The TSLA Investment Thread

[kishac]

I don’t see any significance to the seeking alpha article. Regarding the cash balance, I don’t see how teslas practice is unique. A customer secures financing for his vehicle by the time he receives the vehicle. This is standard practice. Suppliers are typically (not always) paid on Net30 terms. So payment to various suppliers happens on a rolling basis throughout the quarter.

As for accrued liabilities (e.g. sales taxes to the government), again, whatever wasn’t paid in the prior quarter is paid the following quarter. So if even if tesla manipulated its payments timings in one quarter, they would still have to pay it the following quarter.

[kishac]

Bullish outlook
- There's some good news on the progress of the Semi program, as Pepsi is adding orders for additional units, and Walmart is also in line. Volume production is still a while into the future (high profitability even more so) but this is a huge market. By the way, those who equate the delays to outright program failure are completely missing the point.
- Model Y Juniper refresh might happen sooner than most think, since the current Model Y is being offered at 1% financing.
- New model unveil may happen this year.
- There was a recent report that Tesla is now producing about 1000 cybertrucks per week. This can add $100M or so to Tesla's cash position by the end of Q2.

Bearish
- I think there's a strong likelihood that Elon will sell some shares this year if the stock price continues to rise.
- Elon may pout and threaten to leave Tesla if the pay package gets voted down by shareholders. It'll probably be an empty threat but something that can be a negative headline.