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Could China economic recession and Japan economic recession crash the world economy? I hear the major debt problem China and Japan have is massive and the government will never be able to pay of the debt and also the massive unemployment problem in both countries.
The currency is crashing in China and Japan not to say people can’t afford to buy things. And the government of China and government of Japan have a massive debt problem.
Why are countries like China and Japan in terrible spot today. I also hear the UK economic recession is terrifying with out of control inflation and energy criss and currency is crashing.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for China in 2023 and 2024. It now expects China's economy to grow by 5.4% this year, up from its previous forecast of 5%.
USA in a recession?
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and inventory investment.
The IMF uses figures provided by China.
As far as I know, China is so deep in debt, with a housing infrastructure so overbuilt and over leveraged, and is so far into inevitable population collapse (not decline - collapse) that there is no question that they will crash.
Will it crash the world?.... I don't really think so, although it may cause some problems. The Belt and Road Initiative has virtually collapsed already and it doesn't look like that will cause problems. Manufacturers are leaving China about as fast as they moved there in the first place, but they're finding other homes, so I think that will be alright.
For me, the real unknown is who loaned China money. Because they will not be getting it back. This "balance sheet recession" is expected to be a little worse than Japan's 30 years of no growth. Worse, because China has never developed a firm middle class capable of absorbing the items made in China.
China's middle class invested nearly exclusively in Chinese real estate. They will be going broke.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for China in 2023 and 2024. It now expects China's economy to grow by 5.4% this year, up from its previous forecast of 5%.
USA in a recession?
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and inventory investment.
I find it strange when you ask mainstream economist, news media and government they get hung up on GDP as economy benchmark and disregard unemployed, homeless, debt, inflation and CPI.
What is the point of high GDP when the government of Japan and China and the people are in massive debt and the currency is way down. And very high unemployed in China.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubble99
I find it strange when you ask mainstream economist, news media and government ...
What is the point of high GDP when the government of Japan and China and the people are in massive debt and the currency is way down. And very high unemployed in China.
Get some real live friends from the countries that you mention, go visit them.
Chat with them daily. Know about their lives, their local and regional economy. National concerns.
There are many millions of people who are doing fine.
Macro economics can get turned on it's nose with changes in national policy days and world events.
Japan and China have some issues due to aging populace beyond replacement birth rate. That is a challenge to status quo (growth), but can also be of benefit if there is need for a country to become lean, productive, purposed. I can think of no other countries as well suited to take advantage of a declining population than Japan and China.
Now... If the USA could only open it's mind, history books, and policy changes.
There is a WORLD out there to learn free lessons from.
The IMF uses figures provided by China.
As far as I know, China is so deep in debt, with a housing infrastructure so overbuilt and over leveraged, and is so far into inevitable population collapse (not decline - collapse) that there is no question that they will crash.
Will it crash the world?.... I don't really think so, although it may cause some problems. The Belt and Road Initiative has virtually collapsed already and it doesn't look like that will cause problems. Manufacturers are leaving China about as fast as they moved there in the first place, but they're finding other homes, so I think that will be alright.
For me, the real unknown is who loaned China money. Because they will not be getting it back. This "balance sheet recession" is expected to be a little worse than Japan's 30 years of no growth. Worse, because China has never developed a firm middle class capable of absorbing the items made in China.
China's middle class invested nearly exclusively in Chinese real estate. They will be going broke.
The real unknown answer is who owns or creates Yuan?
The Chinese people, businesses, communities, banks and the PBC.
Not much Yuan denominated debt is held outside China.
China crumps and some US imports get more expensive.
These "we are in a recession" talking points you'd hear content providers on youtube keep saying earlier this year are merely talking points to get the sheep clicking on their videos, and not actual truth. When everyone says something at the same time they tend to almost always be wrong or the opposite is about to happen.
There is too much liquidity in the system still for a recession. In fact earlier this year when everyone was screaming "this is a recession" we had some very aggressive building going on pretty much everywhere around here. No recession in sight. Bottom line, it's very hard to know what to believe. Watching various youtube channels has made me realize that media misinformation for the purpose of making money is wired into our genetic makeup. Sensationalism sells so sensationalism gets pushed. It's not just large governments or big media publications that do it. Small youtube channels do it just for the money. They each find their niche group of followers and push their echo chambers basically telling them what they want to hear. Basically social media echo chambers.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for China in 2023 and 2024. It now expects China's economy to grow by 5.4% this year, up from its previous forecast of 5%.
USA in a recession?
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and inventory investment.
Probably not as long as it doesn’t f up supply chains. China is an exporter so it’s not like I’d the Chinese stop consuming it will wreck the EU and US economies. The demand for Chinese goods comes from the west so we will drive jobs for them.
These "we are in a recession" talking points you'd hear content providers on youtube keep saying earlier this year are merely talking points to get the sheep clicking on their videos, and not actual truth. When everyone says something at the same time they tend to almost always be wrong or the opposite is about to happen.
There is too much liquidity in the system still for a recession. In fact earlier this year when everyone was screaming "this is a recession" we had some very aggressive building going on pretty much everywhere around here. No recession in sight. Bottom line, it's very hard to know what to believe. Watching various youtube channels has made me realize that media misinformation for the purpose of making money is wired into our genetic makeup. Sensationalism sells so sensationalism gets pushed. It's not just large governments or big media publications that do it. Small youtube channels do it just for the money. They each find their niche group of followers and push their echo chambers basically telling them what they want to hear. Basically social media echo chambers.
I keep saying the GDP is a lousy way to measure economic output. What is the point of lots of economic output when the CPI is worse now than before Covid in the US and inflation is higher now than before Covid.
The homeless is absolutely nothing like the 90s you got cities like Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco with miles and miles of miles of tent cities.
The republicans and democratic only count people looking for work as unemployed not people out of the work force for longer time to inflate the numbers.
What is US government doing about energy criss?
Well sure the US currency is doing better than other countries.
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