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Yoenis Cespedes will be wearing a Mets uniform once again.
The Cuban outfielder is returning to Citi Field next season, on a four-year, $110 million deal, the Daily News confirmed.
Cespedes also has a no-trade clause in the contract.
The News had previously reported that the Mets were only willing to give Cespedes a four-year deal in the $100-$110 million range.
The team was gambling that it could leverage the slugger's desire to return to New York, when multiple teams may have been willing to offer a longer deal and more money. The Giants and Dodgers were believed to be among those clamoring for his right-handed bat.
The 31-year-old reached out to the Mets in October saying he'd be interested in coming back after spending a season and a half with the team, but he also wanted to make sure the Mets wanted him, too.
Last offseason, the team got Cespedes - who sparked the Met offense during a 2015 World Series run - on a three-year, $75 million deal, which allowed him to opt out after the first year.
Cespedes hit .280 with 86 RBI and 31 home runs in 2016, despite playing most of the season with a quad injury.
It was smart of the Mets not to extend the deal past four years. They will be getting Cespedes's ages 31-34, past his prime, but not yet in the oft injured twilight years.
Still, to be worth 27.5 million a year, Cespedes would need to compile about 6.8 WAR in each of the four seasons. (Figuring on five million per WAR point) He produced 2.9 WAR in 2016, so it seems very unlikely that he will meet the standard.
He should be helpful, but they are vastly overpaying for it.
Most of what I read has the number closer to $8 million.
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You are right, it has risen. At eight million per WAR point Cespedes would need to compile 3.4 WAR per season for the next four years. He is unlikely to reach this reduced goal because he is past his prime and in his prime, at age 29, he had 6.3 WAR, while last season at age 30 it dropped to 2.9 WAR. Part of that loss was due to a decline in his defensive value, 0.7 WAR in 2015, -0.6 WAR in 2016. (Cespedes hit as well in 2016 as he did in 2015, but that took place in a higher run scoring environment, and thus was worth less than it was in 2015.)
That is what happens to players as they age, they lose speed and slower outfielders get to fewer balls. This is not a trend likely to reverse itself.
A large part of that is defense. And, of course, you're right that defense declines with age.
But, there's something else going on.
In 2015 Cespedes played 1000 innings in LF where he was a +20 defender (by UZR) and 300 innings in CF where he was -3. He totaled about 15 runs for defense.
In 2016 Cespedes only played 550 innings in LF where he was +4 and 500 innings in CF where he was -11. He totaled about -7 runs.
He's been a plus defensive LFer and poor in CF - even when considering the defensive positional adjustments. Maybe he's just more suited to LF for whatever reason.
If the Mets play him in LF instead of CF he could be more valuable to the team.
There are also sampling issues to consider. His 2015 true defensive talent might not suggest that he's a true talent 7 WAR player, but his 2016 might make him a 4 WAR player.
If he's closer to a 4 WAR player in 2017 than a 3 WAR player, then the contract looks a lot better.
Cespedes becomes a plus as a left fielder if the Mets have someone who plays a better centerfield and hits well enough that the overall LF/CF combo compiles more WAR than if it was Cespedes in center and better bat in left.
As an A's fan I got to see plenty of Cespedes when he was with Oakland. Just before he was traded midway through 2014, Cespedes made all the highlight reels twice in three days with sensational throws, one nailing a runner at third, the other at the plate. However, in both cases, the only reason those plays were made was because Cespedes had botched fielding the ball cleanly. His having to chase after the bobbled balls was what embolded the runners to try and take the extra bases.
That to me was Cespedes in a nutshell, screwups and spectacular plays..all at once in these two cases.
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