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I think the crucial element in calculating adequate hospital capacity, is how many beds can the ICU accommodate, and how many ventilators are available. It's been almost a week, IIRC, since the Governor asked the federal government to set up an army field hospital in Albuquerque, to handle the surge in patients she anticipated. (She's thinking ahead, which seems to be rare in this crisis.) So available beds must be inadequate.
Santa Fe has two hospitals now; Lovelace completed construction and hiring for the new one just in time for the pandemic, it seems. Still, I don't have info about ICU capacity for the city, and equipment availability. I'm hoping SF won't see the runaway numbers some other locations have seen.
It's Presbyterian that just opened a new hospital in Santa Fe, not Lovelace. The governor is relying on the same kinds of numbers and facts from wildly different studies as the media is reporting. It's doubtful even the state government has an accurate and firm accounting of the number of hospital beds in the state.
I'm a numbers and stats person and I wish we had accurate and trustworthy numbers across multitudes of areas. But we just don't. Most people just are not that thorough in confirming and checking these stats that they produce or compare. I see it all the time. Wildly different numbers are reported for most everything. They are pretty much useless.
It's Presbyterian that just opened a new hospital in Santa Fe, not Lovelace. The governor is relying on the same kinds of numbers and facts from wildly different studies as the media is reporting. It's doubtful even the state government has an accurate and firm accounting of the number of hospital beds in the state.
I'm a numbers and stats person and I wish we had accurate and trustworthy numbers across multitudes of areas. But we just don't. Most people just are not that thorough in confirming and checking these stats that they produce or compare. I see it all the time. Wildly different numbers are reported for most everything. They are pretty much useless.
If 1000 New Mexicans die from the virus, that's only 0.05% of the population. Of course, if we or one of our loved ones die, numbers and stats mean nothing. My point is: we don't even have 1000 infected with the virus (which I admit I find hard to believe). So far, so good.
Plus 82+ of us, who get the virus, recover at home. However, also remember that the virus can turn very serious very quickly. So if you get a mild case, be sure to monitor yourself well -- but I know I don't have to tell you that. Sorry.
I think I have it. So far I'm doing ok. I am certainly not getting better every day, that's for sure. But I'm scared to death to go to one of our hospitals who, at best, don't exactly practice the best medical care in normal times.
I have a retired nurse neighbor who has the virus. She went to The ER, wasn't tested and got sent home -- after waiting FOR HOURS with a lot of sick people (virus or not). Enough said.
I have a retired nurse neighbor who has the virus. She went to The ER, wasn't tested and got sent home -- after waiting FOR HOURS with a lot of sick people (virus or not). Enough said.
And apparently we're directed to call the Coronavirus hotline in New Mexico FIRST before going to the hospital or doctor. And/or call our doctor FIRST. They'll ask you pertinent questions to discover what's going on with you and what you should do from there.
I think our Governor is on the right track but we may need even more downtime. I was looking at some published model data (you can Google it) and it looks like our peak or apex will come April 24-May 2, depending on the model. That's when hospital admissions start to slack off (not gets over) and it appears that it gets considerably worse than anything we have seen yet. The more we stay isolated the more we might be able to slide that peak closer and lower. It is a moving target and right now it looks like that peak date is moving closer but higher on some models. There are so many unknown things that impact these models (length of stay in the hospital, treatment advances, transmission rate, and isolation rate, for example) that they are simply a hint with huge error factors. Given that, they all point to a peak in late April-early May, a gradual decrease in cases but a significantly higher total death toll.
I calculated the latest case stats for a national thread in City vs City on this site and so I figured I'd post them here as well:
The Albuquerque metro is now at 48.9 cases per 100,000 people, with 449 cases overall. There have been 10 deaths in the Albuquerque metro so far. The state of New Mexico is at 37.7 cases per 100,000 people, with 794 cases overall. There have been 13 deaths overall in the state so far. 51 people are hospitalized in the state with the virus.
These are using the numbers that the state released just now.
I saw many more people wearing masks on my weekly shopping trip in Albuquerque yesterday compared to the same time last week. Maybe 20% of shoppers were donning masks or other face coverings last week, while yesterday it seemed closer to 80%. Shows that people are paying attention to state and/or national recommendations. But most employees were not wearing face coverings.
I have a retired nurse neighbor who has the virus. She went to The ER, wasn't tested and got sent home -- after waiting FOR HOURS with a lot of sick people (virus or not). Enough said.
And apparently we're directed to call the Coronavirus hotline in New Mexico FIRST before going to the hospital or doctor. And/or call our doctor FIRST. They'll ask you pertinent questions to discover what's going on with you and what you should do from there.
My PCP's office has a notice on their website, and sent similar to their patients, saying: if you think you have it, call the hotline, don't call us! We aren't seeing Covid patients! Their office is in fact closed, and they've only been doing appointments by phone.
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