2018 ARC Growth Trends (Regional growth levels off, City of Atlanta sees largest growth) (rental car)

[jsvh]

https://33n.atlantaregional.com/regi...2018population

Highlights from this snapshot:

• The 10-county Atlanta region is now home to 4,555,900 in 2018, up from 4,480,100 in 2017. From April 1, 2017 to April 1, 2018 the region added 75,800 new residents. This represents the second largest single-year increase since 2007-2008, trailing only last year’s 2016-2017 increase of 78,300.
• The slower growth, while still strong, reflects a slight slowdown in the number of units authorized by building permits and slower overall job growth in the past year.
• From 2017 to 2018, Fulton added 17,570 new residents, the largest single-year growth in the region. Next were Gwinnett with 16,700 new residents, DeKalb with 10,630 new residents, and Cobb with 8,000 new residents.
• The City of Atlanta, too, is experiencing continued impressive growth. Again fueled by strong, but slightly slowing levels of multi-family development, the city added 10,100 new residents between 2017 and 2018, the largest single-year estimated population increase since the Great Recession.
• In 2017, there were almost 24,500 new residential building permits in the 10-county region, which while 2,500 down from 2016-2017, was still over 10% higher than the number permitted in 2015. Still, current building permit activity for the 10-county region is quite a bit lower than pre-recession permit levels.

[Forhall]

By the ARC estimates the city won't hit 500k by the census...am I reading that right?

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by Forhall

By the ARC estimates the city won't hit 500k by the census...am I reading that right?

Yep. If CoA keeps growing at 2.2% the next couple years it will be at 480K in 2020.

Of course the ARC numbers are not as accurate as a census so we will see in 2020 how accurate the ARC projections since 2010 have really been.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by Forhall

By the ARC estimates the city won't hit 500k by the census...am I reading that right?

Yes, Atlanta had a ways to go.

Now the US Census Estimates had Atlanta city at 486k in 2017. At a 10k pace, those estimates will break 500k just in time for the Census.

What is probably impacting estimates the most, like the ARC was drawing attention to, is many of the apartment/condos are 1-person residences. The number of units is well known by both, but they are using different methods to estimate how many people are in them.

And the Census in 2010 majorly over-estimated the Census actual outcome for Atlanta.

I think Atlanta has a decent shot at it, but it will be close.

[jsvh]

Also, both those ARC and census growth trends put the city at around a million in 2050.

[jsvh]

City of Atlanta sees largest single-year population growth since Great Recession

Given that CoA was losing population since the 70s until recent years, wouldn't that mean the largest population growth since at least then?

[arjay57]

So 82% of the growth in the city of Atlanta is multi-family?

Are we good with transforming the city into a renter-based zone?

As one of the gentleman pointed out in the South DeKalb video I posted the other day, nobody washes a rented car.

[jsvh]

Originally Posted by arjay57

So 82% of the growth in the city of Atlanta is multi-family?

Are we good with transforming the city into a renter-based zone?

As one of the gentleman pointed out in the South DeKalb video I posted the other day, nobody washes a rented car.

Of course the company that owns that rental car (or home) likely has it washed, cleaned, and maintained far more often than the average car owner does. Usually every time it comes into the garage. Rental cars are often look better than the ones owners are driving out there.

Also, multi-family can be owned or rented depending on what the market wants.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by arjay57

So 82% of the growth in the city of Atlanta is multi-family?

Are we good with transforming the city into a renter-based zone?

As one of the gentleman pointed out in the South DeKalb video I posted the other day, nobody washes a rented car.

To use this analogy...

There is still a difference between a rented car, a leased car, and a bought car. People do wash their leased cars.

The ultimate problem is if you want more single family households, Atlanta would have to do more to allow the residential neighborhoods change and include more of such units on the lots that exist now (ie. the lots would have to change somehow) and they unwilling to do so, but it would do more to bring more families that own a home back into the city.

[jsvh]

Also, it is too bad we are not including (and legalizing more) missing middle housing. It is a different thing from the large multi-family projects.

Things like a duplex / ADU can offer the best of both worlds. One family often owns the whole thing and rents out the other half to another family or has relatives live in the other half. It offers more density and affordability that blends in seamlessly in our leafy neighborhoods.