How has Covid19 impacted NoVa real estate? (Arlington: sale, real estate market)

[graceC]

Hello folks,

Are there home buyers, sellers, or realtors here who can share how Covid19 has impacted your own home buying / selling experience?

We were planning to put our house on the market in a month’s time but all of these social distancing and travel restrictions made us reanalyze our timing.

I’ve been checking realtor.com and the like and inventory remains low thus far with average days on the market in the 18-20 days range. I saw only 1 comparable house in my neighborhood on the market as of today and it’s been like that since before we’ve even heard of Covid19. But still, I am a bit nervous about the whole thing.

Thanks.

[Flamingo13]

I think it's too soon to tell - if you look in the Real Estate thread there are several post and opinions about this.

[DMom]

I'm a Realtor.
Sellers:
I had couple of my listings going on the market next week. My sellers have decided to push to later in the month or by early April. The reason, they are still living in the home and don't their family to expose to the virus. Also, they felt like many buyers may not see their homes because of the current situation.
Buyers
On the flip side, My buyers some of them are continuing to previewing the homes. They want to take advantage while the buyer pool shrinks. A few of them (especially with young kids) have decided to pause. And investors definitely are re-examining their decision to invest since many lost everything they were going to cash out.

My 2 cents are we Northern Virginia we will bounce back. If you need funds from the sale go list and do everything that is your Realtor recommending to get the home ready for the market.

[SmartMoney]

We will bounce back, but every exposure may be a risk to someone other than yourself. Everyone has asked politely for distance and limiting unnecessary contact. Even the government transfers (with moves involving selling and buying) have been put on hold.

As a seller, I would be concerned about a limited pool of buyers and getting the best offer. As a buyer, I would always wonder if I missed out on something better.

Additionally, rates are artificially high as an attempt to slow down the mortgage train. The Treasuries are at their lowest in my 30 years in the industry. Unfortunately, when the industry deliberately slowed refinance transactions, purchases got caught as well.

Jobs/earnings could also be a barrier if things hit the fan, there are few tephlon positions.....and then, if all went south, you would be buying at the top of the market. I think you have more to gain by waiting.

[coolio69]

I think this Covid 19 hysteria won't last more than a couple of weeks. BUT if it tends to be a months long deal, Amazon stands to benefit as people will stay home and order stuff online. Gotta mean that NoVA real estate and DC, to an extent, would do well. Sale prices in Arlington have been high, and could stay there and perhaps go higher.

[graceC]

Thanks folks. We’re going to wait and see for now. We’re in no rush, so even if we have to wait for a couple of years till we all recover, we’ll be ok.

Stay healthy everyone!

[sonnymarkjiz]

I wonder this too. I still think the drops in the regions that got hit in 2008 will be the most impacted. But I also think that the million dollar old tiny boxes in places like ALexandria and Arlington will finally go down to realistic levels (600-700K) but I don't see those prices lasting very long at all. I expect things to quickly bounce right back up in the next year.

I think the biggest impact will be the loss of the white collar jobs. The blue collar workers have been phased out of much of NOVA for a while now (sadly) and if white collar jobs mainly collapse, then this will definitely impact prices.

[NOVA_guy]

The markets like NYC, DC, SF, LA, Boston, etc will be fine, there may be a few bumps but in the long run they'll be fine.

Brookings Institution did a really good study on this, markets like Midland, TX, Tampa, Vegas, etc... the places where there is a large share of blue collar and hospitality jobs will be hit the hardest.

[Sdbu679]

While our current economic situation is unprecedented, and we still have to see how things will bear out over the next few weeks, the fundamentals of the residential real estate market are different from 2008.

I recently read that back in 2008, there was approximately 18 months' supply of housing on the market (saw this on Smart Agents). This time around, we only have 3.1 months of supply (CNBC). 6 months of supply is generally considered a balanced market. So from a simple inventory standpoint, we still have a massive shortage of housing in the U.S.

Home prices have actually gone up in 3 out of the 5 last recessions (with 2008 clearly being the worst). We'll have to see what happens.

[Hal Roach]

A friend sold his flip in Sterling a few weeks ago. Scheduled to close in early April. No delays, yet. He is concerned, but everything is in place, and all parties wish to proceed.