Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta, Washington, Millen: crime rate, wages, racist)

[DreamerD]

Originally Posted by Forhall

For all of you saying Abrams can't win or the Republican will be our next governor, let me say something very important.

Last night, 48(!!) percent of voters chose a democratic ballot. That is HUGE. In the last competitive governor Primary the ballots we're split 63-36 for Republicans and they ended up winning by 10. In the last presidential primary, 2016, ballots were split 60-39 for Republicans and Trump won by 5. On average, Democrats do about 9% better since 2010 than the primary split. This shows massive democratic enthusiasm.

Further, huge metro counties Gwinnet and Cobb pulled more democratic ballots than republican. Those are counties that Deal won by over 10% each. There has been huge changes since our last governor election and Abrams can definitely win.

I hope people are urging young voters to vote because if it's anything like I saw at work...not good.

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by Forhall

For all of you saying Abrams can't win or the Republican will be our next governor, let me say something very important.

Last night, 48(!!) percent of voters chose a democratic ballot. That is HUGE. In the last competitive governor Primary the ballots we're split 63-36 for Republicans and they ended up winning by 10. In the last presidential primary, 2016, ballots were split 60-39 for Republicans and Trump won by 5. On average, Democrats do about 9% better since 2010 than the primary split. This shows massive democratic enthusiasm.

Further, huge metro counties Gwinnet and Cobb pulled more democratic ballots than republican. Those are counties that Deal won by over 10% each. There has been huge changes since our last governor election and Abrams can definitely win.

Put another way:
Republican primary
2010: 680k votes
2018: 606k votes (down 74k)

2010: 395k votes
2018: 553k votes (up 158k)

[Forhall]

Originally Posted by ronricks

If the voter turnout in these open primaries means anything, Republicans are vastly outvoting Democrats in Georgia. Not a good look.

It does mean something, that Democrats usually outperform their primary split by 9-10 percent. Usually the split is between 20-30 points for republican ballots and they win between 5-10 in the general.

Last night the split was 4 points....52-48. if Democrats outperform that gap as usual, then it's Governor Abrams.

[-thomass]

Originally Posted by Forhall

Put another way:
Republican primary
2010: 680k votes
2018: 606k votes (down 74k)

2010: 395k votes
2018: 553k votes (up 158k)

Wow. The GA Republican Party is in trouble. I’ve been saying this for a while. Republicans like kemp and Cagle need to change their approach. The traditional southern conservative vote is being diluted

[Iconographer]

Originally Posted by DreamerD

I hope people are urging young voters to vote because if it's anything like I saw at work...not good.

If they had the option of voting on their devices, it would revolutionize American politics.

[jero23]

[quote=DreamerD;51978561]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

The big story of Alabama was a record turnout among black voters, esp black women. Even as bad Roy Moore was, Doug Jones still had to fight hard for that razor-thin victory. He made a huge push for black voters and if he hadn't, he wouldn't have won. Enough Republican voters were disgusted enough to stay at home, which allowed him to take the win. So he didn't really make a lot of traction with white voters there even with his moderate stance.



I remember this. I found it pretty nauseating that even though he did not win, so many people went out to support that disgusting low life.

The same nauseating tripe is common in the US South Republican politicos in general. Remember David Vitter was reelected even though he was proven to be a part of a sex ring and prostitution ring in the 2000s. The same thing with Newt Gingrich, whom left his sick wife as well. Morals and ethics seems to not matter to many white Southern GOP voters.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by Forhall

For all of you saying Abrams can't win or the Republican will be our next governor, let me say something very important.

Last night, 48(!!) percent of voters chose a democratic ballot. That is HUGE. In the last competitive governor Primary the ballots we're split 63-36 for Republicans and they ended up winning by 10. In the last presidential primary, 2016, ballots were split 60-39 for Republicans and Trump won by 5. On average, Democrats do about 9% better since 2010 than the primary split. This shows massive democratic enthusiasm.

Further, huge metro counties Gwinnet and Cobb pulled more democratic ballots than republican. Those are counties that Deal won by over 10% each. There has been huge changes since our last governor election and Abrams can definitely win.

Wow that is big news! I always try to suppress hope because for so many years I've been heartbroken on Election Day, but it seems that even though its still an uphill climb, Democrats have a better shot at winning this than at any time in recent history.

I think it would be a huge victory if they even just make it much closer than expected. The nation is watching GA and everyone seems to expect Abrams to be slaughtered. If she wins or beats expectations, this would push the Democratic Party, both on the state and national level, decidedly left.

IMO, I think the true "center" of the nation is now much further left than where folks assume that it is. It's just a matter of time we get a realignment after nearly 40 decades of moving right.

[sciblue]

Originally Posted by DreamerD

I hope people are urging young voters to vote because if it's anything like I saw at work...not good.

I keep in touch with many, many former students via social media. They have overwhelmingly been active in politics including voter registration, getting out to campaign, and actually voting. These are people who are in their 20's. I'm so proud of them!

I truly believe Republican control in Georgia is going to erode in the next few elections. They may never regain control when that happens.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by Forhall

Put another way:
Republican primary
2010: 680k votes
2018: 606k votes (down 74k)

2010: 395k votes
2018: 553k votes (up 158k)

Wow, that is really striking! Is it same to assume +158K on the Democratic side are mostly new voters and not GOP converts? Either way, that's reason to feel good since these numbers make clear that Democrats are much more excited than Republicans. I don't see Republicans getting enthused about Cagle even if they hate Abrams--just like Democratic voters never did get enthused about HRC despite their deep hatred and fear of Trump.

The stats about Dems overperformance their primary performance is encouraging too.

It's probably good for Abrams that everyone is underestimating the Democrats' chances.

[stoxdiamond]

Young voter turnout has been abysmal for a long time. As awful as the Republican candidates are, the base will be out to reluctantly vote for whomever is on the ballot come November. If Abrams has any chance, it'll require an first term Obama-esque turnout from young voters.

I do think that younger voters (post-Millennial) are becoming more active in politics. Today's high school kids are going to make their voices heard over the next decade, IMO.