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Old 04-27-2017, 07:38 PM
 
68 posts, read 201,244 times
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Thanks, wish itwerebetter, (great name), for providing your perspective. I have met a lot of people that love Rarity Bay, and they also say the same thing about their fellow residents. Maybe one day I will be able to say the same thing. It's a beautiful community, but I'm very concerned with the direction that the Club owners have taken. I still don't understand the reason for some residents alleging the $5000 initiation fee is a, "transfer," fee. In effect, it's the same process as before, when an owner who was selling would recoup their social membership deposit from the new owners. Unfortunately, the Club is taking the money and no longer returning deposits. That one is going to bite them and the community, someday, along with some other issues. I believe in the residents, however, especially you "pioneers," but will there be others as determined as your group that will step up to meet the challenges, I wonder. For me, losing the Board to the Declarant is one step towards Rarity Bay losing its identity. The new owners brought money, but Rarity Bay has been supplying the talent since its inception. In hindsight, I wish the residents would have purchased the assets and Declarant's rights.
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Old 04-28-2017, 01:02 PM
 
Location: East TN
11,103 posts, read 9,746,390 times
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Wish itwerebetter,
I am not sure when you say that unlimited golf is only "$260/month and you don't have to be a golf member, just a social member". Does that mean golfers don't have to pay the $25,000 initiation fee to have that? Are you meaning that golf membership is not mandatory if you don't want to golf? Or you can golf by paying the monthly fee and not have to be pay the initiation?

FYI, I'm not trying to hi-jack the thread, but since the properties (TV and RB) are so close together, I feel it's good for potential buyers to know the differences so they can decide with all the facts out there.

For TV, we have no golf initiation fee at all. There is an unlimited golf option, and that cost varies depending on if you own your own cart and whether it's for a single or a family. The most expensive option is unlimited golf for the family, unlimited club-owned cart fees, and unlimited range balls for the driving range. That would be right around $5050 per year, and no initiation. There are numerous other ways to configure it that are less expensive, such as if one family member is a more avid golfer and wants unlimited, and one wants to pay as they go. There are also discounts for off-season play, and for tee times after 2 pm. There's also a 10% pre-pay discount if you set up a pre-pay account and keep some funds in there. DH and I usually just play nine holes, after 2 pm, with our own cart. With the pre-pay discount, we can play 9 holes for two people for $18 after 2pm.

Our social club is $10/ year, and is not mandatory. We have no dining fees. Some fraction of the POA dues subsidize the restaurants, so that somewhat offsets the difference in POA fees I suppose. Recreation/fitness center dues are optional. Basically you don't have to pay for what you don't use.
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Old 04-29-2017, 10:00 AM
 
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Exrvi, TennTitan and wish itwerebetter: It was a breath of fresh air to finally hear from persons who actually live in Rarity Bay. Thank you very much, especially for the “behind the scenes” info, much of which I was not able to get to through my own investigations.

TheShadow: Although I am not a golfer, I appreciate the info you provided regarding the differences in living economics between the communities of Rarity Bay and Tellico Village.

We visited these two communities twice in the past six months but are probably a year or two away from making a move. As TheShadow mentioned, the two communities are “quite different”. Living economics and property management issues aside, it would be hard for me to imagine that a person interested in one would be interested in the other.

In fact, we were immediately struck by these three major differences:

Privacy. Rarity Bay (RB) is not only guard-gated but is on a peninsula with no “through” traffic. In contrast, Tellico Village (TB) has a public “through road” (Highway 444) running down the middle of it and the businesses in TV which TheShadow mentioned are fully accessible to the general public. The general public is also free to roam around the various neighborhoods in the TV community. A clear choice depending on the extent to which you are inclined to pay extra for additional privacy and security.

Architecture. Generally speaking, the homes in RB are French Country or Country Casual in architectural style. In contrast, the architectural styles of the homes in TV are all over the map. I cannot stress the impact of seeing so much variation in architecture even in the same block of a given neighborhood. A clear choice depending on the extent to which you desire architectural consistency or flexibility.

Landscape. RB, with more open land free of trees and with its ‘rolling hills” landscape, has a “countryside estate” feel to it (although it is bound to lose a bit of that feel as more homes are constructed). In contrast, the “forested” approach of TV appeared to hide the various neighborhoods and cut one neighborhood off from another neighborhood. As a result, it was difficult to get a feel for the sheer size of TV. A clear choice depending on the extent to which you want an open or forested landscape.

I agree with TheShadow that RB seems to “cater more to the super high-income retirees”. In fact, the net impact (at least to me) of the three differences noted above is that RB certainly does come across as a much more financially exclusive community. In fact, aiming so high in a state that is relatively poor may present RB’s greatest risk factor. If anyone is interested in me elaborating on that risk factor, I will be more than happy to do so.

Last edited by mtnpath; 04-29-2017 at 11:12 AM.. Reason: Font
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Old 04-29-2017, 02:24 PM
 
4 posts, read 14,927 times
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Wish and the others,

Back in May 2015 out of state lot owners (no house)received the "last reasonable" bill for mandatory Social Membership $94.00 + 8.70 tax = $102.70 per quarter, that is $34.23 per month or $410.80 annually.
(over the years under Michael Ross there was approx. 5% (modest) annual cap on social membership dues)

Begin of January 2017 out of state lot owners are paying monthly fee of $157.00 + 14.52 (9.25 tax) = $171.52 monthly, $514.56 quarterly or $2,058.27 annually

This is a 400% increase on the top of the monthly fees of $34.23 what lot owners used to pay before new Rarity Bay declarant actions.
At this time no fee cap is set, sky is the limit

Please note that tax is also $139.46 = 400% more for the same "service"

OUT OF STATE LOT OWNERS CAN NOT ENJOY THE CLUB AMENITIES FOR OBVIOUS REASON "THEY DO NOT LIVE THERE",
MANY HOMEOWNERS AND OTHERS, SO CALLED "EXEMPT PERSON" ARE NOT REQUIRED TO HAVE MANDATORY ("for ever" and no option to resign because it is in the deed cleverly included) CLUB MEMBERSHIP. THEY ENJOY A "FREE RIDE" AT THE EXPENSE OF THE LOT OWNERS AND SOCIAL MEMBERSHIP FEE PAYING HOMEOWNERS...... and that is the big issue beside $5,000.00 transfer fees and property values. Most lots being sold for cents on the dollar.

Is this fair?

This "Mandatory" Club membership is completely absurd, bad for RB

I hope these numbers would help clarify the dues increases and taxes.
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Old 05-01-2017, 08:39 AM
 
Location: East TN
11,103 posts, read 9,746,390 times
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You're right, mtnpath. I don't think that the same people would want to live in RB as TV. TV is so much more economically diverse. We do have some super high income folks in TV, but they don't feel the need to be geographically separated from people with moderate incomes. The vibe is just different too. TV is much more fun oriented, and we have events and activities from both ends of the spectrum. Yes we have "ladies luncheons with fashion show" at the yacht club, but we also have Brat Fest (annual fundraiser for the lake towing service) with unlimited brats and beer on the patio at the same facility. There's something for everyone in TV, and you might live next door to a paramedic or a retired CFO from a major auto company.
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Old 05-09-2017, 06:46 PM
 
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TheShadow, if you are not on TV's marketing team, you should be! Glad to hear how very happy you are living there.

One of the RB posters in this thread said that living at RB "is a blast", so I guess the issue of which community is more "fun" is simply a matter of personal preference (as I thought it might be).

And I've certainly not picked up any signs of arrogance or elitism with respect to those few residents of RB who I've met or who have posted on this board. But, of course, I don't know whether my limited "pool" includes any super high income folks who may be hiding the fact that they targeted RB with a goal of separating themselves from people with moderate incomes. LOL! Hard to believe very successful and confident people would be that insecure.

Besides, with used condos in RB going as low as $109,900 and lots in RB going as low as $15,000, it is not as if those with moderate incomes are priced out of RB. WindRiver on the other hand!!!

Last edited by mtnpath; 05-09-2017 at 07:01 PM.. Reason: Added to original post.
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Old 05-11-2017, 07:28 AM
 
Location: East TN
11,103 posts, read 9,746,390 times
Reputation: 40479
Next time I play pickleball with the marketing guy I'll tell him I want on the payroll. LOL.

I'm sure RB is a fun place to live too. As I mentioned earlier, I don't know any RB residents so I'm not privy to what sort of events and atmosphere they have over there. I'm just going by the vibe I get the few times I've had reason to enter the gate. I just enjoy the true "something for everyone" atmosphere we have going on. If there is something you enjoy and TV doesn't have a club for it, start one and I guarantee that, out of 7500 residents, there will be someone else who will want to participate. That's how all the clubs and groups here got started and continue to be formed today.
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Old 05-11-2017, 10:27 AM
 
68 posts, read 201,244 times
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The perception that Rarity Bay attracts only the super-wealthy is just that - a perception. I am describing the current environment, of course. Before the recession, and the downturn in property values, perhaps it was more the case that RB attracted only the very wealthy. Lot prices had reached a premium level, in which waterfront lots, purchased in the '90's for $179,000, we're being sold for $450,000, and more.

When my wife and I were looking for an active retirement community, located on a lake, eastern Tennessee was brought to our attention as a result of attending a "Live South," exhibition and show. We visited all the usual suspects, but came to prefer the Tellico Lake area because the water level was not drastically lowered, seasonally. We eventually settled on RB, preferring the look of a consistent architecture, and living in a smaller community. I doubt most residents were motivated by an attempt to separate themselves from people of lesser means. Within RB, I believe there is a great variance of wealth among residents. Those who are retired behave as any other individuals living on fixed incomes, whether they really need to, or not. They still have the same concern of outliving their money. People, generally, do not discuss their wealth, how they achieved it, or even how successful their careers may have been. There are the few that are labeled, PIP's, "Previously Important People," but that is usually attributed to their behavior, rather than to any boasting. RB may have an unusually high percentage of residents with type "A" personalities, which is a common, anecdotal explanation.

Mtnpath, in regards to the subject of, "risk," I would like to hear your thoughts, but I will explain my own. For anyone who is contemplating the purchase of property in RB for investment purposes, I think you might find better investments with lower risks. The situation in RB is tenuous; there are not enough indications that would lead me to believe that the purchase of a lot or house, at this time, would net you a positive return in the foreseeable future. However, we all need a place to live, and RB is a beautiful community, with a lot of nice people and enough activities for those approaching retirement or already retired. A new house can be had for $450,000. Club dues may always be a concern, but for those moving to the area, especially from higher-taxed locations, the outlay will likely still be less.

Our decision to move to RB relied on our belief that we will be happy during the 20 - 30 years of planned residency. The speculation of an investment was removed from the decision-making process, recognizing that such speculation is more of an abstract consideration. We will be happy if this investment turns a profit, but we want to be happy long before the financial return, or loss, becomes known.
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:38 PM
 
32 posts, read 113,524 times
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TennTitan, I will be more than happy to opine on the “risk factor” I alluded to (even though it is one that is already well known in these communities). Although it is unlikely that I will have any “original thoughts” on this subject, it may be useful to some to hear the views of a person who is on the outside of these communities “looking in”.

There is a poster in the retirement forum (mathjak107) who often speaks about “sequence risk”, i.e., the seldom-considered risk factor related to the order in which the appreciation or depreciation of an asset takes place (e.g., if you start off with a 50% decline, you will need 100% appreciation just to break even which, even if it is possible, may take more time than many retirees have left). He has stated that, especially if you are a retiree in a decumulation or spending down phase, the success rate of an investment may depend more on this factor than on your actual year-to-year unrealized gains or losses. Although he refers to this concept primarily in the context of equity investments, I believe it is equally applicable to the timing of purchases of high priced homes, especially those which may be located in a market which is highly sensitive to "ups and downs" in the value of homes located in communities far away.

Generally speaking, there is always market risk when a retiree buys a home in a high end luxury home community in a relatively low income state like Tennessee. If you buy at the wrong time, there is a chance that your property may never get back, for the remainder of your life, to the price you paid. Not a big deal for those who have found their final, permanent home (except to their heirs), but obviously something to consider for those who may someday decide to sell (for whatever reason).

RB and TV share an important similarity in that the home values in each community appear to be very closely tied to the real estate prospects in its feeder markets. In short, the values of the homes in RB and TV are extremely sensitive to changes in the flow of incoming home equity dollars (realized through home sales elsewhere) transferred from other parts of the country. If prospects in other parts of the country are unable to sell their homes or sell such homes at a reasonable price (i.e., if the aggregate realizable amount of those home equity dollars shrinks), the flow of those home equity dollars into RB and TV may slow substantially or even stop altogether. Given local economics, if that happens, there is virtually no chance that Tennesseans will pick up the slack. In fact, assuming local Tennesseans could get over their disdain for communities which some have referred to as “Yankee Prisons”, it is unlikely that those few interested Tennesseans would even consider homes in RB and TV until the home prices in such communities adjust to what today would be considered “fire sale” price levels, i.e., are reduced to levels comparable in pricing to other local neighborhoods which have little to no “transplants”.

Because Tellico Village is a CDP (i.e., a Census-Designated Place), there is some information available to (very generally) assess its risk factor. According to 2015 census data, those living in the Tellico Village CDP had a median household income of $68,771 and occupied housing units with a median value of $367,100. Thus, the ratio of median home value to median household income is a stunning 5.34x. In my view, the higher this ratio, the greater the potential sequence risk.

In contrast, per the 2015 census data, those living in Farragut, TN (which has a more local flavor than TV) had a median household income of $107,590 and occupied housing units with a median value of $323,000, a much more modest ratio of 3.00x. Although Farragut certainly has many transplants, I doubt that it is even close to being as dependent as TV on home equity dollars being transferred from other parts of the country.

As this post is already somewhat lengthy, more on this subject in my next post.

Last edited by mtnpath; 05-11-2017 at 02:54 PM..
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Old 05-11-2017, 02:50 PM
 
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Unfortunately, RB is too small a community for such census demographic data to be available. Thus, I’m “flying blind” in my ability to even generally assess the sequence risk factor of that community. That said, if I make the assumption, unsupported by data, that RB’s home value/income ratio is more similar to TV’s ratio than to Farragut’s (based on RB having, like TV, very few households with native Tennesseans residing), perhaps taking a closer look at the possible sequence risk at TV will give me some sense of the possible risk at RB.

IF we encounter another bear market in real estate on a national scale, local community banks, if they decide to lend at all, will probably strongly prefer that any mortgage not exceed twice the household income of the prospective borrower and that such borrower put at least 20% down. This combination results in a target 2.5x ratio of home price to household income.

Even making the wildly optimistic assumption that median household incomes stay at 2015 levels even as real estate prices plunge, the local Tennessean successful enough to have earnings at the median household income level of those who reside in these luxury home communities, upon visiting his or her local community bank to see about a mortgage loan for a purchase in Farragut or TV, could expect to be limited, in Farragut, to a maximum home price south of $269,000 (or nearly 17% below the $323,000 median home price level in Farragut), and in TV, to a maximum home price south of $172,000 (or more than 53% below the $367,100 median home price level in TV).

Of course, the affected current owners of homes in either community could choose not to sell but, given enough time, there would usually be some sales (including estate sales) and those sales would then become the latest “comps” for home valuations. Just because a person decides not to sell does not mean the market value of his or her home has not taken a hit.

My “gut” tells me that, at the present time, there is considerable sequence risk in purchasing a home in RB or TV (but very little risk to renting a home in either community). I think this because, in my experience, a “correction” in a given market is usually not finished until there is a wash-out of inventory held back (i.e., the “give up” phase). In my view, the last bear market in real estate in the 2006 through 2011 timeframe did not get to that point in most markets and certainly not in RB or TV. For example, the real estate listing history of a number of homes in RB and TV indicate that many homeowners, who were unsuccessful in selling their homes just before and during the last bear market in real estate, are still trying to sell those homes a decade later, i.e., that inventory has not yet been washed out and those persons are still “hoping” to get out at a decent price.

Thus, as unlikely as another major bear market in real estate may appear to be, I must give this risk factor (involving possible severe downward price adjustments resulting from a cut off in the flow of home equity dollars from locations outside east TN) at least some weigh in the process of evaluating communities like Farragut, TV and RB. I only wish I had this demographic data for Rarity Bay. All I know is that, generally speaking, this risk factor for TV (and probably RB) may be at least three times greater than this risk factor for Farragut.

Since many other factors come into play in any decision to relocate, this risk factor is simply one of many, many considerations. However, for me to ignore this risk factor entirely would be to do so at my own peril.

In short, the currently disturbing state of affairs between the property/home owners at RB and the new RB developer is not the only reason we are inclined to proceed slowly and cautiously in exploring any opportunities at RB.

Last edited by mtnpath; 05-11-2017 at 03:12 PM..
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