What's the end game with North Idaho prices rising nonstop?

[Memphis Eric]

I think several factors are contributing to housing prices in North Idaho - more people are able to work from home, migrations from more COVID restricted states (this also falls under political affiliation but I think a lot of families want to live a somewhat normal life without shutdowns), low interest rates and fear of missing out.

I live in Tennessee but purchased land in Sagle five years ago in hopes to build a vacation/retirement home. After working with an architect and finally a builder in my budget I was able to start building in early March. I had thought I made a huge mistake and feared the housing market was going to crash after the virus spread and stock market was dropping rapidly. I was extremely lucky to beat the rush and high lumber prices.

Supply and demand are also playing a big role in the surge of prices. My contractor told me back in July that most home builders in the area are booked up for 2 to 3 years. Even this late in the build we are finding it hard to schedule subcontractors and tradespeople. I know nationally there is shortage of high school graduates going into building trades and this is contributing to the shortage of houses.

From my experience in following the North Idaho market in the last six years (outside looking in) is this year is anomaly but I still think there is possibility of the last of the surge to continue into next year. After that I feel like it might be a more gradual increase in prices (but who knows what will happen especially after this crazy year).

If people are able to afford a house in North Idaho and "work from home" becomes permanent you are going to probably see a lot more migration there. At some point the prices will get too high and/or restrictions become lifted and people will decide to stay in their current home.

[Cdarocks]

Originally Posted by nm9stheham

It will take some time for any downward price trend to take hold.... it takes a while for seller's price expectations to change, and if the present high prices are not to be had due to demand slowing in winter (like it typically does), then some property just may go off the market, and then inventory will get even tighter in the spring, and bang-o another price hike. Talk about your predictive crapshoot LOL.

For real, I am trying to figure this out. It is snowing in Spirit Lake, and supposed to get a few inches in Hayden tonight, so prob Coeur d'Alene too. New listings have been all but non existent this week. So that's either an anomaly or the market is going to slow from an inventory standpoint. Who wants the mess of showing your house with snow and mess outside? I sure wouldn't. My realtor says the area is still laden with buyers, and they aren't going anywhere. It's a real ugly situation if you are a buyer.

[oregonwoodsmoke]

This massive building boom in CDA and all the people moving into the area was happening way before Covid. Covid might allow a few hopefuls that couldn't move because of their jobs to now move because they are suddenly being allowed to work from home.


But for several years, the builders have been paving over the prairie and covering every empty space with new housing developments.


Quite honestly, there are neighborhoods of nice new houses that are exactly the same as new neighborhoods anywhere in this country and they look and feel the same as standing in a neighborhood in California, or any other crowded place. The new houses, you can reach out and touch both houses at the same time, just like in any other over-crowded city. The architecture is the same as in any other crowded city.



I suspect that when all the open space is filled, the nice views are no longer there because they are covered in houses, and the lakes are getting hard to access because the parking is always all filled up, that this area might become less desirable.

[nm9stheham]

Originally Posted by Memphis Eric

I was extremely lucky to beat the rush and high lumber prices.

That is certainly another factor in the present price spike of new houses, and when new house prices go up, so do used house prices.

Fortunately, the timber supply is catching back up, and the mills are putting on more lines, and the lumber price situation is coming back in line. 8' long 2x4's at the local box stores here went down to $3 in spring, then jumped to $8 1-2 months ago and now are back down to just over $6, and I suspect will keep dropping.

If you are a stats junkie LOL and want to see where this is going.... keep track of something called 'lumber commodity price index'. This fell from the 300-400 range at the start of the year to around 250 as the COVID situation hit, and the suppliers and mills cut back. The demand then not only recovered but surged, and the lumber market got a double-whammy.... falling supply at a time with surging demand. The above index jumped to over 800 in the last couple of months, but has quickly dropped back to the 520's range and is continuing down.

So this price surge in lumber will hopefully work through the residential market by next spring.

[nm9stheham]

Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke

Quite honestly, there are neighborhoods of nice new houses that are exactly the same as new neighborhoods anywhere in this country and they look and feel the same as standing in a neighborhood in California, or any other crowded place. The new houses, you can reach out and touch both houses at the same time, just like in any other over-crowded city. The architecture is the same as in any other crowded city.

I suspect that when all the open space is filled, the nice views are no longer there because they are covered in houses, and the lakes are getting hard to access because the parking is always all filled up, that this area might become less desirable.

Yeah, I was thinking of this exact thing yesterday. Volume demand in any area will do this...the same complaints were being aired in the 50's and 60's with the proliferation of tract homes across the nation. Look up 'Huber Homes' in the Dayton OH area.....

[redwood66]

Originally Posted by volosong

It's simply a matter of the economic law of "Supply and Demand". Won't change until most of the Baby Boomers have retired. The other driving force is those of one political persuasion leaving an area controlled by the opposite political philosophy.

Then there is the competing interest between those already here who want to preserve what little prairie is left against those who would develop it for urban uses. Restrict the supply of something and the cost of it will increase.

This is a dilemma. My most favorite farmer on the prairie passed away at a relatively young age awhile ago. He had farmed quite a bit of the area between Rathdrum and Post Falls for decades. In our conversations he said that in the past few years he shifted his crops from mostly hay to grains because the demand for hay has dropped dramatically as cattle and horse owners diminish locally. His grains were being shipped overseas. I have watched the fields he was leasing turn to housing developments.

[redwood66]

As to the original question, I don't think we will see a drop any time soon as Mike said. The prices are crazy and not much inventory. We go back and forth whether to sell or not but as we watch the prices get ridiculous in Boundary (where we wanted to be) it looks like staying until our needs change is what we will most likely do. I only have one more move in me and it has to be right. We might be among those who move to better climate without acreage when we are older as our horses won't live forever so why move now?

[DvrGrl]

Originally Posted by Memphis Eric

I think several factors are contributing to housing prices in North Idaho - more people are able to work from home, migrations from more COVID restricted states (this also falls under political affiliation but I think a lot of families want to live a somewhat normal life without shutdowns), low interest rates and fear of missing out.

I live in Tennessee but purchased land in Sagle five years ago in hopes to build a vacation/retirement home. After working with an architect and finally a builder in my budget I was able to start building in early March. I had thought I made a huge mistake and feared the housing market was going to crash after the virus spread and stock market was dropping rapidly. I was extremely lucky to beat the rush and high lumber prices.

Supply and demand are also playing a big role in the surge of prices. My contractor told me back in July that most home builders in the area are booked up for 2 to 3 years. Even this late in the build we are finding it hard to schedule subcontractors and tradespeople. I know nationally there is shortage of high school graduates going into building trades and this is contributing to the shortage of houses.

From my experience in following the North Idaho market in the last six years (outside looking in) is this year is anomaly but I still think there is possibility of the last of the surge to continue into next year. After that I feel like it might be a more gradual increase in prices (but who knows what will happen especially after this crazy year).

If people are able to afford a house in North Idaho and "work from home" becomes permanent you are going to probably see a lot more migration there. At some point the prices will get too high and/or restrictions become lifted and people will decide to stay in their current home.

Memphis Eric—congrats on getting ahead of the current craziness! We bought our retirement house in Sagle 3 winters ago and have been working on it ever since. Now that we want to renovate our interior, we have found the same—almost everyone booked out 2-3 years. Luckily we got all the big stuff done so can live in our house as is, we just learned after renovating our last house to sell (the master bath needed a huge upgrade) that we wished we had done it earlier as the improvement in quality of life in a house that “Works” for the way we live was so much more impactful than we had imagined. I’ve also sent you a direct message with a question for you. Best of luck on your house—hope the exterior envelope is complete with this snow!