Atlantic - Tammy forms October 18, 2023 (warm, rainfall, day, storm)
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
As of Wed 18Oct 5pEDT: Satellite estimated Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving quickly 23mph(37km/h), pressure 1007mb. Air recon arriving into the Caribbean this afternoon/evening to check out in person soon.
TS Watch Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe. Center about 575miles(925km) E of the islands, TS winds extend out up to 140miles(220km) - large blob of breezy scattered showers.
Expected to turn up, clip NE Caribbean region or pass very near to Friday/Sat, up between High Pressure over Atlantic and strong cold front leaving US. NHC with 65mph TS near the islands. Warm waters but some wind shear and dry air nearby, if those get in likely weaker, if can keep at bay then potentially a little stronger.
Thurs 19Oct 8aEDT: Air recon in storm has winds 60mph(95km/h) (mostly to the N/NE, much calmer winds SW/W side currently, SE corner not sampled yet), moving West 16mph(26km/h), pressure 1004mb.
TS Watch added earlier to Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius. NHC with 3-6in, isolated 10in rainfall East/NE Caribbean islands, 1-2in, isolated 4in Virgin Islands / Puerto Rico.
Sat 21Oct 8pEDT: winds 85mph(140km/h), moving NNW 10mph(17km/h), pressure 989mb. Has turned center point up just missing the islands with that turn but right against Barbuda currently where may clip. Storm pulls away Sunday but scattered showers in the region longer as turns more North.
Tues 24Oct 5aEDT: winds 75mph(120km/h), moving NE 9mph(15km/h), pressure 987mb. Stretched out on Satellite as approaches passing front/trough. But tight little core.
Trough may/ may not turn system out to sea right away now. High May build North of storm and its clockwise flow turns storm West. Models split. Overall they show storm curve back NW/W some then turn back out to sea with very few, but not zero, keep it W/SW direction.
NHC with the curve back West for the 5 day cone. Will be another day or 2 likely before see another turn at end of that cone assuming models continue to overall favor another turn back out to sea.
NHC with Storm loosing its tropical characteristics later this week too. TS Watch may be issued for Bermuda later today.
Tues 24Oct 11aEDT: winds 75mph(120km/h), moving NE 8mph(13km/h), pressure 987mb. No changes. NHC still has peaking tomorrow, followed by steady weakening and transition to non-tropical cyclone thereafter.
Tues 24Oct 5pEDT: winds 75mph(120km/h), moving NE 8mph(13km/h), pressure 987mb.
With no current Watch/Warnings for land, updates are only issued at 5 and 11a/pEDT. If Bermuda gets TS Watch then they'll add updates back for the 2 & 8a/pEDT times.
Wed 25Oct 11aEDT: winds 105mph(165km/h), moving NE 13mph(20km/h), pressure 965mb. Cat2. About at peak now. Majority of model guidance has slowing SE of Bermuda as curves back, then turning back out this weekend.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
