The city of Miami's true population??? (Jacksonville, Tampa: rent, high crime, to buy)

[wanderer34]

https://www.populationu.com/cities/miami-fl-population

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami

https://www.city-data.com/forum/miam...elp-miami.html

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...ing-state.html

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/22/sta...growing-census

Hello all! I'm still pretty confused as to what the true population of the city of Miami is. Back in 2019, according to the US Census, the population was recorded as 467,963. In the official 2020 US Census, it dropped down to 442,241, leaving a difference of about 25,722 that wasn't accounted for during that 2019 US Census. In 2021, it dropped down to 439,890. With the rate of the construction going on in Miami right now plus the fact that FL has been recorded as having the fastest-growing state in the country since the 2020 US Census, it's a little odd that Miami had dropped while the rest of the state has grown considerably.

What do you guys think about Miami's figures for the 2020s? I'm pretty sure that Miami currently should have about 487K and should be approaching 500K anytime soon this decade despite the latest figures displaying that Miami has been dropping in population. I'm also sure with the expansion of the Metrorail, Tri-Rail, and Brightline rail systems, and the rapid construction of residential units within Miami and South FL, that should help Miami boost it's population in the coming decades.

[CXT2000]

Originally Posted by wanderer34

https://www.populationu.com/cities/miami-fl-population

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami

https://www.city-data.com/forum/miam...elp-miami.html

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...ing-state.html

https://www.axios.com/2022/12/22/sta...growing-census

Hello all! I'm still pretty confused as to what the true population of the city of Miami is. Back in 2019, according to the US Census, the population was recorded as 467,963. In the official 2020 US Census, it dropped down to 442,241, leaving a difference of about 25,722 that wasn't accounted for during that 2019 US Census. In 2021, it dropped down to 439,890. With the rate of the construction going on in Miami right now plus the fact that FL has been recorded as having the fastest-growing state in the country since the 2020 US Census, it's a little odd that Miami had dropped while the rest of the state has grown considerably.

What do you guys think about Miami's figures for the 2020s? I'm pretty sure that Miami currently should have about 487K and should be approaching 500K anytime soon this decade despite the latest figures displaying that Miami has been dropping in population. I'm also sure with the expansion of the Metrorail, Tri-Rail, and Brightline rail systems, and the rapid construction of residential units within Miami and South FL, that should help Miami boost it's population in the coming decades.

I think July 1st, 2021-2022, I would guestimate between 445K to 450K, a modest increase. You have to remember, even with all the construction planned and on going, people are still leaving in droves because locals are getting priced out for NYers, a few SoCal peeps and a lot of buildings are still built by only foreign investors (there were a few buildings last year that were 100% bought by people residing in Latin America). Will they live there? Not all, will they rent out some units? Yes, will a lot remain empty? Yes. Another factor is the proportion of immigrants coming into the United States has decreased dramatically compared to 10 years ago, which has affected major cities.

I'll give you another example, Toronto is building more than any other city on the continent. 2021-22 saw a net gain of 138K people. You might say, holy **** that's fantastic! But then when you realise almost 80,000 people left the city to go elsewhere in the GGH area/Ontario, then you see there's a problem (Toronto saw +216K immigrants, which is why it net gains outpace practically every city). Miami is going through the same thing, locals are leaving in droves for either Broward, WPB or Orlando/Tampa. If not there, they end up in Charlotte, or Nashville, or Austin, and hell some even came up to Canada (it's pretty funny seeing FL plates all over downtown in the middle of January).

There's no denying people are moving to FL at a breakneck speed, but Florida in general has always had a retention issue. You get that 1-2 year honeymoon phase and then by 3-5 years, you're either moving within the state or you're out of it entirely. It's the same issue with Miami and there's been a pattern of more people leaving MDC since before the pandemic. I think 2018 or 2019 the net gain was hovering at only 2K people or so.

[elchevere]

Keep in mind foreigners were prevented from visiting and moving here en masse during Covid until November 2021, when the U.S. government finally lifted bans for fully vaccinated individuals. Obviously, this impacted 2020 and 2021 figures.

With South America turning increasingly leftist I would expect their numbers to resume to pre Covid levels with more foreigners to buy here and live here—particularly from Brazil, Colombia and Peru.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exc...al-2021-10-15/

Curious as to when full year 2022 data becomes available to confirm whether we see a boost or not.

[CXT2000]

Originally Posted by elchevere

Keep in mind foreigners were prevented from visiting and moving here en masse during Covid until November 2021, when the U.S. government finally lifted bans for fully vaccinated individuals. Obviously, this impacted 2020 and 2021 figures.

With South America turning increasingly leftist I would expect their numbers to resume to pre Covid levels with more foreigners to buy here and live here—particularly from Brazil, Colombia and Peru.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/exc...al-2021-10-15/

Curious as to when full year 2022 data becomes available to confirm whether we see a boost or not.

Population estimate stats should be relatively soon no? Or is it Q2 when they are released?

[elchevere]

Originally Posted by CXT2000

Population estimate stats should be relatively soon no? Or is it Q2 when they are released?

could be wrong, but think March or April.

[wanderer34]

I can somehow see that Miami has grown, but a majority of that growth should be around the Miami waterfront as opposed to inland communities such as Little Havana, Little Haiti, and Liberty City, where you have lower density housing, and even those communities are gradually changing with newer residential units being built.

Personally, I feel that Miami should challenge the US Census for it's mishandling of the 2020 Census. It makes sense that Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, and other FL cities are growing but Miami is the only city that's declining. If the city is building more residential units in it's history, then that should be a net increase, but I'm thinking that there were a lot of people that were unaccounted for in the 2020 US Census due to the pandemic, and it made it a lot tougher for enumerators to make a more exact count for Miami. Hopefully city and county leaders can turn Miami's population around.

[CXT2000]

Originally Posted by wanderer34

I can somehow see that Miami has grown, but a majority of that growth should be around the Miami waterfront as opposed to inland communities such as Little Havana, Little Haiti, and Liberty City, where you have lower density housing, and even those communities are gradually changing with newer residential units being built.

Personally, I feel that Miami should challenge the US Census for it's mishandling of the 2020 Census. It makes sense that Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, and other FL cities are growing but Miami is the only city that's declining. If the city is building more residential units in it's history, then that should be a net increase, but I'm thinking that there were a lot of people that were unaccounted for in the 2020 US Census due to the pandemic, and it made it a lot tougher for enumerators to make a more exact count for Miami. Hopefully city and county leaders can turn Miami's population around.

Basically every major city lost more people, including Miami. Sure it's building a lot, and always has, but you can't just automatically assume that all the buildings going up downtown means more people are moving in. Locals have been getting priced out and their pattern has only increased over the past few years, there's a lot of underlying factors.

I find it funny that everyone here thinks the census is wrong because Miami had an unexpected (but to me, expected) outcome. Obviously it was more crowded there, you had people fleeing covid restricted areas, but that does not mean they automatically moved there for good. Then add locals fleeing for being priced out, people moving back to NYC/SoCal after the loosening of restrictions, Miami is still building units by and for 100% foreign investors and speculators, etc... There's a lot of factors at play.

[wanderer34]

Miami has, for the most part, grown, hence it's nickname the Magic City, and I'm pretty sure that there have been periods of stagnancy during the 1970's to as early as the 2000's, when Miami was known for the "Cocaine Cowboys" era, the waves of Cubans coming into Miami's shores, and high crime. You're seeing some migrants still come to Miami, and with the instability of Latin American countries such as Cuba, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, and Brazil, expect to see a lot more people come directly to Miami.

[Bobdreamz]

As far as I can remember Miami has always had a problem with the Census and a Undercount going back decades. There was a period they said Miami only grew by 6,000 people in a decade while the Metro was exploding in population. I believe Miami proper probably has well over half a million residents already.

[CXT2000]

Originally Posted by Bobdreamz

As far as I can remember Miami has always had a problem with the Census and a Undercount going back decades. There was a period they said Miami only grew by 6,000 people in a decade while the Metro was exploding in population. I believe Miami proper probably has well over half a million residents already.

A lot of people always forget that locals always move elsewhere, either to other parts of MDC or the MSA. Believe it or not, Miami does lose a lot of people and a lot of people who move there do not last long and go elsewhere.

Something that will also help with more accurate population figures is to see who is actually there full time/part time, true figures on residential vacancy rates and how many undocumented people live or are within city limits.