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That won't happen for over a hundred years' time. Not even get 100 million. Unlikely 50 million. It more likely be like: 38,089,401. Worldwide population growth rate is declining in most places. China population is expected to drop by half then, USA population will be unlikely to reach 400 million people then either.https://www.populationpyramid.net/po...-country/2100/
Only places with big growth are Africa and the Indian subcontinent then.
Immigration is always the X factor. 25 years ago the ABS were predicting Australia's population "could grow to between 23.5 and 26.4 million by the year 2051"
Fellas... we have the land mass, but simply dont have the climate and fertile productive soils to support a population a la the USA.
So the oldest continent is also the driest, combine that with poor soils, the cycle of droughts and flooding rains, the country is flat out supporting a doubling of the present population.
Ecologically, socially, politically ( ie Indigenous issues, land rights, cultural sensitivities ) one cannot build new dams in AU; Of course we can build de-salination plants in the bigger cities for water supply, but cannot build new dams for either domestic water supply or agricultural irrigation.
No way in the 21st century would a Snowy Mountains Scheme or Ord River Scheme get past the enviro and cultural regulations.... hell, cant even put in new sewerage outfalls from the big cities offshore.
The AU population is one of the most highly urbanised in the Western World.... the vast majority of the population hugs the climatically equiable East Coast... its tough to eke out a living out in the vast Outback regions.
AU is blessed with natural resources... we are the mines supplying the manufacturing powerhouses of Asia. We no longer manufacture consumer products ourselves....
As has been mentioned previously, we have not only a skilled labour shortage, but also a shortage of people willing to do the harder menial tasks... immigration on paper seems like the saviour in this case.... but also the country is in a housing crisis atm... supply that is, both the rental and private ownership market.
Where are all the migrants going to be housed ? In an allready overheated market ?
And the new arrivals to AU gravitate to the big cities of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, putting more stresses upon the water and power resouces, the available housing markets. I just cant see the pop of AU much past 50 million in the future.
PS/- lived in Darwin 43 years... its as Aussie as you can find....
Fellas... we have the land mass, but simply dont have the climate and fertile productive soils to support a population a la the USA.
So the oldest continent is also the driest, combine that with poor soils, the cycle of droughts and flooding rains, the country is flat out supporting a doubling of the present population.
Ecologically, socially, politically ( ie Indigenous issues, land rights, cultural sensitivities ) one cannot build new dams in AU; Of course we can build de-salination plants in the bigger cities for water supply, but cannot build new dams for either domestic water supply or agricultural irrigation.
No way in the 21st century would a Snowy Mountains Scheme or Ord River Scheme get past the enviro and cultural regulations.... hell, cant even put in new sewerage outfalls from the big cities offshore.
The AU population is one of the most highly urbanised in the Western World.... the vast majority of the population hugs the climatically equiable East Coast... its tough to eke out a living out in the vast Outback regions.
AU is blessed with natural resources... we are the mines supplying the manufacturing powerhouses of Asia. We no longer manufacture consumer products ourselves....
As has been mentioned previously, we have not only a skilled labour shortage, but also a shortage of people willing to do the harder menial tasks... immigration on paper seems like the saviour in this case.... but also the country is in a housing crisis atm... supply that is, both the rental and private ownership market.
Where are all the migrants going to be housed ? In an allready overheated market ?
And the new arrivals to AU gravitate to the big cities of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne, putting more stresses upon the water and power resouces, the available housing markets. I just cant see the pop of AU much past 50 million in the future.
PS/- lived in Darwin 43 years... its as Aussie as you can find....
Australia is actually a large exporter of agricultural commodities and products, so is already feeding a population well in excess of its own.
People tend to forget how wet, lush and uninhabited the tropical north is. Darwin gets over 1,800mm of precipitation a year, while European cities like Berlin average around 500mm. Even inland NT towns like Catherine get around 1,100mm per year. The Old River in WA is probably the only place in the north where that agricultural potential has been taken advantage of on a moderate scale, primarily due to the lack of population to support transport and the services you need to keep those industries going.
Towns like Alice Springs in Central Australia are actually pretty liveable, and folk who do live there typically like it. It's just that people from places like Sydney and Melbourne just aren't used to constant subzero winter mornings, summer days in the mid 40Cs, and the lack of humidity. But that's all psychological; seriously, you get used to it pretty quickly. They are dependent on aquifers for water supply, but so are large parts of the US south west.
Property markets are all about supply and demand. Perhaps there just needs to be more sustained and considered focus on the former.
On the flip side though, I'm glad there are huge tracts of pristine wilderness in most parts of Australia.
Australia is actually a large exporter of agricultural commodities and products, so is already feeding a population well in excess of its own.
People tend to forget how wet, lush and uninhabited the tropical north is. Darwin gets over 1,800mm of precipitation a year, while European cities like Berlin average around 500mm. Even inland NT towns like Catherine get around 1,100mm per year. The Old River in WA is probably the only place in the north where that agricultural potential has been taken advantage of on a moderate scale, primarily due to the lack of population to support transport and the services you need to keep those industries going.
Towns like Alice Springs in Central Australia are actually pretty liveable, and folk who do live there typically like it. It's just that people from places like Sydney and Melbourne just aren't used to constant subzero winter mornings, summer days in the mid 40Cs, and the lack of humidity. But that's all psychological; seriously, you get used to it pretty quickly. They are dependent on aquifers for water supply, but so are large parts of the US south west.
Property markets are all about supply and demand. Perhaps there just needs to be more sustained and considered focus on the former.
On the flip side though, I'm glad there are huge tracts of pristine wilderness in most parts of Australia.
As I mentioned previously.... land is mostly locked up away from the fertile coasts.... trust me when I say the deep tropical north with its 1800mm of rain is no way able to support a population in the millions... its flat out providing for the quarter of a million pop we have atm.... the rain all falls in a very short window of around 5 months.... the rest of the year if mostly rainless.... as I mentioned earlier, we cannot politically, environmentally or culturally build dams in the NT....
Alice Springs is a desert region ( about 12" per annum of very variabe rainfall ie some years only 3 or 4", other years 30" inches.) with no permanent water resources, and litterally no productive agricultural land other than 1000 square kilometer cattle properties.... it barely supports the 30k pop in the region...
Consider this... the NT area of land is 1.42m klm squared.... pop about 250k
Texas area is 695,662 km² so about half the NT, and a pop of 30 million....
Why do you think this is the case ?
Consider this... the NT area of land is 1.42m klm squared.... pop about 250k
Texas area is 695,662 km² so about half the NT, and a pop of 30 million....
Why do you think this is the case?
It's essentially the same reason why Tasmania has about 10% of the population of Ireland (the Republic of Ireland) while being pretty much the same size and with a similar climate.
The monsoonal rainfall patterns across the tropical north are pretty much the same as in all regions in the Asian-Australian monsoon belt.
Seriously, the major cities in the Gulf States (Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE) were once pretty much nothing but sand; far more desolate than anywhere in the Northern Territory. Today they are large, vibrant economically significant cities.
Last edited by Bakery Hill; 05-17-2023 at 06:32 AM..
It's essentially the same reason why Tasmania has about 10% of the population of Ireland (the Republic of Ireland) while being pretty much the same size and with a similar climate.
The monsoonal rainfall patterns across the tropical north are pretty much the same as in all regions in the Asian-Australian monsoon belt.
Seriously, the major cities in the Gulf States (Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE) were once pretty much nothing but sand; far more desolate than anywhere in the Northern Territory. Today they are large, vibrant economically significant cities.
These Gulf desert states are wealthy for other reasons.
But then again so is WA, with the mining resources in the inhospitable Pilbara region.
Overall I agree with you, Australia, especially Northern Australia, can support a much bigger population.
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