NoVA Home Prices Over the Next Few Years? (Gainesville: foreclosures, mortgage)

[CAVA1990]

Is this why investors aren't paying cash for homes here like they are in Southern California? Perhaps time to sell and get the heck out before the crash? And who'd a thunk this place would be made a ghost town in a Democratic administration?

[Caladium]

Sounds like an over-reaction to a temporary problem. IMO prices may stagnate for awhile, but not crash.

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

Is this why investors aren't paying cash for homes here like they are in Southern California?

I don't know about paying cash, but investors from other countries are definitely still buying homes here. There's a whole row of condos that were just built down the street from me, and they were all snapped up before I could even check out an open house. It's a smart investment long term.

[BMWZ4RUlz]

Around Arlington, cash offers are definitely being made. Yes. Usually below market though.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by dshawg1

When I asked politely if she was concerned about potential layoffs she said she hasn't heard of any layoffs??? Amazing.

That Jim Mora Coors Light commercial just popped in my head - "Layoffs?....."

[ChristineVA]

Even if sequestration does not occur, defense is dealing with some decent cuts. We are all prepping, in full-up hysterics now, for sequestration. Our notices will come in mid-February in preparation for April 16th furloughs starting. One day a week furlough for up to 22 days. We have already instituted practices of slowing or stopping contract obligations on service contracts (not material).

Hopefully Congress will make a decision one way or another so all this unrest can stop. Cuts or not, the uncertainty does NOTHING to help spending. We spend more time making plans on how to deal with sequestration rather than working on our mission.

With all that in mind, I think the short-term (next 6 months) could give anyone involved with federal contracts or civil servants a pause in making any large purchases, which could slow down real estate for a bit.

[shamrock847]

Inventory is low, interest rates are low, undemployment is low... should be good sligns for the housing market.

But the market here is not going to rise much, if at all, until the uncertainty around budget cuts and sequestration goes away. Not just the March 1 deadline and the 2013 budget, but the larger issue of what future govenment spending is going to look like. There are some pretty big philospohical divides on this.

People worried about losing their jobs or getting a pay cut (furlough) are not going to be eager to buy. I actually think the uncertainty is worse that whatever the result is going to be because the cuts, if they come, will impact a small number of people, while the uncertainty impacts everyone.

[ACWhite]

Arlington recently sent out tax assessments, which reflect July 1, 2011-June 30, 2012 values, with some adjustments for sales after June 30. Overall the county's residences increased in value only 1% from the prior year's period. There is always some variation by neighborhood, but probably not wild variation. The co. attributed that to uncertainty over the federal budget and other factors, and implied that there would be a tax rate increase (they almost always raise the rate when the RE values' increase is low), because nearly half the budget goes for school funding and there have been increases in enrollment, inflation has been higher than 1%, etc., among other reasons.

Although that doesn't guarantee anything about future values, my guess is that values will go up slightly or remain stable for Arlington in the coming year.

[JCVA]

With a flat/declining outlook for the Federal budget, I expect the real estate market here will be closer to what it was in the 90s when we had similar budget issues--basically flat. There are tremendous amounts of federal dollars spent here in Virginia--government employees per se are not the main driver of the economy--contractor dollars have driven much of the growth, and those sectors are in for some reductions, no matter what the resolution of the Fiscal Cliff.

[NovaOne]

There is no shortage of good paying jobs in this area. The government is not likely going to cut defense spending by a whole lot, which is what a lot of this area depends on. Efforts by republicans for cutting expenses are focused more on entitlement programs, grants, and etc.

Based on what I'm observing, prices in the NoVA area has more or less recovered to 2005 levels - far below the peak of 2006/2007. There is a shortage of inventory on the market, but no shortage of buyers. Reasonably priced homes are sold very quickly. Unless the inventory situation improves, the pressure for appreciation will continue. Interest rates will remain low for at least the next 2-3 years based on what Department of Treasury has indicated.