What happens in Florida when Castro dies? (Miami, University: real estate, lawyers)
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Lets talk about this one, what are your views?
The University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies says federal agencies currently estimate Castro's death will bring 8,000 to 10,000 refugees to the country, primarily to South Florida. The institute's estimates are much higher - as many as 500,000 individuals would seek economic opportunity in the United States if Castro's successor fails to make good on promises for a better life.
Can you imagine a cuban exodus to Florida?
Many analysts believe the real Cuban change will not happen in Havana, "It will happen in Washington."
armegeddon, not just for florida....they will flee everywhere...ny, boston. chicago, ca....no room or work for them in south florida, theyll shooot right up the coast for work
Lets talk about this one, what are your views?
The University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies says federal agencies currently estimate Castro's death will bring 8,000 to 10,000 refugees to the country, primarily to South Florida. The institute's estimates are much higher - as many as 500,000 individuals would seek economic opportunity in the United States if Castro's successor fails to make good on promises for a better life.
Can you imagine a cuban exodus to Florida?
Many analysts believe the real Cuban change will not happen in Havana, "It will happen in Washington."
It is going to be "UN-BE-LIEVABLE". Every Cuban person I know is already making plans to bring every last family member here when they can. I would lean towards the 500,000 number and maybe more. There is no way South Florida is going to be able to deal with it. Better get out of town now while the getting is good because it is coming, not if, when.
Location: Lots of sun and palm trees with occasional hurricane :)
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I am Cuban. Despite the fact that there are many of us, especially here in South Florida, who would like to have their families with them, I don't think there will be THAT many who will totally relocate their relatives to Florida. You have to realize a few things.
Those of us who have been here forever do not have a lot of family left there. Our Cuban families are here and our 2nd and 3rd generations are here, born here. If we have anyone left in Cuba, they are mostly elderly who would be a real problem in the States. There are also elderly people here who have left their children (as in young to middle age adults) in Cuba.
I don't know anybody who wanted to leave Cuba when Castro wasn't around and until he showed his Marxist-Leninist colors. If it had not been for Castro (or similar), you would probably be able to count on your two hands the Cubans that would be here full-time.
Anybody who was born in the last 50 years in Cuba and has been there all along is a different breed of Cuban. We don't have a whole hell of a lot in common. Most of these Cubans ARE well educated degrees wise. Not socially, probably not even culturally. It's a very different lifestyle down there and things run completely differently from the States.
You will have those who do come, those who will return to Cuba.
Raul (Fidel's brother) is no spring chicken. He wouldn't last that much longer either but he is more selfish and more interested in what we can give Cuba in terms of tourism dollars and other luxuries. He is also not as strong, nor has the backing or following of the general population.
I believe Cuba will start a tremendous change and become a beautiful, prosperous and free island once again. I think all Cubans will come and go and we might even expect a bridge to and from the Keys for those who don't have boats.
As for the UM Institute, it's all planned and only a matter of time.
Personally, I hope Cuba becomes livable (to my standards) within the next 10 years because I will be one of those who will be going back and forth like our snowbirds do, except I'll be a "sunbird". I don't even know Cuba but I've heard lots of stories and seen lots of pictures. I would love to spend some time there in the future.
That's a nice post, vpcats, and very true to what I have experienced. And I am hoping to be a sunbird too someday!
It's going to be a family reunion, with squabbles. Some will come here, some there, and life will go on.
I remember 1959, and I remember 1980. It will take a huge upheaval to get people to leave cuba if they have been born and living there since 1959. Back then, you had doctors, lawyers, professionals getting on rafts and coming to miami, taking menial jobs until they got established, learned english (yes, they did) and got their credentials in order to resume their professions. I really doubt you will have that kind of migration. I think you are going to see a family reunion, extended visits, and traffic back and forth when it opens up. And I really hope to go there someday and see it for myself.
I am Cuban. Despite the fact that there are many of us, especially here in South Florida, who would like to have their families with them, I don't think there will be THAT many who will totally relocate their relatives to Florida. You have to realize a few things.
Those of us who have been here forever do not have a lot of family left there. Our Cuban families are here and our 2nd and 3rd generations are here, born here. If we have anyone left in Cuba, they are mostly elderly who would be a real problem in the States. There are also elderly people here who have left their children (as in young to middle age adults) in Cuba.
I don't know anybody who wanted to leave Cuba when Castro wasn't around and until he showed his Marxist-Leninist colors. If it had not been for Castro (or similar), you would probably be able to count on your two hands the Cubans that would be here full-time.
Anybody who was born in the last 50 years in Cuba and has been there all along is a different breed of Cuban. We don't have a whole hell of a lot in common. Most of these Cubans ARE well educated degrees wise. Not socially, probably not even culturally. It's a very different lifestyle down there and things run completely differently from the States.
You will have those who do come, those who will return to Cuba.
Raul (Fidel's brother) is no spring chicken. He wouldn't last that much longer either but he is more selfish and more interested in what we can give Cuba in terms of tourism dollars and other luxuries. He is also not as strong, nor has the backing or following of the general population.
I believe Cuba will start a tremendous change and become a beautiful, prosperous and free island once again. I think all Cubans will come and go and we might even expect a bridge to and from the Keys for those who don't have boats.
As for the UM Institute, it's all planned and only a matter of time.
Personally, I hope Cuba becomes livable (to my standards) within the next 10 years because I will be one of those who will be going back and forth like our snowbirds do, except I'll be a "sunbird". I don't even know Cuba but I've heard lots of stories and seen lots of pictures. I would love to spend some time there in the future.
My father used to go to Cuba all the time, it was one of the things that brought him here from New Jersey in the late 40's. Cuba has the potential to rival any resort in the world, Monte Carlo, Hawaii you name it. It is huge and has everything. The problem is, the corruption will be almost instant and arrive from every corner of the world. The Cuban people may benefit but it could spin so out of control as to be a nightmare for the Cuban people. I don't see Cubans who have been in the US for many years going back and those that have prospered will want their families here. I would if I was a Cuban. The future of Cuba is very uncertain without Castro and could become a very unstable place.
Location: Lots of sun and palm trees with occasional hurricane :)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by macguy
My father used to go to Cuba all the time, it was one of the things that brought him here from New Jersey in the late 40's. Cuba has the potential to rival any resort in the world, Monte Carlo, Hawaii you name it. It is huge and has everything. The problem is, the corruption will be almost instant and arrive from every corner of the world. The Cuban people may benefit but it could spin so out of control as to be a nightmare for the Cuban people. I don't see Cubans who have been in the US for many years going back and those that have prospered will want their families here. I would if I was a Cuban. The future of Cuba is very uncertain without Castro and could become a very unstable place.
Of course there will some instability. All change causes some type of uncertainty, confusion, corruption. But everything takes its course eventually.
You know what I think was one of the worst things that could have happened to Communist Cuba yet, at the same time one of the best things?
When Castro needed dollars and started allowing US Cubans to visit their families in Cuba. That was a big eye opener for those in Cuba, especially for the younger generation who never knew any better. They got to "see" a whole other world they didn't quite know existed.
Things will happen but just wait, it'll all be over real soon and the island will be rebuilt quicker than you can bat an eyelid. All the infrastructure is already done, on paper, all the new construction while preserving old and historical landmarks are modelled, everything has been thought out and all the Ts are crossed. Remember there really ARE a lot of powerful Cubans here, those with the brains and those with the capital. There will be mega support pouring into the island.
Sunrico brought up the UM Institute. These guys are dedicated FULL-TIME to planning and mapping Cuba's future, from every possible angle. There are some of the sharpest and brightest minds there from all over the world, not unexperienced newcomers.
There are too many people who remember the before Cuba who want to see that again.
Sorry forgot to add this.... The Cubans who are established here don't need to bring their families permanently when we can go visit any time we want or they can come spend some time here whenever they want. We also don't want to turn our lives upside down trying to bring everybody and support them, accommodate them, set them up with jobs, homes, cars, etc. And I honestly do not think those in Cuba would really want to just uproot themselves either to come to a unknown country where they would not be welcomed, nor have to fight the language ordeal. This is a problem now but now the Cubans who came here didn't do it TOTALLY voluntarily.
It would be much, much cheaper and less disruptive to just visit back and forth. Cuba IS only 90 miles away, well for Floridians, which is probably the bulk anyway.
I hope we can talk about this again in a few years. See what really does happen. It's almost like betting on the real estate situation.
Location: Lots of sun and palm trees with occasional hurricane :)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmsvmom
That's a nice post, vpcats, and very true to what I have experienced. And I am hoping to be a sunbird too someday!
It's going to be a family reunion, with squabbles. Some will come here, some there, and life will go on.
I remember 1959, and I remember 1980. It will take a huge upheaval to get people to leave cuba if they have been born and living there since 1959. Back then, you had doctors, lawyers, professionals getting on rafts and coming to miami, taking menial jobs until they got established, learned english (yes, they did) and got their credentials in order to resume their professions. I really doubt you will have that kind of migration. I think you are going to see a family reunion, extended visits, and traffic back and forth when it opens up. And I really hope to go there someday and see it for myself.
Yep. This is the story I know and grew up with. Even now you still have the doctors who have struggled and done whatever they have to do to revalidate their licenses, get into a residency and fellowship program, to start all over again. Imagine, some of these people are in their 40's, 50's competing with American born and educated 20 and 30 year olds. But they do it. It's the minority though.
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You have it backwards
