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I only want to reply to #5) Metro/local government fiscal crunch.
Despite what most have to say, Metro needs to experience massive cuts. Every year, regardless of COVID, etc., METRO has been crying that if area governments don't offer more funding, there will be service cuts. Let Metro cut. In reality, METRO has consistently received money to support a system that is completely mismanaged and overrun with lazy, rude, and incompetent employees. Metro wants money to support its highly inflated salaries, lucrative pensions, etc. Metro needs to be revamped. Trains run inefficiently. Station Managers are literally rude, if not highly unprofessional (yes, I said it), and don't get me started on some of these bus drivers who act like they were just released from prison. Also, intra-racism needs to be addressed. Some riders have completely different experiences than others on Metro. There are too many unhinged workers, suffering with extremely low self-esteem and mental issues, employed with Metro. I am still dumbfounded over the recent story about a Metro worker beating an unarmed rider with a metal baton (and only received a sentence of 1-year in prison). Finally, Metro workers are not reprimanded for poor customer service. Their HR Depts and Unions protect them, even though they need to be held accountable for their actions.
I am just unclear as to why the region bows-down to Metro. I honestly wish its management/employee base could be dismantled and restructured by another entity. Having Metro workers that more accurately reflect the vast diversity of the area would be a good start.
The Metro is a joke. I see these horrible minority teenagers every morning (usually Dupont Circle) not paying the Metro fare and just cut jump the turnstiles or get right behind a paying customer to squeeze through. The Metro staff doesn't do a thing about it. I can only imagine the lost revenue the Metro goes through for these absolute pieces of s***s. And these kids aren't going anywhere in life so they will be doing this the rest of their lives. I like the measures they took at Metro Center to make it more difficult to jump the turnstiles. I think it would keep more of these broke punks at home rather than using a free Metro system to antagonize people and just be disrespectful in general.
Yes it is. I used to live right near Woodley Park and completely stopped taking it. Walked/biked/drove/Ubered wherever I needed to go. It's basically an entity for transferring commuters money to union bosses and members.
Much of it will hinge upon the 2024 election and what direction that heads. If Biden or another Democrat wins the election the odds of a rebound are strong given the historical commitment to insuring the health of the District's economy. If for some reason Trump or a GOP candidate wins it's going to further the decline given the hostility currently expressed toward DC operations and the propensity of that group to live in places like McLean or Bethesda.
Then why hasn’t Biden been a positive factor in the downward trends of any of the OPs targets?
Why does DC have to wait for Biden to make a positive impact and why hasn’t Biden done anything to help turn the OPs stats around in DC since he’s been in office for over 3 years?
Last edited by johnsonkk; 02-07-2024 at 05:00 PM..
I saw a report on national news yesterday, CNN I think, that said DC crime is soaring and the DC police didn’t return the reporter’s call.
Hopefully the national attention over DC crime is a bit of a lagging indicator. DC's homicide rate has been down so far YTD. Other crime is mostly flat to down. Obviously this time of year is highly impacted by the weather, so its too early to celebrate. DC's violent crime rate remains higher than a few years ago and higher than pretty much any other peer elite urban city. But, at least there are signs of tentative signs of improvement. https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
Hopefully the national attention over DC crime is a bit of a lagging indicator. DC's homicide rate has been down so far YTD. Other crime is mostly flat to down. Obviously this time of year is highly impacted by the weather, so its too early to celebrate. DC's violent crime rate remains higher than a few years ago and higher than pretty much any other peer elite urban city. But, at least there are signs of tentative signs of improvement. https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance
That’s a handy reference tool. And a good start.
While it is too fatalistic to say this is a make or break year for the District, it certainly entering 2024 with arguably the most negative outlook in at least 20 years. It faces a confluence of factors that are undermining the city's post COVID recovery.
1) The collapse of the downtown office market. It's become apparent Fed workers won't soon if ever be returning to the offices like pre-2019. Unlike private sector dominated office markets like NYC, a large segment of DCs office market is composed of fed/fed adjacent workers doing back office tasks that don't require interactions with clients/investors/founders. When combined with strong unions/civil service protections getting federal workers into the office for more than a couple days a pay period is unlikely. Also unlike other big urban cities, DC lacks much of startup culture to fill demand. But some measures DC now has the weakest major office market in the country. Even the beleaguered SF market is showing signs of life as AI startups lease space.
In theory, DC could convert some of the space to housing. But, that has been a painfully slow process. There are only like 3 or 4 actually U/C with less than 1,000 units. DC's landscrapers with their deep floorplans don't make for easy conversions. 2) Interest rates have killed off new market rate housing. Closely related to the conversion issue, high interest rates have basically killed multi-family housing for the time being. This makes it hard to finance downtown conversions and projects in the neighborhoods are basically on hold for the time being sapping the energy sense of progress that comes from new construction. A look a DC zoning commission actions recently is basically a series of developers seeking extensions on their approvals. The McDonalds bought back in location in NoMa that had been sold for high density housing, etc. 3) Crime (and fears of crime). Earlier in the pandemic it could be said, Downtown was suffering but the neighborhoods are doing ok. But, the rise in crime is driving business/residents away from areas like Shaw, U Street, H Street, Petworth. If muggings, carjackings, shootings, general COL stuff are brought under contract it is very possible will see middle class leaving/avoiding many areas of the city. More than likely rather an massive exodes, it will be a slow bleed as apartment dwellers avoid the District for Arlington, and young professionals that previously would have considered buying in the District, just look at the suburbs. 4) The uncertainty over the Capital One Arena. The move to NoVa isn't a done deal. It's very possible the teams stay in Cap One when all is said in done. But, in the short term that basically leaves a huge uncertainty hanging over Galley Place. Who is going to want to invest in a new restaurant/retail with so much uncertainty about what the area will look like in 5 years? 5) Metro/local government fiscal crunch. Metro is facing either massive service cuts or a massive increase in local government subsidy. When combined with the ending of COVID relief funds, declining office tax revenues and other demands for new spending on policing/social services that could create a challenging mix of tax increases or other cuts in governments services.
I have been more glass half empty person recently on DC's outlook. I would like to see some rebound is order after a horrible 2023. But, the factors outlined above do have me worried. For many years, DC benefits from a virtuous circle of growth as a rising population and falling crime attracted more residents/visitors to the District. It's possible we now enter a multi-year vicious cycle of suburban flight and urban decay. Or more probably a Baltimore style post-2015 style stagnation.
What do others think about DC's trajectory over the next year or so. Will it end 2024 in a stronger place than it is starting off at?
I think 2024 is off to a great start in regards to these issues.
US census has DC & the metro among the top growing area July 2022 - July 2023 (July 2023-July 2024 should be much strong and may catapult the DC area into the top 5 of people added . Caps/Wizards seem unlikely to go to VA as originally presented. Crime is falling and Secure DC just passed with specifically gallery place becoming a special zone of law enforcement and stiffer penalties for metro fare evasion (in addition to the new gates)
Metro is hitting record weekend ridership, metro continues to hit post pandemic weekday highs.
Downtown leads the nation by a large margin in conversions from office to residential.
What do others think about DC's trajectory over the next year or so. Will it end 2024 in a stronger place than it is starting off at?
I think the good parts of DC will stay good - upper Northwest, DuPont Circle, Georgetown, the Mall, City Center, the Wharf, etc.
However, I don't know about the areas with high crime on the east. I hope they're getting better.
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