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Miami just keeps humming along. I think there will be a price correction in coming months, especially in the condo sector due to special assessments for older bldgs that need to recert, rising HOA fees resulting from significant increases in insurance costs and the need to build-up reserves, and rising mtg. rates. Condos more likely to be financed IMO.
For desirable single family homes, the correction will be minimal IMO. Too little supply of decent homes versus the number of cash buyers that will go "naked" on insurance.
I don't know where there's a population decline. I keep seeing full restaurants during a time when this is supposed to be the "downtime". Even my co-working space is filled up. Someone needs to double-check the population decline that was reported! LOL!
Location: Miami (prev. NY, Atlanta, SF, OC and San Diego)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MiamiLIFE
Miami just keeps humming along. I think there will be a price correction in coming months, especially in the condo sector due to special assessments for older bldgs that need to recert, rising HOA fees resulting from significant increases in insurance costs and the need to build-up reserves, and rising mtg. rates. Condos more likely to be financed IMO.
For desirable single family homes, the correction will be minimal IMO. Too little supply of decent homes versus the number of cash buyers that will go "naked" on insurance.
I don't know where there's a population decline. I keep seeing full restaurants during a time when this is supposed to be the "downtime". Even my co-working space is filled up. Someone needs to double-check the population decline that was reported! LOL!
1. Miami Dade suffered a 1.0% decline in population. A few are trying to paint this as a mass exodus--which it isn't. If I recall correctly from a separate post of yours with a WSJ link, whereas Miami Dade suffered this population loss over a 2-3 year period, the City of Miami and the Miami / West Palm MSA actually experienced slight population increases. You live within the City of Miami--hence, a reason why you have not experienced fewer people about town, in restaurants, etc.
How does Miami Dade compare with other major counties? The following is a chart showing percent population change from 2020 - 2022:
2. Per the Washington Post in an article examining Miami Dade's miniscule decline:
"This doesn't mean metro Miami is shrinking. Broward and Miami-Dade counties have had a few more births than deaths in recent years and (as I've pointed out ad nauseum on CD) the region attracts many people from outside the U.S. It was the near-halt to immigration early in the pandemic that caused population to decline from April 2020 to July 2021".
3. Restaurants seem to be full and we keep on attracting even more from NYC, CA, Chicago, Europe, etc to this day because wealthier people are moving here and replacing those who have gotten priced out and have moved away. This would also explain why real estate prices are still going up.
As the Washington Post also notes:
"the people coming in are more affluent than those leaving, although Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties really took this to new heights early in the pandemic. The average adjusted gross income of the 45,160 federal income taxpayers who changed their addresses to Miami-Dade County between 2020 and 2021 came to $ 229,662 while that of the 59,292 who left was just $ 66,354 according to the IRS."
Some are trying to equivocate Miami Dade's slight population decline with that of much larger declines from NY, CA, Chicago, DC, etc....while I agree the talk of everyone and their mother moving to Miami was overhyped (though not the case for Florida overall), the slight population decline of Miami Dade is also being overhyped by others.
I just got back from a 2 week vacation in California and there are stark contrasts, besides the degree of population changes--(1) show me where 1/2 the stores in Design District, Bal Harbour, Aventura or Brickell City Centre are closed or boarded up...you can't--but 1/2 the stores in San Francisco's major Union Square shopping district have closed....(2) show me where Starbucks have removed all outdoor and indoor seating in Miami and are now only doing takeout business...you can't--but that is what is taking place in downtown San Diego and select stores in LA in an effort to prevent homeless from camping out or sleeping overnight in front of their stores.....(3) show me where flash mobs are stealing from luxury stores in Miami, knowing as long as they steal less than $900 without a weapon involved the police and prosecutors will do nothing....you can't--but I was in town in LA when 2 such incidents occurred within the same week in the San Fernando Valley. (4) Show me where homeless are walking with their pants down while taking a crap on Brickell Avenue, Miracle Mile, Collins Avenue, South Pointe Park...you can't--but that is exactly what I witnessed in Palisades Park in a prime area of Santa Monica.
Gee, I wonder why wealthier people have moved here and why real estate prices continue to increase.
Last edited by elchevere; 08-31-2023 at 04:06 PM..
1. Miami Dade suffered a 1.0% decline in population. A few are trying to paint this as a mass exodus--which it isn't. If I recall correctly from a separate post of yours with a WSJ link, whereas Miami Dade suffered this population loss over a 2-3 year period, the City of Miami and the Miami / West Palm MSA actually experienced slight population increases. You live within the City of Miami--hence, a reason why you have not experienced fewer people about town, in restaurants, etc.
How does Miami Dade compare with other major counties? The following is a chart showing percent population change from 2020 - 2022:
2. Per the Washington Post in an article examining Miami Dade's miniscule decline:
"This doesn't mean metro Miami is shrinking. Broward and Miami-Dade counties have had a few more births than deaths in recent years and (as I've pointed out ad nauseum on CD) the region attracts many people from outside the U.S. It was the near-halt to immigration early in the pandemic that caused population to decline from April 2020 to July 2021".
3. Restaurants seem to be full and we keep on attracting even more from NYC, CA, Chicago, Europe, etc to this day because wealthier people are moving here and replacing those who have gotten priced out and have moved away. This would also explain why real estate prices are still going up.
As the Washington Post also notes:
"the people coming in are more affluent than those leaving, although Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties really took this to new heights early in the pandemic. The average adjusted gross income of the 45,160 federal income taxpayers who changed their addresses to Miami-Dade County between 2020 and 2021 came to $ 229,662 while that of the 59,292 who left was just $ 66,354 according to the IRS."
Some are trying to equivocate Miami Dade's slight population decline with that of much larger declines from NY, CA, Chicago, DC, etc....while I agree the talk of everyone and their mother moving to Miami was overhyped (though not the case for Florida overall), the slight population decline of Miami Dade is also being overhyped by others.
I just got back from a 2 week vacation in California and there are stark contrasts, besides the degree of population changes--(1) show me where 1/2 the stores in Design District, Bal Harbour, Aventura or Brickell City Centre are closed or boarded up...you can't--but 1/2 the stores in San Francisco's major Union Square shopping district have closed....(2) show me where Starbucks have removed all outdoor and indoor seating in Miami and are now only doing takeout business...you can't--but that is what is taking place in downtown San Diego and select stores in LA in an effort to prevent homeless from camping out or sleeping overnight in front of their stores.....(3) show me where flash mobs are stealing from luxury stores in Miami, knowing as long as they steal less than $900 without a weapon involved the police and prosecutors will do nothing....you can't--but I was in town in LA when 2 such incidents occurred within the same week in the San Fernando Valley. (4) Show me where homeless are walking with their pants down while taking a crap on Brickell Avenue, Miracle Mile, Collins Avenue, South Pointe Park...you can't--but that is exactly what I witnessed in Palisades Park in a prime area of Santa Monica.
Gee, I wonder why wealthier people have moved here and why real estate prices continue to increase.
In fairness, you could see most of this in Manhattan as well.
Location: Miami (prev. NY, Atlanta, SF, OC and San Diego)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MiamiLIFE
In fairness, you could see most of this in Manhattan as well.
And Michigan Avenue in Chicago….yet to see the mass retail departures/closures here in Miami. The one closure that was heralded as an epic Miami retail failure by a familiar detractor poster here, Time Out Market (was nothing remotely close to the original in Lisbon or any number of food halls in Madrid in the first place) has since reopened under a different name—South Beach Food Hall.
Last edited by elchevere; 09-01-2023 at 08:53 AM..
Miami just keeps humming along. I think there will be a price correction in coming months, especially in the condo sector due to special assessments for older bldgs that need to recert, rising HOA fees resulting from significant increases in insurance costs and the need to build-up reserves, and rising mtg. rates. Condos more likely to be financed IMO.
For desirable single family homes, the correction will be minimal IMO. Too little supply of decent homes versus the number of cash buyers that will go "naked" on insurance.
I don't know where there's a population decline. I keep seeing full restaurants during a time when this is supposed to be the "downtime". Even my co-working space is filled up. Someone needs to double-check the population decline that was reported! LOL!
Overall I think this is a good take, especially for single family homes. I highlighed in a different thread that there are only 500k single family homes and roughly 1M households. What's worse is the suppy of single family homes isn't increasing. Most inner city new single family homes are are on lots with existings homes. Because were borded by the ocean and everglades we can't simply add a ton of new suburban supply.
Condos don't have that restriction as they can build as many as possible. The thing holding condo construction back has been a big increase in construction cost. So while their may be some correction I doubt that it will be severe.
As far as the population decline goes, its a very small number. And it isn't happening because Miami not thriving because it is. The decline is happening because people are moving in with higher incomes pushing lower income people out. That's a huge difference then these citis in NY and Cali where the high income earners are leaving.
While is sucks for people leaving you end up with a city that has a higher tax base, with people making more money with higher education attainament.
The decline is happening because people are moving in with higher incomes pushing lower income people out. That's a huge difference then these citis in NY and Cali where the high income earners are leaving.
While is sucks for people leaving you end up with a city that has a higher tax base, with people making more money with higher education attainament.
Location: Miami (prev. NY, Atlanta, SF, OC and San Diego)
7,409 posts, read 6,540,013 times
Reputation: 6671
We’re benefitting from the influx of wealthy/ier people from those other states, but those other states also have their share of average and below average earners fleeing for less expensive states (no different than some Miamians who have gotten priced out of our market and seek lower COL). In the case of CA, plenty have moved to TX, NV, AZ; in the case of NY to NC, GA, cheaper areas of FL, etc. Not just the wealthy that have moved from those other expensive coastal cities and states.
Our benefit is these new wealthy transplants here bring and/or attract restaurants, retailers, companies, etc with them, be it from NY, CA, Chicago, Europe, etc. Too bad Californians can’t bring some cooler weather with them
Last edited by elchevere; 09-01-2023 at 01:35 PM..
Overall I think this is a good take, especially for single family homes. I highlighed in a different thread that there are only 500k single family homes and roughly 1M households. What's worse is the suppy of single family homes isn't increasing. Most inner city new single family homes are are on lots with existings homes. Because were borded by the ocean and everglades we can't simply add a ton of new suburban supply.
Condos don't have that restriction as they can build as many as possible. The thing holding condo construction back has been a big increase in construction cost. So while their may be some correction I doubt that it will be severe.
As far as the population decline goes, its a very small number. And it isn't happening because Miami not thriving because it is. The decline is happening because people are moving in with higher incomes pushing lower income people out. That's a huge difference then these citis in NY and Cali where the high income earners are leaving.
While is sucks for people leaving you end up with a city that has a higher tax base, with people making more money with higher education attainament.
I think condos are going to see a large correction. Especially anything older due to the much higher carry costs resulting from HOA fees increasing significantly. The newest buildings will probably maintain value as the number of buyers preferring "new only" as an option far exceed the number of new buildings available. Time will tell, but there's seems to be a lot of distress manifesting in the economy. Car payment delinquencies record high, credit debt record high, unemployment rate just jumped, and more lay-offs coming. Maybe Miami is insulated, but whenever someone says "that won't happen here" the other shoe suddenly drops.
I think condos are going to see a large correction. Especially anything older due to the much higher carry costs resulting from HOA fees increasing significantly. The newest buildings will probably maintain value as the number of buyers preferring "new only" as an option far exceed the number of new buildings available. Time will tell, but there's seems to be a lot of distress manifesting in the economy. Car payment delinquencies record high, credit debt record high, unemployment rate just jumped, and more lay-offs coming. Maybe Miami is insulated, but whenever someone says "that won't happen here" the other shoe suddenly drops.
I don't think it's a matter of "that won't happen here". It's just a function of market fundamentals. We're not overbuilding like we did in the past. You have a combination of high construction prices, material delays and Miami not being able to effeciently authorize permits.This means its taking much longer to deliever projects. Another factor is now the condo projects are bigger. When you're looking at these almost 70 story buildings the development timeframe is 5 years.
I think the market will definitely cool off. But when you say "large correction" to most people that means prices dropping by a large percentage.
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