Will Minneapolis ever see 500,000 again? (St. Paul, Aldrich: apartments, neighborhood, university)

[west336]

Originally Posted by Slig

My only point is that you shouldn't pass off generalizations made from personal observations as fact without any data to back it up. Saying that these small groups (relatively speaking) having very large families could increase the population of Minneapolis by a couple hundred thousand residents is absolutely ludicrous.

I don't need data to back it up, and I'm not going to research statistics to prove a point for you. I may be wrong, but since you're the one who disagrees why don't YOU find some data that proves me wrong instead of giving people chores to do? You must struggle with the concept of faith or art!

Affordable housing = lower income families, which usually equals more children or relatives per household. Affordable housing is a good start to driving more people back into the city. Unless you go vertical (and this market doesn't support that) you can't build high-density residential and have it appeal to high-income home-owners.

[RangerDanger]

Here is the difference by race in Minnesota for Average Family Size.
All States Household Size By Race
Here is the African American Immigrant Numbers they are higher @ 3.92
http://www.iatp.org/iatp/publication...8&refID=104335

So yes. This shocking evidence shows immigrant families from Africa and some other races have higher family household sizes. OMG, who would have thought this.

[Cruz Azul Guy]

Originally Posted by RangerDanger

Here is the difference by race in Minnesota for Average Family Size.
All States Household Size By Race
Here is the African American Immigrant Numbers they are higher @ 3.92
http://www.iatp.org/iatp/publication...8&refID=104335

So yes. This shocking evidence shows immigrant families from Africa and some other races have higher family household sizes. OMG, who would have thought this.

That data says nothing about birthrates and family size, it is number of people per household. This could mean they are all part of the same family, or it could (and many times is) shared living of extended family and/or friends.

The whole birthrate fallacy of non-white groups is completely blown out of proportion if you ask me.

[west336]

The whole point was people per household, or avg. household size, not birthrates.

[Cruz Azul Guy]

Originally Posted by west336

The whole point was people per household, or avg. household size, not birthrates.

Really, because that isn't what I would infer from your original post:

Originally Posted by west336

Actually, many immigrant groups have very large families, like Somali, Hmong and Latino. If housing were more affordable to those groups the population could rise dramatically with or without new high-density construction.

Very large families causing the population to rise dramatically? How does that not refer to birthrates?

[west336]

Originally Posted by Slig

That data says nothing about birthrates and family size, it is number of people per household. This could mean they are all part of the same family, or it could (and many times is) shared living of extended family and/or friends.

The whole birthrate fallacy of non-white groups is completely blown out of proportion if you ask me.

You explained it earlier....How does your foot taste?

[Cruz Azul Guy]

Originally Posted by west336

You explained it earlier....How does your foot taste?

Yes, we both agree that it is statistically proven that on average immigrant groups have larger household sizes. So beyond significantly higher birthrates (which as of yet nobody here has been able to prove), how would this result in a dramatic rise to a city's population from 390,000 to 500,000+? Albeit there is some additional immigration to the Twin Cities metopolitan area it is nowhere near the level that would support this type of explosive growth, unless you're talking about 40 years from now.

Another statistic that would be useful would be the portion of the population in Minneapolis that is foreign born...10-12% maybe?

[west336]

It was an "outside the box" idea, and nothing really that ground-breaking actually, and also very controversial to existing residents (affordable housing, that is).

[uptown_urbanist]

There are some statistics about foreign-born residents and expected growth here:
The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR): Metro Area Factsheet: Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota MSA Here's what they say at the very bottom about metro area growth and immigration:

"The current rate of population increase from 2000-07, if continued, will result in a population in 2025 of 4,041,000 residents. The projected increase in the foreign-born population will account directly for 43.4 percent of that change, and the foreign-born share of the population in 2025 will be about 9.1 percent. The immigrant share of the population increase would be much greater if the U.S.-born children of immigrants were included with the arrival of new immigrants."

I think it's reasonable to expect that immigrants and their children will have a significant impact on the future of Minneapolis. They won't be the only ones fueling any potential expansion, of course, but they've certainly had a significant role in reshaping Minneapolis in even just the past decade.

[City eYes]

I just hope the high rise dense housing stays downtown.