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These BIG 10 counties in the 7 most crucial swing states will help Biden PREVAIL IN the 2024 election, just look at the margin (in terms of # of votes) Biden won by in 2020:
01. Philadelphia, PA : Biden +471,305 votes
02. Wayne, MI : Biden +332,617 votes
03. DeKalb, GA : Biden +249,785 votes
04. Fulton, GA : Biden +242,965 votes
05. Mecklenburg, NC : Biden +198,896 votes
06. Milwaukee, WI : Biden +183,045 votes
07. Dane, WI : Biden +181,327 votes
08. Wake, NC : Biden +167,139 votes
09. Allegheny, PA : Biden +147,846 votes
10. Montgomery, PA : Biden +134,051 votes
Polls Show Biden Losing Support Among Black and Hispanic Voters
...Exit polls from the 2020 election estimate Trump won 12% of the black vote, 32% of the Hispanic vote, 31% of the Asian vote, and 57% of the white vote. Biden’s highest share of support was among African American voters at 87%, but he doubled Trump’s support among Hispanic and Asian voters as well.
...A recent Quinnipiac University poll puts Trump’s support among black voters at 23% (Biden claimed 69% support), and shows Trump’s support among Hispanic voters (47%) topping Biden’s (44%). If these numbers hold, Biden will be the first Democratic nominee since the civil rights era to earn less than 80% of the black vote, making this a potentially historic election indeed. https://www.realclearpolling.com/sto...cid=3f7de39407
The equation is different in each state, but Trump winning by several thousand votes each in numerous smaller counties can cancel out the large Biden margins in a limited number of big counties.
If Democratic support among minorities collapses (which I'm not sold on among Blacks at least) this would be evident in counties like Philadelphia (PA), Wayne (MI) and Milwaukee (WI). Counties with a large share of college educated voters like Dane (WI) and Wake (NC) are more likely to turn out for Biden, if only because Trump is absolutely loathed in such places even if their states end up voting red overall.
These BIG 10 counties in the 7 most crucial swing states will help Biden PREVAIL IN the 2024 election, just look at the margin (in terms of # of votes) Biden won by in 2020:
01. Philadelphia, PA : Biden +471,305 votes
02. Wayne, MI : Biden +332,617 votes
03. DeKalb, GA : Biden +249,785 votes
04. Fulton, GA : Biden +242,965 votes
05. Mecklenburg, NC : Biden +198,896 votes
06. Milwaukee, WI : Biden +183,045 votes
07. Dane, WI : Biden +181,327 votes
08. Wake, NC : Biden +167,139 votes
09. Allegheny, PA : Biden +147,846 votes
10. Montgomery, PA : Biden +134,051 votes
You throw numbers like they mean something. What makes you think Joe will get the same votes from 2020. When a President goes from 50% approval to 39% approval, it means he lost a big chunk of support.
You sound like a Democrat pollster. Is that the plan?
The equation is different in each state, but Trump winning by several thousand votes each in numerous smaller counties can cancel out the large Biden margins in a limited number of big counties.
If Democratic support among minorities collapses (which I'm not sold on among Blacks at least) this would be evident in counties like Philadelphia (PA), Wayne (MI) and Milwaukee (WI). Counties with a large share of college educated voters like Dane (WI) and Wake (NC) are more likely to turn out for Biden, if only because Trump is absolutely loathed in such places even if their states end up voting red overall.
Regarding younger voters...
Quote:
Young Voters Are More Concerned With the Economy. That’s Bad for Biden
At a time when Donald Trump is cutting into Biden’s 2020 advantage with young adults, the growing list of grievances among those between the ages 18-29 is a worrying sign for Biden as he seeks a second term.
People in that age cohort are more than twice as likely to cite the economy as their top concern compared with older adults in recent Gallup data. And while all voters are more worried about the economy now than they were heading into the 2020 presidential election, the pessimism has spiked the most among those under 30.
That concern is being reflected in polls. Trump is currently leading the president 47% to 40% with voters 18-34 in swing states, according to a March Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. By contrast, Biden won 61% of voters under 30 last cycle.
Though the November election is months off and attitudes can shift, there’s no doubt Biden will need support from Generation Z and Millennial voters to win. https://www.yahoo.com/news/young-vot...100000722.html
The equation is different in each state, but Trump winning by several thousand votes each in numerous smaller counties can cancel out the large Biden margins in a limited number of big counties.
If Democratic support among minorities collapses (which I'm not sold on among Blacks at least) this would be evident in counties like Philadelphia (PA), Wayne (MI) and Milwaukee (WI). Counties with a large share of college educated voters like Dane (WI) and Wake (NC) are more likely to turn out for Biden, if only because Trump is absolutely loathed in such places even if their states end up voting red overall.
2020 Trump got 12% of the AA vote. It's not unreasonable to suggest he'll get a solid 18-19% in 2024 and 40-42% of the Hispanic vote. In the battleground states that spells bad news for Joe B.
Now, toss in a higher percentage of younger voters for Trump and the addition of 3rd party candidates - I don't see where Biden makes up the votes.
Trump will likely carry Arizona (Kennedy has made the ballot) Georgia and North Carolina.
He'll also pick off at least one of the below states. PA might be a difficult unless C. West makes the ballot (along with Kennedy/Stein), but the other two Trump has an excellent chance of winning.
2020
Wisconsin
Final result: Biden 0.7
RCP Ave: Biden 6.7
Michigan
Final result: Biden 2.6
RCP Ave: Biden 4.2
Pennsylvania
Final result: Biden 1.2
RCP Ave: Biden 1.2
Trump would have the election in the bag if he'd stop doing stupid things like name-calling, jumping on the judges daughter and causing another gag order - things of that nature. He needs to just sit back and act normally and let Joe continue to dig is hole. Act being the operative word.
Trump would have the election in the bag if he'd stop doing stupid things like name-calling, jumping on the judges daughter and causing another gag order - things of that nature. He needs to just sit back and act normally and let Joe continue to dig is hole. Act being the operative word.
You think what they are doing to him normal? You think the party in power throwing their weight on their main political rival normal. You think if he just sits back and act normal (whatever that means) all these political attacks since 2016 will stop. You remind me of these people that attacks the defender from the aggressor because you don't like him and ignore the aggressor.
Maybe if he looks down and don't say a word, he wouldn't upset these hacks and they would go away and not corrupt the justice system or the political process.
You think what they are doing to him normal? You think the party in power throwing their weight on their main political rival normal. You think if he just sits back and act normal (whatever that means) all these political attacks since 2016 will stop. You remind me of these people that attacks the defender from the aggressor because you don't like him and ignore the aggressor.
Maybe if he looks down and don't say a word, he wouldn't upset these hacks and they would go away and not corrupt the justice system or the political process.
So you think it's acceptable to pay off your mistress with campaign funds? He literally wouldn't have to attack this judges daughter had he not done that. This problems are of his own doing.
You throw numbers like they mean something. What makes you think Joe will get the same votes from 2020. When a President goes from 50% approval to 39% approval, it means he lost a big chunk of support.
You sound like a Democrat pollster. Is that the plan?
It's not a given Trump gets the same level of support either. Trump had record numbers of votes in rural and exurban areas, there is no guarantee those same voters are as motivated/motivated by the same issues/even alive.
TBH- this election could very well come down to white women in the suburbs. If the north Atlanta burbs shift 2% due to abortion all the clamoring over losing another 3-4% the AA males in Atlanta and close in suburbs is not as important. Similarly the collar counties around Philly also going more D offsets a loss in AA voters. Same story in the WOW counties around Milwaukee that were traditionally R strongholds. This scenario already played out to a lesser degree in 2020.
I doubt either campaign is as flat-footed or dense as the 2016 Clinton campaign that just assumed all former D partisan voters would magically reappear on election day. There is still plenty of room for both campaigns to find or reengage additional voters. And both do face an upper ceiling on which voters are even available.
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