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The TL;DR - the market is digesting inventory, which has plummeted from 2022 highs. Oddly, it's still technically a seller's market with just around 2 months of inventory.
Interesting commentary on causes of extremely low inventory, including existing homeowners with 30-year mortgages fixed at ~3% having a strong disincentive to trade-up.
The inventory breakdown by individual city is insightful. Since existing homeowners have little incentive to list or lower prices, the story becomes one of new construction. Boise proper has relatively little new construction (nearly 70% existing homes), whereas Meridian and Eagle have more, and further out markets like Kuna, Star, and Middleton are dominated by new construction.
Where does the market go from here? I expect more price declines in the near term for Kuna, Star, Middleton and other places that have built a lot of new housing. My guess is Boise proper stabilizes in the near term followed by modest price increases in the medium term.
The TL;DR - the market is digesting inventory, which has plummeted from 2022 highs. Oddly, it's still technically a seller's market with just around 2 months of inventory.
Interesting commentary on causes of extremely low inventory, including existing homeowners with 30-year mortgages fixed at ~3% having a strong disincentive to trade-up.
The inventory breakdown by individual city is insightful. Since existing homeowners have little incentive to list or lower prices, the story becomes one of new construction. Boise proper has relatively little new construction (nearly 70% existing homes), whereas Meridian and Eagle have more, and further out markets like Kuna, Star, and Middleton are dominated by new construction.
Where does the market go from here? I expect more price declines in the near term for Kuna, Star, Middleton and other places that have built a lot of new housing. My guess is Boise proper stabilizes in the near term followed by modest price increases in the medium term.
Yup.
What happened suddenly was Idaho housing just caught up to the rest of the nation in its housing costs.
I'm native, and for almost all of my life here, housing and wages were both much lower than they were nationally, but were stable. Workers didn't earn the same wages as in other states, but new homes were cheaper to build when wages were low and the materials were cheaper.
In times of economic plenty, Idaho always lost population to other states. But recession was always a lot slower to arrive here when one came; recessions have always come late and lingered on far longer here than in other states.
Things fell so out of balance very quickly in this young century. I think the entire nation is out of balance. Idaho is an extreme state in all things, and will always be extreme. It's nature's work in a state that is mostly uninhabitable.
(That's why I see my state as an old mother to me. Beautiful, fickle, harsh, bountiful and as unpredictable as a willful old woman can become.)
But the one thing my long life here has shown me is how resilient Idahoans are. This is always a state that is extreme in all things good and bad. Those who choose to live their lives out here have always adapted, and will always have to adapt if they remain.
So in time, the housing shortage will be overcome.
Probably much sooner than newcomers can comprehend, as it takes usually takes quite a long time for any newbie here to become mentally adjusted to life here and become content with the adjustment.
We mostly talk about the folks that are moving into Idaho on this forum, but very little about the folks who move in and leave after a few years. There have been many times when Idaho's population has suddenly dipped as big numbers of residents gave it up here and moved away.
And then don't come back, even though they'll think about returning for the rest of their lives.
I predict the real estate pundits will start harping about the gloom and doom based on upcoming foreclosure rates. I anticipate many of them will just compare year over year numbers and neglect to state the impact of the foreclosure moratoriums that just pushed foreclosures back till this year. Many states also had moratoriums on evictions due to Covid.
When these articles start showing up, please take the time to look at 10-20 averages and don't just believe the headlines used!
Inventory remains tight in inner ring neighborhoods, with slim pickings in the North End, Warm Springs, Depot Bench, and West End neighborhoods. Appropriately priced homes in these areas continue to sell quickly, though there are a few overpriced and/or problem properties that sit on the market for longer. If I were looking to buy in these areas, I'd consider making some lower offers on these properties just to try my luck.
I previously mentioned the Collister area as an interesting buying opportunity (around Castle Hills Park)... well, looks like that ship has sailed for now with few properties on offer.
There are still some good deals in West Boise.
A couple of anecdotal stories worth sharing:
A good friend works for a builder in the area, and he mentioned that the company is in solid financial shape and they're still building and selling homes. Mortgage rates have come down a little, and supply chain issues are easing and cost of raw materials have cooled, which means they can still make a decent profit on each unit. These are in developments that were already underway before the slowdown, and they are holding off on breaking new ground. If this is any indication of builders in general, then I suspect new construction will slow considerably this year and we may be back to shortages by spring 2024.
I know of two younger couples in their 20s that have gotten back into the market for starter homes. In both cases they were able to get into new construction for mid $300k. This was in the outskirts of Meridian, so a little further out, but should be great for them in the long term to build equity.
There is no way to stop growth, and with growth comes change, guaranteed. You can embrace it, live with it, or move somewhere that suits you better. People do it all the time.
You're perfectly correct when you said, "people do it all the time." Even the Native Americans did it. They couldn't stop growth and they dealt with it by moving further and further away from their homes. Sure, they ran out of places to go and were pushed onto dinky reservations, but darn it, growth is really important. Especially to people who profit from taking land from other people.
Yes, this is appropriate description of the present situation in Idaho. About 10 years ago Californians bought up and profited off real estate in Portland and Seattle. Now those cities are expensive trash heaps overrun with sky high rent and home prices. The locals there are now overrun with homeless people, crime and traffic. Then the rest of Oregon and Washington fell to the same fate. Spokane has a full-on housing crisis and also east of Spokane are facing similar housing crises. The New York Times just wrote about this, in the article, "The Californians are Coming. So is their Housing Crisis."
Idaho is now overflowing with Californians who came for the real estate. We also have new guests from Oregon and Washington who have to flee their own homes to avoid the overpriced cesspools their states have become.
The problem keeps expanding further and further out with no end in sight. Now, I'm hearing people in Montana complain about "being full of Californians." Bozeman is now being called "Boz Angeles" by all the LA people who have colonized it. Arizona is also being hit hard, and displaced Arizonans are moving here to Idaho to escape.
I have been looking at moving to the east- very far to get away from it, but Californians have beaten me to the punch. Tennessee and Texas are falling to the same fate of insanely high home prices because Californians are invading those states to take advantage of the low home prices there.
IMHO, we will run out out of affordable places to live entirely in the upcoming years because Californians drive housing prices through the roof everywhere they go. I could move overseas, but Californians have already hit Portugal and Mexico City and are pricing out locals there, too.
Remote work is making all of this possible. I hope they work out a plan to colonize Mars soon, because that's probably how far away I will have to go to find an affordable town in the next decade or so. Maybe Mars will follow suit and also just become another LA/San Francisco suburb 50 years from now. Wait, I just thought of something. I would think getting a good wifi signal on Mars might be iffy, so remote workers couldn't manage there. That changes my decision, I think I'll plan to move to Mars if they can colonize it in my lifetime.
Last edited by Ann Hearst; 02-03-2023 at 01:29 PM..
You're perfectly correct when you said, "people do it all the time." Even the Native Americans did it. They couldn't stop growth and they dealt with it by moving further and further away from their homes. Sure, they ran out of places to go and were pushed onto dinky reservations, but darn it, growth is really important. Especially to people who profit from taking land from other people.
Yes, this is appropriate description of the present situation in Idaho. About 10 years ago Californians bought up and profited off real estate in Portland and Seattle. Now those cities are expensive trash heaps overrun with sky high rent and home prices. The locals there are now overrun with homeless people, crime and traffic. Then the rest of Oregon and Washington fell to the same fate. Spokane has a full-on housing crisis and also east of Spokane are facing similar housing crises. The New York Times just wrote about this, in the article, "The Californians are Coming. So is their Housing Crisis."
Idaho is now overflowing with Californians who came for the real estate. We also have new guests from Oregon and Washington who have to flee their own homes to avoid the overpriced cesspools their states have become.
The problem keeps expanding further and further out with no end in sight. Now, I'm hearing people in Montana complain about "being full of Californians." Bozeman is now being called "Boz Angeles" by all the LA people who have colonized it. Arizona is also being hit hard, and displaced Arizonans are moving here to Idaho to escape.
I have been looking at moving to the east- very far to get away from it, but Californians have beaten me to the punch. Tennessee and Texas are falling to the same fate of insanely high home prices because Californians are invading those states to take advantage of the low home prices there.
IMHO, we will run out out of affordable places to live entirely in the upcoming years because Californians drive housing prices through the roof everywhere they go. I could move overseas, but Californians have already hit Portugal and Mexico City and are pricing out locals there, too.
Remote work is making all of this possible. I hope they work out a plan to colonize Mars soon, because that's probably how far away I will have to go to find an affordable town in the next decade or so. Maybe Mars will follow suit and also just become another LA/San Francisco suburb 50 years from now. Wait, I just thought of something. I would think getting a good wifi signal on Mars might be iffy, so remote workers couldn't manage there. That changes my decision, I think I'll plan to move to Mars if they can colonize it in my lifetime.
We are all Americans, just stop with the divisive comments. Idaho is a melting pot, folks from all over live here. I am from New Jersey. Sure, many are from California, but those folks lived in other states too.
Idaho is now overflowing with Californians who came for the real estate. We also have new guests from Oregon and Washington who have to flee their own homes to avoid the overpriced cesspools their states have become.
Idaho isn't overflowing with Californians, there are people here who have migrated from all over the country (world). I moved here from Las Vegas, my immediate neighbors are from India, Canada, North Carolina, Wisconsin. There's significant data available showing the top locations Californians are moving is Texas, Arizona, Florida, Oregon & Washington.
Idaho isn't overflowing with Californians, there are people here who have migrated from all over the country (world). I moved here from Las Vegas, my immediate neighbors are from India, Canada, North Carolina, Wisconsin. There's significant data available showing the top locations Californians are moving is Texas, Arizona, Florida, Oregon & Washington.
Thanks for the information and clarification. I am surprised that more Californians have moved to Wyoming. It used to be that most people who did move to Wyoming didn't last there for the first winter. Now it appears as I have heard that the population in Wyoming is going up and not down as before as one of the few states where the population is going down.
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