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No way Biden gets 83 million votes unless the ballot boxes get stuffed and the dead come out of their graves. You keep mentioning the abortion issue but for most people that's way down on the list of things that are important. Abortion is also a state's issue, not Federal. Why are you so hung up on this?
This country has seen enough of Biden. He is a disaster and a failure. The sooned he's gone, the better off we'll be.
I agree with your entire post, but regarding the bold -- I think and hope that people will finally realize that before the election.
The women's healthcare/right to safe abortions is a huge factor for women. If a woman is in a state that restricts her access--Arizona (upholding the 1864 law on abortion), for example, the states have had their say, and it limits her rights.
As-a-result, it could easily lose Trump the election.
That's why Kari Lake is now suddenly "Pro-Choice."
think Trump loses voters. People have seen him as President already, and it wasn't great.
Yet, that's not what the recent NYT-Siena poll (which 538 and RCP rate as top-tier) finds...
Quote:
a New York Times-Siena poll that found the Biden-Trump race overall almost exactly tied, with Trump leading Biden by a single percentage point, 46% to 45%. Later in the poll, the pollsters asked these two questions: “Do you generally remember the years that Donald Trump was president as mostly good years for America, mostly bad years for America, or not really good or bad?” and “Do you think the years that Joe Biden has been president have been mostly good years for America, mostly bad years for America, or not really good or bad?”
Trump had a solid advantage in voters’ recollections, with 42% saying his presidential years were mostly good years for America, while just 25% said Biden’s presidential years have been mostly good for America. Trump also had a solid advantage on the other side of the answer, with 33% saying his presidential years were mostly bad for America, while a much larger 46% said Biden’s presidential years have been mostly bad for America. Trump’s advantage in voters’ memories is nearly across the board. Among men, 53% said the Trump years were mostly good for America, compared to 24% who said the Biden years have been mostly good for America. Among women, the margin was closer, but Trump still led 33% to 27%. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/d...ump-trial-day/
So...
Quote:
What To Make of Biden’s Rise in the Polls?
Two final points are worth noting.First, the movement toward Democrats hasn’t so much been a story of Trump’s poll numbers declining as it has been of Biden’s poll numbers improving. Trump’s vote share has generally been trading between 45.5% and 47%, while Biden seems to have broken out of the 43%-45% range he’d been stuck in since early 2023. Again, this seems broadly consistent with the idea of Democrats who don’t particularly care for Biden resigning themselves to the fact that for better or for worse, he’s the guy. We might also take this as evidence for the theory that Trump has a “ceiling” of 47%. I still don’t think it’s a particularly compelling story, but the evidence for it seems stronger than it did a few months ago.
Finally, we should remember that a narrow popular vote win, or even a narrow popular vote loss, is likely to produce a Trump win in the Electoral College. Obviously, we don’t know for sure that Trump will benefit from the electoral vote skew again this time, but it’s consistent with the state-level polling we’ve seen. Also, the tendency has been for Trump to overperform his polls, although we should be cautious about drawing strong conclusions from two datapoints. https://www.realclearpolling.com/sto...cid=a18eb8e420
Regarding the above post, I am not surprised that only 25% of respondents said that the Biden years have been good. Don't forget that not only was COVID still a force in 2021 through about half of 2023, but that this has been a very volatile and divisive time for the U.S. In comparison, I think the Trump years were MUCH better until COVID hit, although of course I realize that many people disagree.
No way Biden gets 83 million votes unless the ballot boxes get stuffed and the dead come out of their graves. You keep mentioning the abortion issue but for most people that's way down on the list of things that are important. Abortion is also a state's issue, not Federal. Why are you so hung up on this?
This country has seen enough of Biden. He is a disaster and a failure. The sooned he's gone, the better off we'll be.
It's currently a state issue.
The Dobbs decision doesn't prevent Congress from passing legislation (then signed by the President in office) that could eliminate the restrictions in each state.
The Dobbs decision doesn't prevent Congress from passing legislation (then signed by the President in office) that could eliminate the restrictions in each state.
I'm not sure how other people are missing this. Abortion was a federal issue ruled by a federal court decision...until it wasn't. There's nothing to prevent federal law from affecting abortion rights. I think the other users are confusing descriptive claims (abortion is currently a state issue) with prescriptive claims (abortion should be a state issue).
The voting numbers are going to be down significantly. Remember they mailed everyone a ballot for 2020, sometimes 2 or 3 ballots. They were buying ballots here for $30-$60 a pop (a guy was arrested for it here in NJ just recently), but its not a bad payday to go out for a nice dinner for a family of 4.
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