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This is not a question concerning tourist safety to Mexico. What I am trying to figure out is which parts of Mexico are more affected by the war on the Cartels than others. When I was in Mexico in 2003, before Calderon's War, the cartels operated primarily in the borderlands (at least this is what I was told). The violence was disproportonally in the border areas with the US for obvious reasons. Yes, there were also security concerns in Mexico City, but much of that was general street crime and not necessarily the Cartels. Where I was in the Yucatan (except for Cancun City) and Chiapas, it was relatively safe. Even Chiapas was safe enough if you stayed on the tourist trail and traveled in the daylight hours when you ventured in the eastern countryside.
Now, if you read the US newspapers about the conflict, most seems to focus on Ciudad Juarez and the surrounding area. Though sometimes other border cities are mentioned and sometimes Cartel violence in Central Mexico (like Cuernavaca). Therefore, is it true that the worst area for Cartel violence in near the US border, especially Ciudad Juarez? Have the cartels expanded their violence in central Mexico or were they already there? Also, is southern Mexico still relatively unaffected? Where exactly is the conflict taking place and what has changed since 2003 geographically speaking?
I'm hearing lots of reports out of Tampico on the gulf coast, and out of Acapulco and Mazatlan on the Pacific coast.
Earlier this year there were a number of reports in Durango and Morelia. They seem to have quieted down. I am seeing scattered reports all over central and northern Mexico (Ciudad Mante, Ciudad Valles, Chihuahua, Lazos Cardenas, etc.) which are too infrequent to worry much about but enough to show the cartel presence is pervasive.
Most incidents remain in the border area from Juarez to Matamoros, with that border zone extending south a few hundred miles (Monterrey, Valle Hermoso).
The cartels were always in the central zone - La Familia is based in Michoacan - but the violence was kept out of their own house until the army and feds began attacking them at home.
It's not TODAY'S known geographical distribution of violence that concerns me, but rather the FUTURE growth and shifts of unchecked drug- and gang-related crime. As I continue to evaluate Mexico for myself as a retirement option, I have to wonder if today's 'safe' communities will still be assured of the same relative tranquility 5, 10, or 20 years from now. An investment in foreign real estate could be turned upside-down, with no quick exit strategy possible, if the geographical distribution of violence ends up taking over these holdout communities that are today's oases of peaceful existence. The rapid and well-calculated expansion by drug cartels throughout Mexico gives little reason to think that it will be controlled any time soon, and that there is simply more of Mexico to conquer.
It's not TODAY'S known geographical distribution of violence that concerns me, but rather the FUTURE growth and shifts of unchecked drug- and gang-related crime. As I continue to evaluate Mexico for myself as a retirement option, I have to wonder if today's 'safe' communities will still be assured of the same relative tranquility 5, 10, or 20 years from now. An investment in foreign real estate could be turned upside-down, with no quick exit strategy possible, if the geographical distribution of violence ends up taking over these holdout communities that are today's oases of peaceful existence. The rapid and well-calculated expansion by drug cartels throughout Mexico gives little reason to think that it will be controlled any time soon, and that there is simply more of Mexico to conquer.
They have no reason to head south. I think I'd start with that premise.
They have no reason to head south. I think I'd start with that premise.
In case you didn't know, the cartels are a big problem in Guatemala.
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