NOVA S44 EP17 Killer Hurricanes (climate, warm, ice, average)

[Cambium]

You guys ever watch this episode? Let us know what you think.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voIKmd0MxA0&t=1030s

[Cambium]

My thoughts:

The little ice age was only 120-700 yrs ago. We basically just came out of it. Before the Little Ice Age waters were warm and we had more major hurricanes than we do today. Whether we will soon have as many is yet to be seen and just a "prediction" right now but it is a natural cycle..

This graph from the video shows major hurricanes in yellow and water temps in blue. Note when there were more major hurricanes the water temps were generally warmer. Obviously. Note less major hurricanes happened during little ice age but keep in mind they still happened.

Watch the video below. Start at 31:58

Ship entries, journals, Core samples from sediments and cave stalagmites were used to determine this.



I like to ignore the fear mongering stuff and focus on data, science, and history of things. They never mentioned what caused the warming of the past surely it wasn't fossil fuels, CO2 or lawn mowers. I'd rather discuss history than "predict" what "MIGHT" happen.

[unobtainium]

The warming you see peaking after 800 is the Medieval Climate Anomaly (aka Medieval Warm Period). Interesting that there is a double peak in SST and hurricanes with the second peak being around 1200.

Over the last decade the data has become more robust and multi-proxy reconstructions show the medieval warmth was regional, not global (North Atlantic dominated), and that it was probably no warmer than today. That suggests it was related to systems like the North Atlantic Oscillation (maybe stuck in a positive mode more often) and ENSO. Other factors could have been a lower than average number of volcanic eruptions (which cause not only colder temperatures but can change ocean circulation patterns through feedback loops) and increased solar activity.

The current warming is quite different though because it's global rather than regional. It's also clearly a greenhouse effect because satellite measurements show that the stratosphere (upper atmosphere) is actually cooling, while the lower atmosphere is warming. So we know with 100% certainty that it is a greenhouse effect, we know where the greenhouse gases are coming from, we know the oceans are absorbing a lot of that additional heat and have been for decades. This doesn't necessarily show up in SSTs, because the deep oceans can absorb and store a ton of heat. There can be a long delay time in seeing all the effects of that. I doubt this generation will really see catastrophic effects from the warming, but future generations will live in a very different world.