Johnson City Population Surging To New Levels (Kingsport, Bristol: best city, transplants)

[jjbradleynyc]

Johnson City is becoming a fast-growth city. The city is seeing 1,500 - 2,000 new residents added each year.

With a 2022 population sitting at roughly 72,514, the city grew modestly fast since 2010, adding roughly 7,900 people.

But by 2030, Johnson City could be at an eye-popping 82,000 people--on the low end forecast.

On the high end forecast, the city could see almost 90,000 in population by 2030.

https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/new...6eba5144a.html

If this growth continues throughout the decade of the 2030s, Johnson City could easily hit the 100,000 people mark by middle of the decade.

And some of the population growth is trickling into both Bristol and Kingsport. Both cities will benefit long term from this influx of new residents and growth.

[Serious Conversation]

As long as TN remains tax-friendly, this will continue.

If you're coming from outside the area, and expect a certain level of suburban amenities, Johnson City is the only option in the area that is "suburban nice." The VA, Ballad, and ETSU bring a level of transplants and diversity not seen anywhere else in the area.

When the area gets a nicer new dining or retail type option, they usually locate first in Johnson City, possibly Bristol, but never Kingsport.

It's kind of a virtuous cycle. People like Johnson City because it's already nice and want to move there. Those people are usually higher income or wealthier. That in turn begets more better businesses to pop up.

I live in Bristol. Honestly, I rarely go to Johnson City anymore. Bristol's dining and retail options are "good enough" most of the time, and I'm in Asheville probably 2/3 of the weekends, so I can get my "bigger city" stuff done there. From where I live, downtown JC is about 35-40 minutes.

The big issue for older people is going to be the medical care. As word gets out about how bad the medical care is, that's going to give a lot of people pause. Also, the lack of professional job options and pay for local employers is going to be a drag - people of working age aren't going to move here to make $.60 on the dollar of what they might make in Charlotte or Nashville.

[jjbradleynyc]

This is very true. And a huge component that's fueling the fast growth.

Johnson City is definitely at an advantage in northeast Tennessee overall, due to ETSU and the medical school. This is something that brings a level of amenities to JC that Bristol and Kingsport can't compete with.

Kingsport has become a lot more run down--all the while still growing population-wise. It's sort of an odd case. It's downtown has the best tri-city "bones," but pales in comparison to either JC or Bristol with amenities in the city and downtown like bars, restaurants and entertainment--overall.

Kingsport was arguably "the best city" in tri-cities in the 70s and 80s. But retail has fled the city, restaurants have fled, and the city's main retail strip, Stone Drive, is now littered with car washes, payday loans, car dealerships and discount stores.

There are gorgeous areas of Kingsport, and new residential subdivisions are being built--so progress is being made. But overall, it is lagging way behind JC and Bristol's overall growth--and Kingsport's perception and image have declined over the years.

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc

This is very true. And a huge component that's fueling the fast growth.

Johnson City is definitely at an advantage in northeast Tennessee overall, due to ETSU and the medical school. This is something that brings a level of amenities to JC that Bristol and Kingsport can't compete with.

Kingsport has become a lot more run down--all the while still growing population-wise. It's sort of an odd case. It's downtown has the best tri-city "bones," but pales in comparison to either JC or Bristol with amenities in the city and downtown like bars, restaurants and entertainment--overall.

Kingsport was arguably "the best city" in tri-cities in the 70s and 80s. But retail has fled the city, restaurants have fled, and the city's main retail strip, Stone Drive, is now littered with car washes, payday loans, car dealerships and discount stores.

There are gorgeous areas of Kingsport, and new residential subdivisions are being built--so progress is being made. But overall, it is lagging way behind JC and Bristol's overall growth--and Kingsport's perception and image have declined over the years.

Personally, I only see Johnson City growing meaningfully.

Like you said, Kingsport is so far behind that people don't consider it anymore for a lot of things. Other than Chop House and Riverfront (very occasionally, and in good weather), my girlfriend and I never go to Kingsport since I'm a Bristol resident. We never go to Kingsport for any kind of shopping.

Chop House is probably the best mainline steakhouse in the area. It has been for a couple of decades now. That's a minor draw. Riverfront has the river view during the warmer months if it isn't stinky outside.

I don't see anyone from out of the area who was considering Johnson City, but then was priced out or whatever, considering Kingsport because it's either "close enough or good enough." Let's face it - Kingsport is circling the drain with incompetent leadership and no hope of pulling itself out of the toilet.

Bristol is much smaller than either of the other two in terms of residents, but has The Pinnacle, the "two-state" benefits, the best movie theater in the area, State St., NASCAR, Country Music Museum, etc. With that said, as someone who splits time between Asheville and Bristol, Bristol to JC is two-thirds the haul as from the south side of JC to Asheville.

Moving to JC would cut out a lot of aggravation for me personally if I can't afford Asheville in this high price, high rate environment.

Johnson City has a lot of advantages. Unless its government does something very stupid to stunt growth, or one of the other cities pulls a magic rabbit out of their hats, it's in the driver's seat for the local economy and political leadership for the foreseeable future.

[jjbradleynyc]

Johnson City definitely has a huge advantage over both other cities, with the major university there, and the medical school.

From what I've heard, when people are priced out of JC for housing, they've looked to Kingsport and Bristol areas as options, since the commute to JC from either is in the 20-40 minute range-ish.

Kingsport's leadership in the past couple of decades has been pretty incompetent at best, when it comes to keeping Kingsport competitive with new jobs, new retail and new restaurants/bars locating to the city.

Also, Kingsport has a strong Hawkins County and Southwest Virginia bond. And I think this rural, highly religious, cultural connection is evident with the city limiting any "outsider" growth to the city, for the most part.

If you don't "go to church" in Kingsport, you are gonna be left out of anything happening in the city government, leadership, high level social circles and education. Very small town operations in that way. And it's a stubborn, insular attitude that limits new opportunity for the city.

One thing about Kingsport though, is that they live and die with Eastman, and would do backflips on the Holston River to get more growth from that pollution-making corporation--sadly.

And with Bristol, like you mentioned, they have succeeded with newer growth and development by embracing their tourism aspects of the city and region: Bristol Motor Speedway, Country Music Museum and now the Hard Rock casino.