China fails to force women to bear children (country, place, train)
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China is in trouble after their one-child years, and it made it onto the front page of the NYT. They may have ignored the statistics showing that the more you educate women, the less likely they are to want to spend their whole lives raising children.
China Told Women to Have Babies, but Its Population Shrank Again
The shrinking and aging population worries Beijing because it is draining China of the working-age people it needs to power the economy. The demographic crisis, which arrived sooner than nearly anyone expected, is already straining weak and underfunded health care and pension systems.
China hastened the problem with its one-child policy, which helped to push the birthrate down over several decades. The rule also created generations of young only-child girls who were given an education and employment opportunities — a cohort that turned into empowered women who now view Beijing’s efforts as pushing them back into the home.
Ms. Chen’s parents sometimes get so upset at her decision not to have children that they cry on the phone. “We are no longer your parents,” they tell her. https://jacklimpert.com/2024/01/chin...-shrank-again/
China's despotic leadership has shown that it is more than willing to trample human rights. The headlines now might be: "Fails to Coerce Wome to Bear Children.
Lets hope we never see a headline about actually forcing them. I wouldn't put it past the current regime.
Not to mention that during the one-child era many Chinese females were aborted or killed, so now there is a large imbalance between the sexes. 104.61 males to 100 female. May not sound like much, but it is.
India is in the same boat with 106.516 males to 100 females, yet their population is still growing, for now.
In the USA ( and Germany ) it is the opposite, 97 males to 100 females. Japan 95.38 males to 100 females.
But maybe looking at the age distributions those numbers are not so bad. The real issue is in the ratio of men to women in the child-bearing ages.
Not to be fooled by Qatar with 266 males per 100 females as that is due to a huge number of temporary foreign male workers.
It's not just that girls born to a one child family got educated and don't want kids because they want careers and self-fulfillment. It's also that many of the ones who are from families where they paid the fines or had a rural hukou so they could have a boy are expected by their families to contribute to their brother's education, career, marriage, and family, to the detriment of their own aspirations. I know so many young women in China who are expected by their families to help their brother with a down payment on a house or car. I know a few who were encouraged to go to school, learn English, and marry a "rich foreigner" in part so that the son could more easily study abroad. That sort of stuff tends to create a deep sense of cynicism in a person...
It shrank because there are more old people than kids due to higher birth rates before and during the second world war.
The less educated youths continue to marry and have at least 1 child. The drop is in the cities and among college educated couples.
It is natural for the birth rate decreases when a place becomes richer. So China will have lower birth rates than South and Southeast Asia, becoming the 2nd most poupulous country instead of 1st while remaining in the top 2nd in GDP for the near future.
Right now Mainland China still has many young people in the labour force unlike Japan, HK and Taiwan.
It shrank because there are more old people than kids due to higher birth rates before and during the second world war.
The less educated youths continue to marry and have at least 1 child. The drop is in the cities and among college educated couples.
It is natural for the birth rate decreases when a place becomes richer. So China will have lower birth rates than South and Southeast Asia, becoming the 2nd most poupulous country instead of 1st while remaining in the top 2nd in GDP for the near future.
Right now Mainland China still has many young people in the labour force unlike Japan, HK and Taiwan.
Today, there are 984M people, age 15 - 64 years in China.
In 2050 there will be 767M. LINK
That's a drop of 217M working age people in 27 years. It's gonna hurt. The population will never recover.
Today, there are 984M people, age 15 - 64 years in China.
In 2050 there will be 767M. LINK
That's a drop of 217M working age people in 27 years. It's gonna hurt. The population will never recover.
One misleading part of this chart is that the drop will happen in 2027.
However, the retirement age in China is not 64 years, it is actually between 50 and 60 years. That means China has passed the 2027 peak in the chart and the number of workers is dropping rapidly right now.
This problem can be solved by raising the retirement age and or not allowing age discrimination when recruiting. You will see more older workers as in Japan and HK. In the cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou we shall still see many young people as they offer the highest salaries attracting youths from all parts of China.
This problem can be solved by raising the retirement age and or not allowing age discrimination when recruiting.
1. Increasing the retirement age is extremely unpopular and is likely to further depress the birth rate as most couples are dependent on their grandparents to help taking care of their kids. Chinese work hours are not compatible with raising kids, so someone needs to stop working to take care of the kid.
2. Not allowing age discrimination is easier said than done.
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