Austin housing bubble (real estate, hotel, houses)

[ipott]

Wonder what folks think about this - https://www.kvue.com/article/money/e...e-a0398f54bc23

[cheeva]

What do I think? I think it's an article that says the housing market will burst 3 years from now, in the year 2025.

[blameyourself]

2nd verse same as the first.

I think it's an opinion piece. I also think it's funny the author mentions info from Core Logic since they seem to disagree with his viewpoint.

https://fortune.com/2022/04/27/how-l...ket-corelogic/

[cheeva]

TLDR version: Austin RE costs too much, but people will continue to pay too much for Austin RE over the next 3 years.

[atxcio]

Who cares what I think, convince TCAD please.

[Need4Camaro]

I made topic regarding the national RE market in the General US forums where the news article I posted states the RE market is cooling off in several states, asking if they were seeing this in reality, needless to say...most CD users don't seem to be noticing this trend.

[ScoPro]

Originally Posted by cheeva

TLDR version: Austin RE costs too much, but people will continue to pay too much for Austin RE over the next 3 years.

What’s interesting is the fact that the Driskill Hotel downtown sold for $300 million, but TCAD has its appraisal value set at $31 million.
I’d love to have my house taxed at 1/10 of market value.

[CarnivalGal]

I think it will level off, but I don't think it's going to completely burst. It's already started to level off, specially as interest rates rise.

This isn't the housing bubble of 2007-08. That was caused by banks lending more money to people than they should have and then those people not being able to make payments. The current surge in pricing is being caused by an actual housing shortage. After 2007, less houses were built, because prices and demand were so low. Well, now that demand has soared, builders can't keep up. There was alreaedy a shortage from years of relatively low building. And now you throw in supply chain and worker shortages on top of increased demand for houses, thanks to low interest rates an people who are now working from home looking to relocate, etc., and you have a perfect storm for increased prices.

Demand is alreaedy decreasing, due to rising interest rates and people just giving up and leaving the housing market. But suplly hasn't increased, so prices are still high. You're not getting 20 cash offers over asking in the first day anymore, but houses are still selling for record prices and in a short amount of time.

[CarnivalGal]

Originally Posted by Need4Camaro

I made topic regarding the national RE market in the General US forums where the news article I posted states the RE market is cooling off in several states, asking if they were seeing this in reality, needless to say...most CD users don't seem to be noticing this trend.

I am. Both of the houses on either side of me just sold. One was a pocket listing (owner was a Realtor). But the other sold in 2 days for more than list price.

This guy is a Realtor and resident of Steiner Ranch, where I live. He does these videos every month. It gives a good picture of the market here.

BTW, Craig is also just a really nice, good guy, I know we're not supposed to make recommendations here, but just sayin'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcRi71kBpto

[austinnerd]

Originally Posted by ScoPro

What’s interesting is the fact that the Driskill Hotel downtown sold for $300 million, but TCAD has its appraisal value set at $31 million.
I’d love to have my house taxed at 1/10 of market value.

It sold for $125mil and it is a revenue generating business, so of course it would sell for significantly more than the value of the real estate alone.