Atlantic - Franklin forms August 20, 2023 (rainfall, day, storms, seasons)

[Psychoma]

Sunday 20Aug 5pEDT/AST - Air recon finds Invest 90L in Eastern Caribbean becomes TS Franklin. Winds 45mph(75km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1002mb.

TS Watch portions of Haiti of Dominican Republic. (Hispaniola). System may near Hispaniola mid week.

Heavy rains:
Puerto Rico: 2-4in(50-100mm), isolated 6in+(150mm)
Hispaniola: 4-8in(100-200mm), isolated 12in+(300mm)

Likely to strengthen before Hispaniola (NHC with 65mph towards landfall), depending how terrain affects core, expected to quickly strengthen to hurricane once recovers and enters Atlantic.


Although the 5 day cone has it turning more NNE / NE by 2nd half of week, models show it may kind of zig zag back and forth as overall heads North-ish. So we'll see what becomes of it eventually.

[gball721]

I've been seeing this 'Atlantic system in the Caribbean just heads straight north' pattern a few times in recent hurricane seasons. May the pattern continue as much as it can. (no offense, Bermudians) Stay safe, all.

[Psychoma]

Sun 20Aug 8pEDT/AST (Updates are every 3hrs since a Watch is posted for land). Winds 45mph(75km/h), moving WNW 14mph(22km/h), pressure 1001mb.

[Psychoma]

Mon 5aEDT/AST: Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving W 12mph(19km/h), pressure 999mb. Satellite says about the same shape as last night still.

TS Warning S side of Hispaniola, Watch North side (except NW corner, no watch/warning).

Expected to turn from West to North on Tuesday, cross Hispaniola late Tues / early Wed.

[Psychoma]

Tues 22Aug 5pEDT: Winds 40mph(65km/h), moving NW 7mph(11km/h), pressure 1002mb. Basically storm has done nothing / fell apart since Monday. It is showing some spin again this evening, closer to storms firing, so may have a center relocate tonight sometime and slow organization try again perhaps as heads to Hispaniola.

Total event rainfall for Hispaniola up some to possible 5-10in, isolated 15in.

Still expected to zigzag off the US East coast as a hurricane this weekend through next week, which would give waves and increase rip current threats. Moves North over Hispaniola, turns NE/E, then back NW as goes between 2 High pressures, eventually getting picked up by a trough moving through the Northeast US / East Canada later next week is the thinking.

Models overall keep out to sea, some clip Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland, almost all keep well off the US coast.

[Psychoma]

Wed 23Aug 5aEDT: Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving N 10mph(17km/h), pressure 1000mb. Close to Hispaniola now, heavy rains over Dominican Republic.

[Psychoma]

Thurs 24Aug 5aEDT/AST: Winds 50mph(85km/h), moving N 13mph(20km/h), pressure 1001mb. No Watch/Warnings in effect. Continues to pull further away from Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and Turks and Caicos Islands (some scattered showers will persist today).


Storms mainly East of center. NHC has near Cat3 strength between Bermuda and the Carolina's to start next week as heads North eventually. Uncomfortably close to the US but for now models indicate it'll stay out to sea, possibly clipping Bermuda, Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland.

[gball721]

Thanks as always for all the updates, Psychoma.

[Psychoma]

Thurs 24Aug 5pEDT/AST: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving ENE 8mph(13km/h), pressure 998mb. No changes in track.

[Psychoma]

Fri 25Aug 5aEDT/AST: Winds 60mph(95km/h), moving ENE 6mph(9km/h), pressure 1000mb. LLC exposed, wind shear pushed all storms off to the Southeast, but will get out of shear this weekend and start strengthening.


Rip currents next week will be high, just as head into busy Labor Day weekend.