A Different Perspective (houses, layoffs, to buy)

[Threerun]

Originally Posted by NDak15

Absolutely! It's surprising to me how people who managed to afford to establish themselves years ago don't understand how things are now. Nowadays all you have to do is look at the homeless population in Misdoula or Bozeman. I'm sure many of them came because they thought it was paradise. Now it's a nightmare. While I'm not suggesting a person would automatically end up homeless, it's a grim illustration of reality. If you want to move to Montana you need to be realistic, have a plan, and yes, be able to afford it.

'Nightmare' is a bit of a stretch. Affordability and housing availability is an issue in many places. When my wife and I worked in Frederick MD and were looking for our first house we could not afford anything other than a townhouse IF we wanted to stay in Frederick MD. We moved to WV and commuted an hour each way, often more with traffic, in order to afford a home. My neighbor took the MARC train into DC which took almost 2 hours each way.

Montana is not an outlier of unaffordability.

[NDak15]

Originally Posted by Threerun

'Nightmare' is a bit of a stretch. Affordability and housing availability is an issue in many places. When my wife and I worked in Frederick MD and were looking for our first house we could not afford anything other than a townhouse IF we wanted to stay in Frederick MD. We moved to WV and commuted an hour each way, often more with traffic, in order to afford a home. My neighbor took the MARC train into DC which took almost 2 hours each way.

Montana is not an outlier of unaffordability.

I don't know about you but being homeless would be a nightmare scenario for me. No Montana is not an outlier. However, with the scenario you mentioned there was a solution (maybe not ideal) as the area has infrastructure and public transportation to accommodate that. As you know, Montana has wide open spaces and isn't exactly commuter friendly. Sure, it's possible, but I'd say much less ideal than the DC area. I've never lived in the DC area, so correct me if I'm wrong, but are people moving there because it's pretty and they fell in live with it on vacation? Or is it due to jobs? I'm not sure this is an apples to apples comparison.

[Threerun]

Originally Posted by NDak15

I don't know about you but being homeless would be a nightmare scenario for me. No Montana is not an outlier. However, with the scenario you mentioned there was a solution (maybe not ideal) as the area has infrastructure and public transportation to accommodate that. As you know, Montana has wide open spaces and isn't exactly commuter friendly. Sure, it's possible, but I'd say much less ideal than the DC area. I've never lived in the DC area, so correct me if I'm wrong, but are people moving there because it's pretty and they fell in live with it on vacation? Or is it due to jobs? I'm not sure this is an apples to apples comparison.

Oh I see what you're saying. I thought you meant living in Montana is nightmarish (which is kind of your mo).

You think all the homeless are transplants that moved here for the scenery and then fell on hard times? I don't think so. Maybe some. I don't know the stats on their migration but I do know that there are a lot of homeless impacted by mental health and drug abuse issues. I would suspect a lot are just people from here that couldn't hold a job due to mental illness and/or became drug broke. There are plenty of homegrown folks that suffer that fate. I'm sure some moved here and have now been priced out of housing but to what proportion I don't know. I do know this- if I was 'working poor' I would be figuring out how to get out of Bozeman or Missoula as fast as I could to a more affordable area.

Most people in the Eastern Panhandle of WV commute outside of WV to work via personal vehicle. There is only a single MARC train leaving from Harpers Ferry WV to Union Station DC and it's once in the a.m., once in the PM (at least it was). Actually migration to the cities (prior to COVID) was driven by millennials that wanted to be in large urban areas, so yes it is 'desirable' in its own way. They wanted to be close to work, nightlife, shops, parks and cultural spots.

However my point is 'most' people can find more affordable living outside of Bozeman and Missoula but they would have to commute. My boss lives in Three Forks and commutes to Helena for work.

[NDak15]

Originally Posted by Threerun

Oh I see what you're saying. I thought you meant living in Montana is nightmarish (which is kind of your mo).

You think all the homeless are transplants that moved here for the scenery and then fell on hard times? I don't think so. Maybe some. I don't know the stats on their migration but I do know that there are a lot of homeless impacted by mental health and drug abuse issues. I would suspect a lot are just people from here that couldn't hold a job due to mental illness and/or became drug broke. There are plenty of homegrown folks that suffer that fate. I'm sure some moved here and have now been priced out of housing but to what proportion I don't know. I do know this- if I was 'working poor' I would be figuring out how to get out of Bozeman or Missoula as fast as I could to a more affordable area.

Most people in the Eastern Panhandle of WV commute outside of WV to work via personal vehicle. There is only a single MARC train leaving from Harpers Ferry WV to Union Station DC and it's once in the a.m., once in the PM (at least it was). Actually migration to the cities (prior to COVID) was driven by millennials that wanted to be in large urban areas, so yes it is 'desirable' in its own way. They wanted to be close to work, nightlife, shops, parks and cultural spots.

However my point is 'most' people can find more affordable living outside of Bozeman and Missoula but they would have to commute. My boss lives in Three Forks and commutes to Helena for work.

Living in Montana isn't a nightmare (unless maybe you lived on a reservation). Not my MO either. Yes, I'm sure there are plenty if born amd bred Montanans who are homeless there as well as those with addiction problems (sadly an issue everywhere). Seeing as how this is a relocation forum, it's worth mentioning that moving there is a very dumb idea if you are of limited income. Sadly limited income in those cities is anything less than six figures it seems. Less if you are content to rent for the rest of eternity. Commuting from Three Forks to Helena sounds like hell. Is Helena unaffordable now too?

[Threerun]

Originally Posted by NDak15

Living in Montana isn't a nightmare (unless maybe you lived on a reservation). Not my MO either. Yes, I'm sure there are plenty if born amd bred Montanans who are homeless there as well as those with addiction problems (sadly an issue everywhere). Seeing as how this is a relocation forum, it's worth mentioning that moving there is a very dumb idea if you are of limited income. Sadly limited income in those cities is anything less than six figures it seems. Less if you are content to rent for the rest of eternity. Commuting from Three Forks to Helena sounds like hell. Is Helena unaffordable now too?

Helena, in my opinion, is unaffordable. If you take Census data from 2022 the average home is $331,700 and the average household income is $64,798. Assuming FHA with 5% down (1.5% more than required) at current rates, insurance and PMI = average mortgage pymt- $2,600 p/mo. Doing a DTI calculation that's 48% of the average gross monthly income. That's well above the back end recommended max DTI of 36%

If I were to buy my house today based on its current value, assuming 20% down and a 30yr mortgage at current rates, our back end DTI would be 31% which would be too tight for my comfort. We've never been leveraged more than 26% on any mortgage to income ratio.

My boss has 5 kids, 4 still at home. He has some family in Three Forks so he saves on daycare costs and he needed a bigger house, and Three Forks (at the time) made sense and was more affordable than Bozeman (and Helena). I look at some of the larger homes in Helena and they're going from $750K and on upward.

I just read an article about homelessness in Bozeman and one thing popped out- it is mostly native Montanans that can't absorb the increases in rents. They're working homeless.

[NDak15]

Originally Posted by Threerun

Helena, in my opinion, is unaffordable. If you take Census data from 2022 the average home is $331,700 and the average household income is $64,798. Assuming FHA with 5% down (1.5% more than required) at current rates, insurance and PMI = average mortgage pymt- $2,600 p/mo. Doing a DTI calculation that's 48% of the average gross monthly income. That's well above the back end recommended max DTI of 36%

If I were to buy my house today based on its current value, assuming 20% down and a 30yr mortgage at current rates, our back end DTI would be 31% which would be too tight for my comfort. We've never been leveraged more than 26% on any mortgage to income ratio.

My boss has 5 kids, 4 still at home. He has some family in Three Forks so he saves on daycare costs and he needed a bigger house, and Three Forks (at the time) made sense and was more affordable than Bozeman (and Helena). I look at some of the larger homes in Helena and they're going from $750K and on upward.

I just read an article about homelessness in Bozeman and one thing popped out- it is mostly native Montanans that can't absorb the increases in rents. They're working homeless.

I wonder how college students survive in Bozeman or Missoula. I can't imagine there is housing on campus for all of them.

[Threerun]

Originally Posted by NDak15

I wonder how college students survive in Bozeman or Missoula. I can't imagine there is housing on campus for all of them.

On campus housing is tight.

My daughter has 2 roomates in a 2br apartment. Rent split 3 ways. She has a 529 plan that allows her to withdraw money for rent in an amount equal to on campus housing. Her tuition has been paid 100% on scholarship. She works as well, but it is tough. If we hadn't invested in our kids education over 20 years ago honestly I don't know how she could do it.

[NDak15]

Originally Posted by Threerun

On campus housing is tight.

My daughter has 2 roomates in a 2br apartment. Rent split 3 ways. She has a 529 plan that allows her to withdraw money for rent in an amount equal to on campus housing. Her tuition has been paid 100% on scholarship. She works as well, but it is tough. If we hadn't invested in our kids education over 20 years ago honestly I don't know how she could do it.

It would probably be impossible.

[Threerun]

Originally Posted by NDak15

It would probably be impossible.

Why do you think so many graduates are in debt out the wazoo?

[NDak15]

Originally Posted by Threerun

Why do you think so many graduates are in debt out the wazoo?

It's because without scholarships or or one hell of a savings only the wealthy can afford, people can't haven't been able to go to college without borrowing since about the mid 90s.