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I agree with you generally. But where did you get your numbers?
It's easy enough to google. It's anywhere from 4 to 6.5 million depending on who's doing the talking. I tend to agree with the higher number because household formation has been very strong over the last 5-6 years, people generally tend to live longer, and one can't live in their parents basement forever.
It's easy enough to google. It's anywhere from 4 to 6.5 million depending on who's doing the talking. I tend to agree with the higher number because household formation has been very strong over the last 5-6 years, people generally tend to live longer, and one can't live in their parents basement forever.
That's the problem with Google. A search tells us that it could be 1.5 mil, 3 mil, 3.8 mil, 4 mil, 6.5 mil, more, or.....there is no shortage at all, i.e, more housing units available than people wanting housing.
Depends entirely upon who/what you believe, right?
That's the problem with Google. A search tells us that it could be 1.5 mil, 3 mil, 3.8 mil, 4 mil, 6.5 mil, more, or.....there is no shortage at all, i.e, more housing units available than people wanting housing.
Depends entirely upon who/what you believe, right?
It's definitely not lower than ~4 million. I haven't seen a halfway decent source that's pegged it at lower than 4 million. 4 million is still a retarded number and a real issue. If anyone claims there's no shortage (overall in the US), they're mentally retarded.
The truth is, we can't build for **** in this country at a productive rate anyway (mostly due to labor shortages and over regulation/ governments wanting their cut) so whether it's 4 million or 6 million doesn't really matter. Whether you take one bullet to the head or 3, the outcome is mostly the same. There might be a 1 in 1,000 shot that that 2 million delta might make a material difference in the short term outcome but don't count on it.
Define what you mean by "housing shortage." I don't doubt that there are 6 million people in this country who would like/love to own a house, but they can't afford to buy one. Many of them can't even afford to rent a decent place to live so they live with their parents. Some live in apartments because, again, they couldn't afford to buy a place to live even if there was one (or 6 million of them) for sale.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are millions of people who own two (or more) houses for their own use. Many of them are typical "snowbirds". Hell, there's probably 4 million snowbirds who have a summer home up north and a winter home here in Florida, and that's not counting all the millions of second homes that other people have in Texas, Arizona, the Carolina's, and other states.
If someone were to wave a magic wand and suddenly make another 6 million houses appear in desirable places here in the US, it would have little to no effect on the number of people who are complaining of a housing shortage because they still wouldn't be able to afford to buy one even if it existed.
The simple fact is that anyone with adequate money and a desire to own a home can buy one if they really want it. Many, however, decide that renting is perfectly fine with them until they can afford a better place. In fact, many don't even want to own a home. Renting is just fine with them. And for those who can't afford to rent, moving in with Mom and Dad or getting free government housing is their usual solution.
The problem is not a physical shortage of housing in the US. The problem is, and always has been, that some people can't afford the standard of living that having their own place entails, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Regardless how prosperous we become as a society, there will always be the ne'er-do-wells who have to depend on others for their housing and other essentials.
And that's the problem. Too many people have spent too much money on a house that they were BARELY able to afford when interest rates were around 3%. Now that interest rates have doubled and then some, these people can't afford it anymore.
In addition to the higher interest rates, Bidenflation has also greatly increased the cost of nearly everything we buy. People who were barely scraping by 2 or 3 years ago are now finding themselves "underwater" every month when it comes to paying their bills.
Consequently, many are maxing out their credit cards in an attempt to stay afloat. Once their credit cards are maxed out and they've borrowed/bummed money from their family, then the next step is to sell the house and move in with Mom and Dad or a cheap apartment somewhere.
huh ? anyone who had a fixed mortgage hasn’t seen it double and anyone buying a house now would simply buy less house .
the lower end of the market sees a larger demand as those lower end buyers step down in house and the wealthier buyers step. down a notch more in the middle …the top of the market is not effected much as those buyers can still afford it or pay cash.
so many markets are uneffected so far .
we have many of the same undesirable homes for sale that were for sale before rates went up .
And that's the problem. Too many people have spent too much money on a house that they were BARELY able to afford when interest rates were around 3%. Now that interest rates have doubled and then some, these people can't afford it anymore
I assume anyone with half a brain would have gotten a fixed rate mortgage when rates where at a generational low of 3%.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chas863
In addition to the higher interest rates, Bidenflation has also greatly increased the cost of nearly everything we buy. People who were barely scraping by 2 or 3 years ago are now finding themselves "underwater" every month when it comes to paying their bills.
There certainly has been higher than normal inflation and consumer debt has risen but your second statement doesn't seem to be reflected in consumer debt service data, we're about the same as five years ago.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chas863
Consequently, many are maxing out their credit cards in an attempt to stay afloat. Once their credit cards are maxed out and they've borrowed/bummed money from their family, then the next step is to sell the house and move in with Mom and Dad or a cheap apartment somewhere.
Again, how does a rising interest rate affect a 3% fixed rate mortgage? I'm not sure you've thought things through here.
Define what you mean by "housing shortage." I don't doubt that there are 6 million people in this country who would like/love to own a house, but they can't afford to buy one. Many of them can't even afford to rent a decent place to live so they live with their parents. Some live in apartments because, again, they couldn't afford to buy a place to live even if there was one (or 6 million of them) for sale.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are millions of people who own two (or more) houses for their own use. Many of them are typical "snowbirds". Hell, there's probably 4 million snowbirds who have a summer home up north and a winter home here in Florida, and that's not counting all the millions of second homes that other people have in Texas, Arizona, the Carolina's, and other states.
If someone were to wave a magic wand and suddenly make another 6 million houses appear in desirable places here in the US, it would have little to no effect on the number of people who are complaining of a housing shortage because they still wouldn't be able to afford to buy one even if it existed.
The simple fact is that anyone with adequate money and a desire to own a home can buy one if they really want it. Many, however, decide that renting is perfectly fine with them until they can afford a better place. In fact, many don't even want to own a home. Renting is just fine with them. And for those who can't afford to rent, moving in with Mom and Dad or getting free government housing is their usual solution.
The problem is not a physical shortage of housing in the US. The problem is, and always has been, that some people can't afford the standard of living that having their own place entails, and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Regardless how prosperous we become as a society, there will always be the ne'er-do-wells who have to depend on others for their housing and other essentials.
We can debate to what extent the housing shortage has an effect on prices but there’s no debating that it does have an effect. That’s the essence of capitalism. A good/service with more demand than supply has pricing power. Whether that pricing power means homes are 20% more expensive or 50% more expensive is debatable.
The fact that individuals are still buying homes doesn’t mean there’s no shortage. I have a condo in Brooklyn and a house on LI. Most people would think I’m an idiot for paying what I did. Did I want to pay the prices I did? Of course not. I did it because I had no choice if I wanted to buy something similar to what I did.
Look at the car market post COVID as an analogue.
What we’ve had to deal with in NYC for the past 30+ years is now playing itself out for most of the country.
huh ? anyone who had a fixed mortgage hasn’t seen it double and anyone buying a house now would simply buy less house .
the lower end of the market sees a larger demand as those lower end buyers step down in house and the wealthier buyers step. down a notch more in the middle …the top of the market is not effected much as those buyers can still afford it or pay cash.
so many markets are uneffected so far .
we have many of the same undesirable homes for sale that were for sale before rates went up .
prime stuff on all levels sells very fast here
The undesirable homes that are still for sale means that someone was holding out because they dont want to sell at the correct discount. Those “undesirable” homes are priced above market when factoring in revonation costs/ headaches. Many just aren’t in a rush or hold out for an idiot or a unicorn buyer that doesn’t have much time.
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
10,347 posts, read 8,563,021 times
Reputation: 16684
Quote:
Originally Posted by rkcarguy
So did my parents and grandparents, but that was on homes that cost $22,000-$28,000, not $600,000.
Even 2008 was different because it followed good times, instead of following a pandemic that has already drained government coffers.
My three homes were 165k, not 28 k. Not everyone has to buy a 600k home. You can get a home here for 300 to 450k.
I already posted those homes last year as a comparison to a millennial who complained how older people had it easy. I looked up the value of the homes to what they went up to and what the payments would be then and they were less than what I was paying back then. That did not factor in inflation which made it look even better. I think I was using 5 or 6% interest rates when I did the comparison.
Location: Formerly Pleasanton Ca, now in Marietta Ga
10,347 posts, read 8,563,021 times
Reputation: 16684
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chas863
And that's the problem. Too many people have spent too much money on a house that they were BARELY able to afford when interest rates were around 3%. Now that interest rates have doubled and then some, these people can't afford it anymore.
In addition to the higher interest rates, Bidenflation has also greatly increased the cost of nearly everything we buy. People who were barely scraping by 2 or 3 years ago are now finding themselves "underwater" every month when it comes to paying their bills.
Consequently, many are maxing out their credit cards in an attempt to stay afloat. Once their credit cards are maxed out and they've borrowed/bummed money from their family, then the next step is to sell the house and move in with Mom and Dad or a cheap apartment somewhere.
Wait , if they got a rate at 3% and bought a house , why does it matter if rates went up so they can’t afford it anymore. Aren’t they locked in at the lower rate and unaffected?
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