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Old 03-26-2017, 09:34 AM
 
Location: Upstate NY/NJ
3,058 posts, read 3,834,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
I know what you are saying and I'm not saying that it is "driven" by retirees, but that it is a demographic that can't be overlooked in terms of those moving. https://www.google.com/amp/amp.timei...3Fsource%3Ddam

Other demographics may also play a part, such as a higher Black percentage, as the Black median age tends to be lower. You do have families to these counties as well.

With Travis County(Austin) and Denver(which really isn't Sun Belt), they have been magnets for a while and with Austin, it doesn't hurt to have one of the biggest universities in the country in the city.
I'd like to see 1% or even 0.5% growth year over year to be sustainable. I see the difference where I live of what -0.5% does to the economy and feel of the area. Less people investing around here. Huge tax burdens and still have unmaintained roadways, potholes, broken up sidewalks, etc. The tax burden being put on fewer and fewer people means that it goes up even higher on the few that remain. So then those people eventually leave.

I hope something can be done to reverse this. I agree with you on consolidation of towns, schools, etc. NJ has 566 municipalities which is way too many and NY is similar, with towns and villages that could be consolidated easily. It doesn't mean the history of your village or borough goes away.
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Old 03-26-2017, 09:51 AM
 
93,884 posts, read 124,609,502 times
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Originally Posted by VintageSunlight View Post
I'd like to see 1% or even 0.5% growth year over year to be sustainable. I see the difference where I live of what -0.5% does to the economy and feel of the area. Less people investing around here. Huge tax burdens and still have unmaintained roadways, potholes, broken up sidewalks, etc. The tax burden being put on fewer and fewer people means that it goes up even higher on the few that remain. So then those people eventually leave.

I hope something can be done to reverse this. I agree with you on consolidation of towns, schools, etc. NJ has 566 municipalities which is way too many and NY is similar, with towns and villages that could be consolidated easily. It doesn't mean the history of your village or borough goes away.
Exactly, as people have to start looking at structural aspects of government and not just what party a politician is affiliated with. As mentioned in another thread though, a lot of people have their "identity" tied up and tangled up in things like their village, school district and even local law enforcement agency. So, that can be as much of a hinderance and is likened to a NIMBY attitude that hinders projects/economic development(I.e.-the Inland Port here in the Syracuse area).

I also think in stead of just looking at lowering taxes in order to lure big companies, our economy really needs to make it easier for people to start businesses. I think there needs to be more of a push for people to start businesses along with the attitude of looking for a job. There are needs that could be filled, but talent is either wasted away or is hesitant to step out to form a business to fill that need. I think this is the case as a whole, but especially in NY or other states in the Northeast.

However, I believe that is partially why cities in the region are open to bringing immigrants/refugees in, as they may or even tend to be more likely to form a business relative to their size. So, some may be an example of those filling a need through a business.
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Old 03-26-2017, 02:46 PM
 
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This is part of the reason moving upstate scares me - there seems to be a consistent lack of growth or negative growth and a lot of it has to do with property taxes, which are just insanely high all over the state of NY. People are being tempted by the idea of buying a new construction home in North Carolina with property taxes around 2500-3000 a year - its a big deal.
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Old 03-26-2017, 02:57 PM
 
93,884 posts, read 124,609,502 times
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Originally Posted by JmacNY View Post
This is part of the reason moving upstate scares me - there seems to be a consistent lack of growth or negative growth and a lot of it has to do with property taxes, which are just insanely high all over the state of NY. People are being tempted by the idea of buying a new construction home in North Carolina with property taxes around 2500-3000 a year - its a big deal.
Again, be cautious of these estimates, as Onondaga County actually has slight growth between 2010-2015, then had a random decline that was more than the previous population growth. So, keep that in mind.

I've already gone over the home cost aspect a bunch of times. So, I'll leave that alone. You can view this if you wish: https://www.nar.realtor/topics/metro...-affordability

I suggest looking at these threads for more information and interesting takes: https://www.city-data.com/forum/city-...estimates.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/city-...live-well.html
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Old 03-26-2017, 07:54 PM
 
Location: Upstate NY/NJ
3,058 posts, read 3,834,047 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JmacNY View Post
This is part of the reason moving upstate scares me - there seems to be a consistent lack of growth or negative growth and a lot of it has to do with property taxes, which are just insanely high all over the state of NY. People are being tempted by the idea of buying a new construction home in North Carolina with property taxes around 2500-3000 a year - its a big deal.
There's no way to deny this. I think Upstate NY can be good for a subset of people- families with kids who want good schools, especially. Kids enjoy snow too. Also, people in the healthcare field can do well I believe. And people with family nearby, especially people with family in the NYC area- its not a long trip and it is scenic to drive up. The last group I'd say are avid outdoorsmen- NYS has some of the finest and largest areas of natural areas east of the Mississippi. Lakes are much nicer upstate than in Sunbelt area, which are usually man-made and not that attractive. On the flip side, of course you might live closer to the ocean depending on where you live in the Sunbelt areas.

For single people or DINKS, who especially don't want to support the high tax base for school taxes if they have no kids, I think the area makes less sense. I'd also add those that are adverse to cloudy / snowy climates, like people with SAD, etc. If you want zero house maintenance, like shoveling, fixing the roof, and just those general things that you have to do to upkeep an older house, you'll have a lot more newer, more modern maintenance-free living to pick from in Sunbelt regions.

These are generalizations but I think they ring true for the most part.
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Old 03-27-2017, 05:11 AM
 
93,884 posts, read 124,609,502 times
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Originally Posted by VintageSunlight View Post
There's no way to deny this. I think Upstate NY can be good for a subset of people- families with kids who want good schools, especially. Kids enjoy snow too. Also, people in the healthcare field can do well I believe. And people with family nearby, especially people with family in the NYC area- its not a long trip and it is scenic to drive up. The last group I'd say are avid outdoorsmen- NYS has some of the finest and largest areas of natural areas east of the Mississippi. Lakes are much nicer upstate than in Sunbelt area, which are usually man-made and not that attractive. On the flip side, of course you might live closer to the ocean depending on where you live in the Sunbelt areas.

For single people or DINKS, who especially don't want to support the high tax base for school taxes if they have no kids, I think the area makes less sense. I'd also add those that are adverse to cloudy / snowy climates, like people with SAD, etc. If you want zero house maintenance, like shoveling, fixing the roof, and just those general things that you have to do to upkeep an older house, you'll have a lot more newer, more modern maintenance-free living to pick from in Sunbelt regions.

These are generalizations but I think they ring true for the most part.
I would add that people also want housing they can afford relative to their budget as well. This kind of goes back to the second thread I posted above, but can change given said person's income that they bring via retirement/savings and the factors you mentioned as well. Meaning, someone from Downstate is likely to have more leverage in terms of housing versus someone from Upstate, but stage of life is another factor.

Here is some recent housing information: Available Articles | New York home sales decline nearly 7 percent in February; CNY numbers mixed
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