Flagstaff Winter 2021-22 (island, underwater, maps)

[Slater]

The prediction is for a La Nina winter, which usually means warmer temperatures and less snow. Regardless, it seems that we get one or two good snow events anyway. Predictions?

[thedirtman]

Originally Posted by Slater

The prediction is for a La Nina winter, which usually means warmer temperatures and less snow. Regardless, it seems that we get one or two good snow events anyway. Predictions?

Everything I've heard is drier than normal expected through until at least mid-spring. Still too early to call how April and May will turn out, but that might be most critical. Also, I don't know how strong it will be.

[kapie9969]

Expect lots of snow and for people to claim that warming is causing it.

[MortonR]

Whatever is causing it, we're getting a lot of snow. Another 4+ inches last night. My snowblower is getting a workout!

RM

[thedirtman]

Originally Posted by kapie9969

Expect lots of snow and for people to claim that warming is causing it.

There is this. There is uncertainty as always. Last years underwater volcano could be related:

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/11153...-water-warming

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by thedirtman

There is this. There is uncertainty as always. Last years underwater volcano could be related:

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/11153...-water-warming

Interesting...must have missed the announcement of this eruption in Jan 2022. So it increased the water vapor in the stratosphere by 10% (which is significant) so I wonder if that is partly the reason we are seeing a wet winter. Normally in a La Nina year, especially 3rd in a row, we are drier than normal.

[apple92680]

While the steam released by the volcano is not insignificant, it is not the cause for the above-average precipitation in the Southwest US this winter.

The cause is that normally, during La Nina (dry) years, there is a strong blocking ridge of High Pressure that sets up over the Eastern Pacific Ocean between Hawaii and California.

Up in Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, a series of Low Pressure zones will form storms and -- one by one -- make their way down to the Pacific Northwest where they continuously dump rain and snow.

This winter (2022-23) however, is different. The High Pressure dome that normally forms between Hawaii and California during La Nina is weaker this year. Additionally, the Low Pressure zones up in the Gulf of Alaska have been stronger and more numerous. At one point in early January, there were actually 6 of them all lined up between Japan and the Oregon Coast.

In a Low Pressure zone, wind is pulled towards the center and, along with it, moisture and storms. All of those Low Pressure zones clustered together were enough to keep the High from forming.

As the Low Pressure zones glided south, they pulled in big plumes of moisture from the tropical belt in the Pacific.

This year was an anomaly for La Nina. It happens. It doesn't in any way negate the overarching consensus that the planet's climate is changing, though.

[kapie9969]

Change happens all the time, all around us, naturally. Those waves of storms left a lot of snow here. I just freed my van from all the snow. I see the jet stream is different on weather maps and go right over northern AZ and drops down into NM/Texas bringing really cold air south. magnetic reversal time? ice age?

[movedintime]

From the movie 'The day after Tomorrow'

[Macinpup]

La Nina is now done according to weather news