Homes going up or Down in Price? (Cape Coral, Lee: short sale, foreclose)

[equalrightsforeveryone]

There is still a denial factor on the people that keep insisting that the rest of the country does not matter.
This makes absolutely no sense what so ever, everything in SWFL depends on outside dollars. The people that buy home here are mostly outsiders like myself that bring money they made elsewhere in or out the country.
Swfl is entirely dependent on the influx of funds that come here from out of state, there is no industry here no high wage jobs, and no out look for any improvement in the near future.
But some folks insist that the rest of the economy does not matter and only what is going on in SWFL does, that is the most ludicrous argument I have ever heard.
SWFL is entirely dependent on outside funds, therefore what happens in the rest of the country and world directly effects SWFL, anyone that says otherwise has no grip on reality what so ever.
Reality check is required here.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by yachtcare

Took a leisurely drive up Country Club yesterday and saw a couple "by owner" signs on some decent looking houses.... one was $59,900.00 the other at $69,900.00. The one at 69K shocked me a bit. $59K about floored me.

I didnt stop to look at them, but in the drive by they looked rather nice.

Kev's level of analysis cannot be matched on this forum. But as I have noted in the past, analysis also needs to be tempered with some anecdotal evidence as well.

Yachtcare's simple minded observation......values are still going down.

YC.......

currently there are 444 homes for sale in cape coral that are priced over 1 million dollars, so I guess depending on what streets you are driving down can persuade your anecdotal evidence. The biggest problem with anecdotal evidence is that many people are closed minded and only see what is in line with their preconceived notions.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

There is still a denial factor on the people that keep insisting that the rest of the country does not matter.
This makes absolutely no sense what so ever, everything in SWFL depends on outside dollars. The people that buy home here are mostly outsiders like myself that bring money they made elsewhere in or out the country.
Swfl is entirely dependent on the influx of funds that come here from out of state, there is no industry here no high wage jobs, and no out look for any improvement in the near future.
But some folks insist that the rest of the economy does not matter and only what is going on in SWFL does, that is the most ludicrous argument I have ever heard.
SWFL is entirely dependent on outside funds, therefore what happens in the rest of the country and world directly effects SWFL, anyone that says otherwise has no grip on reality what so ever.
Reality check is required here.

I am in agreeance that what happens in the rest of the country/world has some effect. For instance.. when the euro dropped it did have an effect on home sales here. When the stock market dropped not as many people would be buying 2nd homes. But what you are missing entirely is this....The home prices are up despite all these things. So my stance is much more optimistic.. when unemployment nationally gets better there will be even more demand here. When lending standards loosen up to normal levels nationally it will get even better here. All these bad things are happening and Lee county has already seen bottom, it has already started to increase, so as the national things start to get better than this area should start accelerating. things have been getting better in just about every category in Lee county.


although something doesn't always make sense it doesn't mean it is incorrect... For example show me any of your statistics that show a direct correlation between them and SWfl real estate prices. When unemployment rates were rising so were sales (it makes no sense on the surface but that is what happened)


I guess the biggest problem I have with the negative mindset is this.. If you believed that prices were going to go down because you thought the stock market was going to have a double dip, foreclosures were going to rise, unemployment was going to rise, interest rates were going to rise. I could at least except that there is some validity to your opinion. But when foreclosures went down, unemployment went down,stock market went up, interest rates still low, but someone continues to say it is still going to go down then it is puzzling because if all their reasons for thinking so didn't happen then why would they keep that stance? My opinions are and always have been data dependant, when I see things that I think are going to have a bad effect on the market I say them, just look back at my posts when the euro was falling the tax credit was expiring and the oil spill wasn't capped, all going into the slowest time of the year for sales. I predicted the inventories would rise and would put downward pressure on prices. As soon as the euro rebounded the oil spill was capped and we started coming out of the summer doldrems I changed my opinion and almost within a month the inventories started to fall again and prices started up again. No matter what happens increased or decreased in unemployment, foreclosures, etc it all has to do with the inventory figure and that's it. Nothing else. Don't read any prediction, article, anything just check the inventory levels and that will tell you where prices are going. In January they jumped up a little (I think due mostly to bad weather) In february they have jumped back down (currently 2400 in cape coral). The only correlation that I have noticed between real estate prices is this .... when the inventory numbers go above 2600 prices decrease. when they go below 2300 they start to rise .. between the two they bounce around between 89k and 94k.

a logical person would think if unemployment was higher, more people would lose their homes, more homes would go on the market increasing the inventory, prices would have to come down. The reason why this has not been the case is because it is completely ignoring the other side of the supply/demand. the demand is there are 10 people waiting and fighting over that 1 foreclosure keeping the price from falling and keeping the inventory from increasing. and the person that lost the home owed 3x's more than what the new buyer paid for it. The economic outcome is positive... the person that lost the house that cost them $2400 a month is now going to rent a similar place for $900 month.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

Reported on FNC again tonight Foreclosure will continue to increase in 2011
There seems to be no end to it.

[rikoshaprl]

Where Home Prices Are Rising - Forbes.com
Home prices rising! (Of course this is national news and has little to do with SW Florida).

[hiknapster]

Foreclosure picture worsens || Gulf Coast Business Review | Tampa Bay, Bradenton, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples

And this was after some banks, like BofA, stopped taking foreclosure action.

[rikoshaprl]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

Foreclosure picture worsens || Gulf Coast Business Review | Tampa Bay, Bradenton, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples

And this was after some banks, like BofA, stopped taking foreclosure action.

The article does say that Cape Coral/ Fort Myers foreclosures were down 1.38% in the period measured and that 90 day delinquency rates were down 3.23%. That's good, right?

[nhkev]

http://http://www.news-press.com/article/20110210/RE/102100379/Foreclosures-dive-Florida-least-now?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Home (broken link)

I can't tell if this link is working or not.it is front page of online newspress , based off realtytracs jan 2011 numbers. The only reason I'm showing this is because the people who call themselves experts are not experts at all. What people are missing is this... if realtytrac counts all stages of the foreclosure process as a foreclosure it vastly overstates the foreclosure problem on the way up. but the same holds true when foreclosures start to subside it can have the same effect as making it look like there were 75% less foreclosures. Not sure if that makes as much sense to everyone else as it does in my mind. and the other thing is there is a certain amount that the robo doc scandal is having in the overall numbers, but it should be effecting all areas of the country and lee county isn't even in the top 5 in florida alone and not even in the top 50 in the country (at least for january).

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

Foreclosure picture worsens || Gulf Coast Business Review | Tampa Bay, Bradenton, Sarasota, Fort Myers, Naples

And this was after some banks, like BofA, stopped taking foreclosure action.

core logic is a pretty reputable company as far as data goes. The only issue is what are they using for data and what are they comparing it to. for example. whenever they are using "homes with mortgages" if 70% of the homes being bought are being paid cash 2% of the homes with mortgages being repo'd by banks may be a smaller number than an area with 1% of homes repo'd when only 30% of the homes are being paid cash. The homes with mortgages pool is a shrinking pool so the analogy is this ... I have a gallon container that is half full, 50% full I pour it into a half gallon container it now appears to be 100% full,,, but it is the same amount of water. if the pool gets smaller the percentages can increase

I also try not to take any data point at one moment of time and compare to another moment in time. for example say there was a decrease of 3% in one month , well if there was a 3% decrease in each month that is a 36% annual decrease.... if one month had a 3% decrease but all the rest had a 1% increase it would be a 9% annual increase.

[equalrightsforeveryone]

It's Called a DEAD cat bounce
"We still think the numbers will bounce back to higher levels," he said, because mainly what's happened is that the state's been hit harder than the rest of the country by a wave of alleged improprieties in the way lenders and their lawyers handled foreclosures.

"It's a delay in the foreclosure as opposed to a long-term cessation," Blomquist said. "The big question is how long that delay is going to be. We've already seen some other states starting to come back from the artificial trough."
Full story
Foreclosures dive in Florida, at least for now | The News-Press | news-press.com