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One suggestion I have is to not be allowed to pick any of your stocks from last year. I don’t plan to play this year, mainly because I would choose Nvidia again, and what fun would that be?
One suggestion I have is to not be allowed to pick any of your stocks from last year. I don’t plan to play this year, mainly because I would choose Nvidia again, and what fun would that be?
Hopefully not, I plan on using at least one from this year, and possibly one from last year. But good job this year on your picks.
I expected that response, although you are getting a bit carried away and I dare say "odd" itself.
Yes have fun and play the game. But you still do it within the boundries of the topic of this forum I would think. This is the investment forum, no? Maybe take it to the gambling forum which I think is under hobbies. There is a list of rules for this game on the very first post, does that also prevent you from having fun? Does the "no penny stock" rule prevent you from having fun?
Simply incorporate a risk volatility rating, maybe a beta, into the rules to limit these "all or nothing" results. It should actually make the game more fun and competitive I would think by leveling the playing field.
I have to agree with you. I am on this forum to learn from the other members. I followed their stock picks and evaluated their choices.
One suggestion I have is to not be allowed to pick any of your stocks from last year. I don’t plan to play this year, mainly because I would choose Nvidia again, and what fun would that be?
Hey like they say "past performance is no guarantee of future performance" so I see no reason to make that a rule, but I respect your decision to change it up for variety and the fun factor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by organic_donna
I have to agree with you.
Thanks, I truly think it will make the game more fun and better indicative of a true investment scenario.
It's time to start planning for the 2024 Stock Picking Game.
I like the way the game ran for 2023 (other than the fact I won't win)
The rules:
If you pay attention to my posts (as you all should!!) then you know I'm not a fan of "binary" bets.
The rules for 2024
1. 100,000 total investment
2. 3, 4 or 5 stocks.
3. Minimum placed on any 1 stock is $20,000
4. No Funds/Indexes etc. The point is to choose individual stocks
5. I must be able to look it automatically via Google Finance. So if it's too exotic for Google Finance, you can't play it.
6. No penny stocks. All stocks chosen must have a share price of $1.00 or more.
7. No Crypto bets/stocks
You can give me your choices anytime, and still have the right to alter them until market opens in 2024.
Thank you so much for doing this. Love this game. Please include me. I will send my picks soon.
CI - managed care, employee insurance + PBM. Very reliable compounder with the Humana deal off the table. Better than stocks on the whole in the likely case of a recession next year albeit worse than less employer exposed insurers. Some political risk; probably will dip in election season and will end the year strong if the democrats don't get the trifecta, weak if they do. Buybacks! 12ish P/E. Own a good chunk of this IRL
CNC - managed care again, medicaid and some exchange / medicare. Less reliable but cheap. New CEO seems more focused on operational improvement than taking big swings which I see as a good thing. One of the rare companies to outright benefit from a recession. Some political risk, probably will dip in election season and will end the year strong if neither party gets the trifecta, weak if either does. Buybacks! 11ish P/E. Own a good chunk of this IRL
IMKTA - regional grocer. Were heavily indebted before Covid, used the Covid profit bump to pay off the debt. Doubled over Covid as grocery inflation + debt heavy balance sheet was rocket fuel. Own a lot of their own real estate bought with pre-Covid dollars. Using cashflow to pay off debt which isn't shareholder friendly but in 2-3 years the debt will be gone and good chance it will have another run up then as it potentially starts sending cashflow to shareholders. 2024 is probably too early here for a "new" position rather than continuing a pre-Covid hold, but hey maybe some whale sees the same thing I do and gets in ahead of time. It's a grocer so again recession resistant. 8ish p/e. Own a good chunk of this IRL
DFS - credit card fees + portfolio; Amex for people with bad credit or who never replaced their old discover card from back when they were competitive with rewards. This is temporarily cheap because of a scandal with overcharging some merchants, the old CEO resigning over it, and the fact that their customers are a bad risk in a recession which I'm not the only one who expects a high chance of next year. However, outside recession risk they are a quality company trading for very cheap and if I am wrong about a recession and the economy does well next year (or even if there is a recession but it isn't that deep) this should run off the unusually low valuation and offset the more conservative picks. Buybacks! 8ish p/e. IRL I own a little but am much heavier in Amex.
QCOM - I have owned this and KLA for years and never understood why the market let me own such high quality compounders for so cheap. Market finally caught religion on KLA, maybe 2024 is Qualcomm's year? Some risk if the phone replacement market slows down in a recession but also emerging growth in automotive which is still too small to move the needle on earnings but could become a narrative and as always stupid cheap relative to growth and capital efficiency. 16ish p/e. Own a good chunk of this IRL
Honorable mention to VRTX which would have made the cut over QCOM if it hadn't spiked 20% in the last week.
CI - managed care, employee insurance + PBM. Very reliable compounder with the Humana deal off the table. Better than stocks on the whole in the likely case of a recession next year albeit worse than less employer exposed insurers. Some political risk; probably will dip in election season and will end the year strong if the democrats don't get the trifecta, weak if they do. Buybacks! 12ish P/E. Own a good chunk of this IRL
CNC - managed care again, medicaid and some exchange / medicare. Less reliable but cheap. New CEO seems more focused on operational improvement than taking big swings which I see as a good thing. One of the rare companies to outright benefit from a recession. Some political risk, probably will dip in election season and will end the year strong if neither party gets the trifecta, weak if either does. Buybacks! 11ish P/E. Own a good chunk of this IRL
IMKTA - regional grocer. Were heavily indebted before Covid, used the Covid profit bump to pay off the debt. Doubled over Covid as grocery inflation + debt heavy balance sheet was rocket fuel. Own a lot of their own real estate bought with pre-Covid dollars. Using cashflow to pay off debt which isn't shareholder friendly but in 2-3 years the debt will be gone and good chance it will have another run up then as it potentially starts sending cashflow to shareholders. 2024 is probably too early here for a "new" position rather than continuing a pre-Covid hold, but hey maybe some whale sees the same thing I do and gets in ahead of time. It's a grocer so again recession resistant. 8ish p/e. Own a good chunk of this IRL
DFS - credit card fees + portfolio; Amex for people with bad credit or who never replaced their old discover card from back when they were competitive with rewards. This is temporarily cheap because of a scandal with overcharging some merchants, the old CEO resigning over it, and the fact that their customers are a bad risk in a recession which I'm not the only one who expects a high chance of next year. However, outside recession risk they are a quality company trading for very cheap and if I am wrong about a recession and the economy does well next year (or even if there is a recession but it isn't that deep) this should run off the unusually low valuation and offset the more conservative picks. Buybacks! 8ish p/e. IRL I own a little but am much heavier in Amex.
QCOM - I have owned this and KLA for years and never understood why the market let me own such high quality compounders for so cheap. Market finally caught religion on KLA, maybe 2024 is Qualcomm's year? Some risk if the phone replacement market slows down in a recession but also emerging growth in automotive which is still too small to move the needle on earnings but could become a narrative and as always stupid cheap relative to growth and capital efficiency. 16ish p/e. Own a good chunk of this IRL
Honorable mention to VRTX which would have made the cut over QCOM if it hadn't spiked 20% in the last week.
Thank you for explaining your choices. I will watch your stocks now that I know a little about them.
I'll play for fun. These are stocks chosen from a screen that looks for high return on invested capital and high earnings yield (low p/e). Joel Greenblatt describes this strategy in The Little Book That Beats the Market. It's recommended to invest in at least 20 stocks, and even then the returns from year to year are extremely volatile. According to Greenblatt, the best long term returns are gained by selecting a very low market cap limit for the screen, so that's what I did. Since the game here sets a limit of five holdings, I'll put equal amounts in the five prospects listed below. I started with a longer list of stocks from the screen, and made the selections at random from that list.
I currently own none of these. If I can free up enough $$ in a tax-deferred account I may try the 20-stock version with some real money.
pltk
immr
vygr
rmni
mcft
Hiker The only PITK I can find is some kind of mutual fund from Thailand or something. Can't have a fund. Can you clarify or pick another stock from your list?
Hiker The only PITK I can find is some kind of mutual fund from Thailand or something. Can't have a fund. Can you clarify or pick another stock from your list?
It’s PLTK
Thanks
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