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Old 02-17-2024, 06:50 AM
 
1,459 posts, read 1,162,968 times
Reputation: 1786

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quick Enough View Post
"estimates"

I don't waste any of my time with "estimates"

An estimate is nothing more then a "wild ars guess".

It's like if, maybe, could, etc

Have any ever come to fruition?
I take it that you weren’t good in math, let alone accounting and finance. Probably not English either.
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Old 02-17-2024, 06:52 AM
 
1,459 posts, read 1,162,968 times
Reputation: 1786
Quote:
Originally Posted by TarHeelNick View Post
Durham will almost certainly officially be the 3rd largest city in the state by the 2030 Census.
I said 3-4 years earlier, but the more I think about it at the rate things are going, it will only be 1-2 years.
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Old 02-17-2024, 11:35 AM
 
873 posts, read 1,015,950 times
Reputation: 1898
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quick Enough View Post
"estimates"

I don't waste any of my time with "estimates"

An estimate is nothing more then a "wild ars guess".

It's like if, maybe, could, etc

Have any ever come to fruition?
Yes they have. Many times on surveys like this.
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Old 02-18-2024, 04:37 PM
 
37,875 posts, read 41,904,687 times
Reputation: 27271
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quick Enough View Post
"estimates"

I don't waste any of my time with "estimates"

An estimate is nothing more then a "wild ars guess".

It's like if, maybe, could, etc

Have any ever come to fruition?
Uh, no. An estimate is an approximation of a certain value based on known information; it's not just pulling any random value out of thin air arbitrarily.

Quote:
After unveiling the official counts of state populations, the U.S. Census Bureau released a new round of county and metro-level population estimates for 2020 ahead of detailed counts of the 2020 Census later this fall.

The estimates are calculated by tracking births, deaths and migration on top of the 2010 Census count baseline. The figures serve as a reference point for how many people reside in each county. Although the [NC] statewide official count of 10,439,388 individuals fell short of the 10,600,823 estimate, it came extremely close.
https://ncnewsline.com/2021/05/10/mo...lation-growth/

That's pretty good considering the impact of the pandemic on the calculation of the 2020 estimates.

Here's how well state 2010 estimates compared to the official Census counts: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-t...id-they-match/
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Old 02-18-2024, 04:55 PM
 
919 posts, read 745,725 times
Reputation: 1474
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Uh, no. An estimate is an approximation of a certain value based on known information; it's not just pulling any random value out of thin air arbitrarily.



https://ncnewsline.com/2021/05/10/mo...lation-growth/

That's pretty good considering the impact of the pandemic on the calculation of the 2020 estimates.

Here's how well state 2010 estimates compared to the official Census counts: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-t...id-they-match/
Science and facts are real. Too bad some people can't figure that out.
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Old 02-18-2024, 05:39 PM
 
851 posts, read 416,681 times
Reputation: 852
Quote:
Originally Posted by Owen Wister View Post
Science and facts are real. Too bad some people can't figure that out.
An estimate shouldn't be confused with a statement of fact, however likely its veracity. Now or ever. And what science tells us otherwise?

Last edited by TunedIn; 02-18-2024 at 06:04 PM..
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Old 02-18-2024, 09:49 PM
 
37,875 posts, read 41,904,687 times
Reputation: 27271
Quote:
Originally Posted by TunedIn View Post
An estimate shouldn't be confused with a statement of fact, however likely its veracity. Now or ever. And what science tells us otherwise?
An estimate shouldn't be confused with a definitive calculation or tally of the object under consideration.

If the estimate provided is indeed the estimate that was actually approximated, then to say as much would be a statement of fact in that it would truthfully reflect that figure. Even so, most people aren't going to provide exact population statistics for a given place in an everyday conversation. "About 10/10.5M" is a perfectly acceptable answer when discussing NC's population for most people.
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Old 02-19-2024, 07:26 AM
 
3,083 posts, read 4,853,825 times
Reputation: 1954
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quick Enough View Post
"estimates"

I don't waste any of my time with "estimates"

An estimate is nothing more then a "wild ars guess".

It's like if, maybe, could, etc

Have any ever come to fruition?
I used to feel the same way...always waited for the census.

And then there was the 2020 census. What a cluster.

Until we get to 2030 we might as well just assume these estimates are correct or at least close. But what I expect is that the 2030 census will actually re-set the numbers as a whole and then we can go on from there.
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Old 02-19-2024, 10:33 AM
 
851 posts, read 416,681 times
Reputation: 852
Quote:
Originally Posted by HP91 View Post
I used to feel the same way...always waited for the census.

And then there was the 2020 census. What a cluster.

Until we get to 2030 we might as well just assume these estimates are correct or at least close. But what I expect is that the 2030 census will actually re-set the numbers as a whole and then we can go on from there.
The worst part of 2020 was allowing Rhode Island to retain the employment of a politician who should have rightfully been left chasing behind an ambulance. So much for science and facts.
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Old 02-19-2024, 10:59 AM
 
851 posts, read 416,681 times
Reputation: 852
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
An estimate shouldn't be confused with a definitive calculation or tally of the object under consideration.

If the estimate provided is indeed the estimate that was actually approximated, then to say as much would be a statement of fact in that it would truthfully reflect that figure. Even so, most people aren't going to provide exact population statistics for a given place in an everyday conversation. "About 10/10.5M" is a perfectly acceptable answer when discussing NC's population for most people.
I regard Census Bureau estimates as trustworthy. In North Carolina and elsewhere. It's all we've got to go on regarding apportionment of representation in the lower house. Their numbers are the last word. Period.
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