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Democratic Congressman Donald McEachin of Virginia's 4th district passed away today following a battle with cancer. McEachin was first elected in 2016 and just elected to his 4th term in Congress. A Special Election will be called by Governor Glenn Youngkin. The date is now known yet. The 4th district generally covers portions of east-central and southeast Virginia (outside of the coast) including much of the metro Richmond area and is heavily Democratic
Open Senate Seats Currently one member of the Senate has decided not to seek re-election and it is a Republican
Open Republican Senate Seats
1. Indiana Mike Braun- Running for Governor
Trump 56.9-40.9
*Note there will be a Special Election in Nebraska for the last two years of Republican Ben Sasse's term, who announced he will resign from the Senate at the end of the year. If whoever gets appointed runs to finish the term, I will not include since it will technically be an Incumbent, if that person does not run, I will include (the speculation is outgoing Govenor Republican Pete Ricketts will be appointed to the seat and run for re-election, though that isn't certain)
Open House Seats One member of Congress has announced he will not run for re-election and it is a Republican
Open Republican Seats in the House
1. WV-02 Alex Mooney- running for Senate
Trump 67.6-30.6
Special Elections
There is one upcoming Special Election in a previously held Democratic seat
Special Elections in a previously held Democratic seat
1. VA-04- Donald McEachin - passed away November 28th 2022
Biden 67.2-31.5
As of the time of this post, going into the new Congress in January 2023, Democrats will hold a Majority in the Senate with a 50-49 advantage, with a Georgia runoff deciding the last Senate seat. In the House, going into the New Congress in January 2023 the Republicans hold a 221-212 advantage with one seat remaining to be called and one seat to be determined by a Special Election
The left wing extremist representing VA-4 died of cancer a couple days ago. Will that solidly Democratic district find someone even crazier to send to Congress? Probably.
Usually if there is an appointment it will be from the same party even if the Governor is from a different party until there is an election.
Vacancies in the Senate are often filled by Appointment from the Governor until the next General Election and a Special Election will be held to finish the remaining years on the term. Rules on who can be appointed can vary by state.
Vacancies in the House are not done by Appointment and always done with a Special Election called by the Governor. States have differing guidelines on when the Special Election can be held. Some states have timelines that dictate how long after a vacancy a Special Election must be held, while others the decision lies primarily with the Governor.
Nebraska Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts on Tuesday announced that he will seek an appointment to serve as the state's next U.S. Senator.
Ricketts, whose final term as governor expires at the end of the year, hopes to fill the seat that will be vacated by retiring Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb.
"This decision is the result of many hours of prayer and family discussions," Ricketts said in a statement, according to KETV. "For me, it came down to a single question: How can I best serve the people of Nebraska and advance our conservative values? In Congress, we’re in a fight for the future of our nation, and it’s a fight we have to win. We must cut taxes, strengthen public safety and our national security, and protect our most sacred freedoms."
The individual appointed by Pillen would serve until January 2025 and a special election will be called for 2024 for the remaining two years of Sasse's term, the Nebraska Secretary of State's office told KETV.
An election for a full six-year Senate term would be held in 2026.
2024 in general is a very good year for Senate Republicans, this is what I predict could happen. Up for reelection are:
Arizona: Kyrsten Sinema (D) --> unless AZ changes their disastrous voting system radically, I'm afraid it has become a blue state by the magic of prolonged ballot counting. D hold Indiana: Braun (R) --> incumbent not running but this is by all measures a red state. R hold Michigan: Stabenow (D) --> Michigan, along with Pennsylvania, seems to be a lost cause going ever bluer as more republican minded residents flee the state to Florida. D hold Montana: Tester (D) --> Tester is not the moderate he likes to claim he is. If the Republican challenger is viable, he will easily coast to victory in this red state. R gain Nevada: Rosen (D) --> If republicans start playing the democrat's game and ballot harvest, Nevada is completely within reach. Having a Republican governor might help too. R gain Ohio: Brown (D) --> As we've seen since 2016, Ohio is increasingly a red state. It'll be an R gain Pennsylvania: Much like Michigan, this is a state that just voted bluer than New York in the midterms. D hold. West Virginia: I don't see how Manchin can pull off another victory after betraying this deep red state with the Green New Deal reworded as "Inflation Reduction Act". R gain Wisconsin: Unlike MI and PA, republicans still have a fighting shot in this state, especially since ballot harvesting and drop boxes have been outlawed. Could be the most competitive of 2024, but I think it will be a slight republican win. R gain
With 5 republican gains and no democrat gains, by a conservative measure the Senate should be at least 55R-45D. Of course things can still change in 2 years, but given how polarized politics has become, it's getting easier to predict voting patterns.
After the 2022 vexation, making predictions for 2024 became pathetic... If Biden re-elects himself, the Democrats are very likely to keep their seats.
The Special Election in Virginia's 4th Congressional District has been set for February 21st. This seat became vacant following the death of Democratic Congressman Donald McEachin in late November.
Open Senate Seats Currently one member of the Senate has decided not to seek re-election and it is a Republican
Open Republican Senate Seats
1. Indiana Mike Braun- Running for Governor
Trump 56.9-40.9
*Note there will be a Special Election in Nebraska in 2024 for the last two years of Republican Ben Sasse's term, (who announced he will resign from the Senate at the end of the year). If whoever, gets appointed runs to finish the term, I will not include since it will technically be an Incumbent, if that person does not run, I will include (outgoing Governor Pete Ricketts announced he will seek the appointment, and while not yet confirmed the speculation is that Ricketts will be appointed and run in 2024).
Open House Seats One member of Congress has announced he will not run for re-election and it is a Republican
Open Republican Seats in the House
1. WV-02 Alex Mooney- running for Senate
Trump 67.6-30.6
Special Elections
There is one upcoming Special Election in a previously held Democratic seat
Special Elections in a previously held Democratic seat
1. VA-04- Donald McEachin - passed away November 28th 2022, Special Election February 21 2023
Biden 67.2-31.5
Going into the new Congress in January the GOP will hold a 222-212 advantage in the House with one vacancy. The Senate under the new Congress in January will be a Democratic advantage either 51-49 or 50-49-1 depending on how Arizona Senator Krysten Sinema (who recently switched from Democrat to Independen) decides to Caucus. While not confirmed, it appears she will continue to Caucus with Democrats which would make it 51-49.
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Governor Ricketts of Nebraska Indicates He Intends To Seek Appointment To The US Senate
