. Walk-in closets and master bath suites might be harder to come by. But of course they are close to the Vienna Metro station, either walking or via a short bus ride.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
That is not affectation.
The affectation I spoke of involved a notion that cars and homes have to be traded in for newer models every three to five years or so. That's kind of a minority view, given that 54 new SFH's sold in Fairfax County during the first three months of this year, while the number for existing SFH's was 1,308.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
