Will Illinois ever be the 5th biggest state again? (Pittsburg: area, population)

[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by jmgg

The BIG difference is the economies of states like Florida compared to Illinois before the pandemic. Florida can weather this pandemic much better because economically they were starting from a position of strength.

Florida's number 1 economic industry remains tourism, they took a much greater hit; and continue to.

[jmgg]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

Florida's number 1 economic industry remains tourism, they took a much greater hit; and continue to.

True, but they weren't already crushed by insurmountable mountains of debt. When this virus comes to an end they'll come roaring back while Illinois will continue to flap around and gasp like a fish on the shore.

[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by jmgg

True, but they weren't already crushed by insurmountable mountains of debt. When this virus comes to an end they'll come roaring back while Illinois will continue to flap around and gasp like a fish on the shore.

People have been flocking from the rust belt to the sun belt since WW2, from every state.
As that is where the most federal $$ has been been focused for growth since 1945.
And therefore, Illinois and many other northern states will probably never be in the top 5 again.
Your state is among the better ones to relocate to, problem is there isn't much to do; and winters are long/cold.

[Curly Q. Bobalink]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

People have been flocking from the rust belt to the sun belt since WW2, from every state.
As that is where the most federal $$ has been been focused for growth since 1945.
And therefore, Illinois and many other northern states will probably never be in the top 5 again.
Your state is among the better ones to relocate to, problem is there isn't much to do; and winters are long/cold.

Not familiar with that aspect - I would have said the increase in growth was largely due to widespread availability of air conditioning, same thing in Arizona and Texas. For me, the Gulf states would be an unbearable place to live without A/C, it's simply too humid - I'd rather put up with the winters in Illinois than the summers in Florida.

I'm thinking there was "always" some tourism in Florida (alligators and fishing being the lure in the distant past, at least since the 50's, when the Interstate highways were built, cars started getting A/C, and commercial air travel expanded greatly), but it was Walt Disney in about 1970 that made Florida the tourist Mecca it is today, the others (Sea World, Universal, etc.) have made it that much more so. But you can't discount Chicago for being a big tourism draw, check out the numbers - they're huge. All the more reason the city needs to put a lid on the violence before we lose that industry as well.

[jmgg]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

People have been flocking from the rust belt to the sun belt since WW2, from every state.
As that is where the most federal $$ has been been focused for growth since 1945.
And therefore, Illinois and many other northern states will probably never be in the top 5 again.
Your state is among the better ones to relocate to, problem is there isn't much to do; and winters are long/cold.

Can't argue with you there.

[Sunbiz1]

Originally Posted by Curly Q. Bobalink

Not familiar with that aspect - I would have said the increase in growth was largely due to widespread availability of air conditioning, same thing in Arizona and Texas. For me, the Gulf states would be an unbearable place to live without A/C, it's simply too humid - I'd rather put up with the winters in Illinois than the summers in Florida.

I'm thinking there was "always" some tourism in Florida (alligators and fishing being the lure in the distant past, at least since the 50's, when the Interstate highways were built, cars started getting A/C, and commercial air travel expanded greatly), but it was Walt Disney in about 1970 that made Florida the tourist Mecca it is today, the others (Sea World, Universal, etc.) have made it that much more so. But you can't discount Chicago for being a big tourism draw, check out the numbers - they're huge. All the more reason the city needs to put a lid on the violence before we lose that industry as well.

Yes sir, A/C was another major reason; just watched a timeline documentary on U.S. migration patterns.
Chicago still has a lot to offer, more than any other major northern city I can think of.
Violence has been an issue for almost a century, yet the tourists were still coming; up until Covid.
They'll be back.

[augiedogie]

This thread is about population. Before CV19, both Ill and Chicago were in decline. Continued violence and your extended lockdown make people even less likely to want to live there. I expect more Ill. residents to move to Wis, Indiana, and the south. Remember, Midwestern Black's are also in a migration pattern south. Considering that Chicago's population is down 10%, it will mean taxes will have to continue to rise to try to handle the debt load and the unfunded pension liabilities. That also will not encourage people to want to live in Ill.

[Bitey]

The question isn't whether Illinois will ever regain the #5 spot but rather will it fall even further to #7 or #8 behind Georgia and/or North Carolina by the 2030 census.

Eastern Pennsylvania is to New York and New Jersey as Wisconsin and Northwest Indiana are to Illinois: the nearest place to flee to escape high taxes and high cost of living while still being culturally familiar and relatively close to what they're fleeing from that they don't have to completely give it up. Eastern PA isn't a HUGE magnet like the Sun Belt is but it's been just enough of one to offset the losses from the rest of the state. As long as eastern Pennsylvania is seen by others in the region as a place to flee TO while NE Illinois is seen as a place to flee FROM, Illinois will remain behind Pennsylvania.

[CCrest182]

Originally Posted by Bitey

The question isn't whether Illinois will ever regain the #5 spot but rather will it fall even further to #7 or #8 behind Georgia and/or North Carolina by the 2030 census.

Eastern Pennsylvania is to New York and New Jersey as Wisconsin and Northwest Indiana are to Illinois: the nearest place to flee to escape high taxes and high cost of living while still being culturally familiar and relatively close to what they're fleeing from that they don't have to completely give it up. Eastern PA isn't a HUGE magnet like the Sun Belt is but it's been just enough of one to offset the losses from the rest of the state. As long as eastern Pennsylvania is seen by others in the region as a place to flee TO while NE Illinois is seen as a place to flee FROM, Illinois will remain behind Pennsylvania.

I agree with this, but PA is still a rust belt state and most of the state continues to lose population. I don't think it will grow all that much because of this. I do think Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have room to grow though, so that may pump numbers up. Agreed though, Georgia and NC are the states to watch.

[Bitey]

Originally Posted by CCrest182

I agree with this, but PA is still a rust belt state and most of the state continues to lose population. I don't think it will grow all that much because of this. I do think Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have room to grow though, so that may pump numbers up. Agreed though, Georgia and NC are the states to watch.

Pennsylvania's population doesn't have to grow very much to keep distancing itself from Illinois, it just has to hold steady while Illinois' population declines. It has managed to do that thanks to modest growth in the Philly area and NEPA.

The Pittsburgh MSA has plenty room to grow but apparently it has even more room to shrink, which it's been doing for the last 60 years.