Why are SO many Illinois folk attracted to Arizona?

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Don Coccino

If not in 2 years then in 6 years. There will be Democrat elected to Senate or AG in Texas. The current AG and Senator barely got 50%. I don't think Dems can win Texas for the Presidency for another 3 cycles though.

Prior to 2020, Arizona hadn't elected a democrat to the senate in 32 years!!! Now they have 2. The trends are obvious, though they are gradual and slow, they are there.

My position was more concerned with the BS voter restrictions they're trying to pass than actual population trends. I think the first time a Democrat wins statewide in Texas for the first time in decades will need to be a 2018-like cycle where there's no presidential election and Republicans generally stay home at a greater rate - again assuming some of the worst voter restrictions don't pass.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Don Coccino

I'm not a democrat and I never said the country, I said Texas. Trump did manage to turn several blue states into purple states (MI, PA, WI) , he also turned a couple of red states turned into purple states, GA and AZ. Texas is next, don't know the exact date, not today, not tomorrow, but it's coming. Ignore at your own peril.

I think Wisconsin's been purple for a while - look how close 2004 was and that Scott Walker was governor and Ron Johnson is a Senator. Obama was an historic candidate that made winning WI, PA, MI (even OH and FL) look relatively easy.

[fusillirob1983]

Originally Posted by Hiruko

Democrats love to embrace the theory that this country is moving ever so in that direction and then are shocked when Republicans win the elections. The Republicans have lagged in popularity and registration since the '30s, but they always somehow manage to punch above their weight and are able to expand their coalition in various ways. Trump, whatever you think of him, was very good about finding new Republican voters.

Texas
2008 presidential election
R - 55% 4.5 million
D - 43% 3.5 million

2012 presidential
R - 57% 4.5 million
D - 41% 3.3 million

2016 presidential
R - 52% 4.7 million
D - 43% 3.9 million
L - 3% 0.3 million

2018 senate
R - 51% 4.2 million
D - 48% 4 million

2020 presidential
R - 52% 5.9 million
D - 46% 5.2 million

The problem with elections in Texas has historically been turnout. Making it easier to get access to voting with more drop boxes and drive through voting, as well as a more concerted effort by Democrats to reach new voters has helped them. I agree that Texas is not necessarily "moving in that direction" as you say, but the Democrats are starting to make dents through getting higher turnout. The margins will likely remain similar to the 2018-2020 range rather than 2008 or 2012 for several election cycles. That said, the Republican Texas legislature is trying to pass more voting restrictions because these margins are very concerning to them. It's the same reason Georgia passed voting restrictions and the same reason some random company with no history of performing election audits confiscated ballots in Arizona.