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It has been almost 50 years since the writers elected a player with under 2,000 hits. But we’ve seen a lot of support on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker for both Andruw Jones (1,933 hits) and Chase Utley (1,885). What is that telling us about the way modern voters look at players?
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Actually, the top four vote-getters strike me as excellent to defensible choices:
-Adrian Beltre is the third best 3B of all time by BBRef WAR at 93.5. Only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews have higher such numbers. He’s one of the elite at his position. Definitely belongs in.
-Joe Mauer is the ninth best C of all time by BBRef War at 55.2. Everyone above that level is in the Hall, as are eight non-Negro League catchers below. I’ve seen some gripes about how much catcher he played vs. other positions, but I don’t see that as a problem. Definitely belongs in.
-Todd Helton is the 17th best 1B of all time by BBRef WAR at 61.8. The only players above him not in have PED issues or aren’t eligible yet (Palmeiro, Cabrera, Votto, McGwire), and 14 other non-Negro League 1B below him are enshrined. Definitely belongs in.
-given that the HoF has decided to induct relief pitchers, Billy Wagner isn’t an unreasonable choice. He’s not Mariano Rivera, but then again no other full-time reliever is. He’s certainly comparable to inductees Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith, and rather than seeing him clog up the Veterans Committee pool, I’m okay with pushing him in next year (his last on the ballot). I’m lukewarm generally about inducing relievers because they just aren’t as valuable as starters, but I won’t gripe if he gets in.
Actually, the top four vote-getters strike me as excellent to defensible choices:
-Adrian Beltre is the third best 3B of all time by BBRef WAR at 93.5. Only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews have higher such numbers. He’s one of the elite at his position. Definitely belongs in.
-Joe Mauer is the ninth best C of all time by BBRef War at 55.2. Everyone above that level is in the Hall, as are eight non-Negro League catchers below. I’ve seen some gripes about how much catcher he played vs. other positions, but I don’t see that as a problem. Definitely belongs in.
-Todd Helton is the 17th best 1B of all time by BBRef WAR at 61.8. The only players above him not in have PED issues or aren’t eligible yet (Palmeiro, Cabrera, Votto, McGwire), and 14 other non-Negro League 1B below him are enshrined. Definitely belongs in.
-given that the HoF has decided to induct relief pitchers, Billy Wagner isn’t an unreasonable choice. He’s not Mariano Rivera, but then again no other full-time reliever is. He’s certainly comparable to inductees Trevor Hoffman and Lee Smith, and rather than seeing him clog up the Veterans Committee pool, I’m okay with pushing him in next year (his last on the ballot). I’m lukewarm generally about inducing relievers because they just aren’t as valuable as starters, but I won’t gripe if he gets in.
So are we electing players purely based on statistics nowadays?
So are we electing players purely based on statistics nowadays?
Personally, I don't see why not. I prefer objective ways of evaluating HoF fitness -- especially in baseball, which lends itself well to this way of thinking.
Personally, I don't see why not. I prefer objective ways of evaluating HoF fitness -- especially in baseball, which lends itself well to this way of thinking.
I believe it. Makes sense.
Though unrelated, the winners of the awards in the NFL the other night, the voters did not vote the players with the best or most convincing stats.
Though unrelated, the winners of the awards in the NFL the other night, the voters did not vote the players with the best or most convincing stats.
True enough. Note, though, that raw stats with regard to football are a little different, as the sport is more of a team game, one that relies more heavily on how good your colleagues on the field are. Put Archie Manning on a great team, and he likely would have been a HoFer. Plus, there are all sorts of odd variables, such as what your role is on-field (there's a good reason why pass rushers tend to be heavily represented in the PFHoF as opposed to nose tackles, with the latter tasked with clogging up o-linemen while the edge rushers get the gravy numbers) or how run-heavy vs. pass heavy your offense is (WRs like Paul Warfield and Michael Irvin are solid-choice HoFers despite their comparatively modest raw numbers because they played in run-first offenses). Good quality film study can help clarify such things, as can postseason honors such as first team all-pro, pro bowl, and all-decade team numbers which shine a light on how contemporary observers saw these players in relation to their peers. It hasn't stopped NFL stats guys from trying to find sabremetric approaches that will work for the sport, as with Football Outsiders, though there's plenty of room for improvement.
With baseball, you don't have those kinds of variables (except for fielding stats to an extent), especially when things are adjusted for park, era, and similar things -- especially when it comes to hitting and pitching. That's what sabremetrics has been striving to do for decades now with advanced metrics such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement), OPS+, ERA+, and the like. Consider that batting .300 during the height of the 60s-70s Dead Ball Era is far more impressive than doing so during the 1930s Live Ball Era -- stats like OPS+ do the adjusting for you. I'm a convert, myself, though I'll admit I'm not at the math whiz level many sabremetricians are.
True enough. Note, though, that raw stats with regard to football are a little different, as the sport is more of a team game, one that relies more heavily on how good your colleagues on the field are. Put Archie Manning on a great team, and he likely would have been a HoFer. Plus, there are all sorts of odd variables, such as what your role is on-field (there's a good reason why pass rushers tend to be heavily represented in the PFHoF as opposed to nose tackles, with the latter tasked with clogging up o-linemen while the edge rushers get the gravy numbers) or how run-heavy vs. pass heavy your offense is (WRs like Paul Warfield and Michael Irvin are solid-choice HoFers despite their comparatively modest raw numbers because they played in run-first offenses). Good quality film study can help clarify such things, as can postseason honors such as first team all-pro, pro bowl, and all-decade team numbers which shine a light on how contemporary observers saw these players in relation to their peers. It hasn't stopped NFL stats guys from trying to find sabremetric approaches that will work for the sport, as with Football Outsiders, though there's plenty of room for improvement.
With baseball, you don't have those kinds of variables (except for fielding stats to an extent), especially when things are adjusted for park, era, and similar things -- especially when it comes to hitting and pitching. That's what sabremetrics has been striving to do for decades now with advanced metrics such as WAR (Wins Above Replacement), OPS+, ERA+, and the like. Consider that batting .300 during the height of the 60s-70s Dead Ball Era is far more impressive than doing so during the 1930s Live Ball Era -- stats like OPS+ do the adjusting for you. I'm a convert, myself, though I'll admit I'm not at the math whiz level many sabremetricians are.
You are right. Baseball is much more statistically complex and I bet the players hate it, but the owners love it.
On football, I mean, Lamar Jackson did not have the best statistical season. He was actually ranked lower than a lot of other QBs. If you look at the stats, Josh Allen had the best season. And he did not win MVP. Lamar did and he was on the best team. Usually the MVP is from the best team.
Same with DPOY. Myles Garrett had far inferior stats than TJ Watt, but he won. And the Browns defense was statistically poor (13th in scoring; worst scoring defense on the road).
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