Predictions: Georgia turns blue next election?

[Bullbear]

Originally Posted by Akhenaton06

Since we are rapidly headed towards a majority-minority nation, that tells you a lot about the future of the movement.

Never mind the inherent contradiction in your statement. By definition, minorities cannot be majorities

Rapidly is overstating it, at best. And only ASSUMING current trends continue as they are for another 20 years at least.

Notwithstanding your obvious glee, even if such comes to pass, whites will still be the largest single racial group.

The TP movement is not dependent on race. It just needs good people who understand the principles on which the country was founded and became so remarkably successful. Minorities who come here for their piece of the american dream may not take kindly to it being ripped from their grasp by "progressive" policies.

One wonders why, the world over, there is no place where progressively minded groups have built up such a wonderful environment that others flock to it. Or why, as in Europe, their immigrants seek to overtake and dominate the very culture that created the success in the first place.

The demise and/or extinction of the tea party movement and those who support it is wildly over stated - not matter how much one wishes it.

[Akhenaton06]

Originally Posted by Bullbear

Rapidly is overstating it, at best. And only ASSUMING current trends continue as they are for another 20 years at least.

I see no signs that they won't.

Notwithstanding your obvious glee, even if such comes to pass, whites will still be the largest single racial group.

"Glee"? It is merely an observation, one corroborated from reputable sources.

The TP movement is not dependent on race.

Theoretically? No. Practically? Absolutely.

The demise and/or extinction of the tea party movement and those who support it is wildly over stated - not matter how much one wishes it.

In its current form, it is simply an unsustainable movement. But we'll see what happens with time.

[Bullbear]

Originally Posted by Akhenaton06

I see no signs that they won't.

Trends always look like they will last forever when they are ongoing. When inflation was at its peak, I remember hearing how eventually a gallon of milk would cost a hundred dollars, etc.

Projecting far into the future is rarely a successful endeavor. No one knows what THIS November will look like. Time, indeed, will tell.

[Akhenaton06]

Originally Posted by Bullbear

Trends always look like they will last forever when they are ongoing. When inflation was at its peak, I remember hearing how eventually a gallon of milk would cost a hundred dollars, etc.

Projecting far into the future is rarely a successful endeavor. No one knows what THIS November will look like. Time, indeed, will tell.

Economic trends are very different then demographic trends. The latter tend to be predicted with much more accuracy than the former.

[K-SawDude]

Originally Posted by wxjay

LOL - even Democratic strategists know that the Tea Party movement is something that is growing and is a significant factor for the upcoming elections. Trust me, they ARE taking them seriously. No, they are not a major political party, but when nearly 40% of Americans say they agree with issues that the Tea Party supports, there is a problem.

They really aren't all that different than the core, fiscally conservative (and white) constituency of conservative Republicans who vote in most elections. This has been shown in a few recent polls, including a Pew poll. The media would LOVE to present them as some sort of new phenomenon--even an independent one. But they are essentially a more energized version of a core constituency that's been around for years--and NOT, as they'd have you believe, a Perot-style "movement."

But if they show up to the polls in larger numbers than usual--which I suspect they will--the Democrats should be a little nervous.

[wxjay]

Originally Posted by Akhenaton06

Economic trends are very different then demographic trends. The latter tend to be predicted with much more accuracy than the former.

Can you give an example or two? For example, what were the predictions made in 1980 or 1990 about demographics and/or population in Atlanta proper in 2000 or 2010? I am just curious because both are based on statistical models with some dynamics but not much. And like anything else, new models and new factors always change predictions.

[green_mariner]

I look at the title of this thread. This was nearly 12 years ago. Georgia still hasn't gone completely blue. It's been getting close, and the demographics certainly favor Georgia turning blue. At the same time, it hasn't happened yet. And not for lack of trying. I think about the 2018 gubernatorial race. Brian Kemp basically rigged his own election. I partly think gerrymandering is playing a role.

[USARoadTrip]

Originally Posted by green_mariner

I look at the title of this thread. This was nearly 12 years ago. Georgia still hasn't gone completely blue. It's been getting close, and the demographics certainly favor Georgia turning blue. At the same time, it hasn't happened yet. And not for lack of trying. I think about the 2018 gubernatorial race. Brian Kemp basically rigged his own election. I partly think gerrymandering is playing a role.

I agree, if not for all the rigging and gerrymandering, it would have been fair game for Stacy Abrams.. I don't have any hopes of Georgia flipping or Trump losing in the presidential elections. The economy is healthy and people are prosperous compared to 4 years ago which bodes well for the incumbent..

This whole coronavirus thing might throw a wrench into the march to re-election though. I don't think it's any more deadler than a flu but the media induced panic might bring a recession upon an otherwise healthy economy..