TL metro added 68,585 residents from July 1st 2022 to July 1, 2023.

[testa50]

Originally Posted by cranberrysaus

A lot can happen in three decades. I think it's premature to assume that we'll keep growing like this and Chicago will keep stagnating forever.

By that point, Atlanta might have some very real competition from some of the upstarts like Phoenix and Tampa.

[chiatldal]

Originally Posted by testa50

By that point, Atlanta might have some very real competition from some of the upstarts like Phoenix and Tampa.

If there anywhere to question continue growth it would be desert and Florida cities.

[chiatldal]

Originally Posted by cranberrysaus

A lot can happen in three decades. I think it's premature to assume that we'll keep growing like this and Chicago will keep stagnating forever.

Heck it's premature to assume if Atlanta growth rate changes would just means slow down, Atlanta could speed up if where being that abstract. About "A lot can happen in three decades" That's why I just talked about if current trends.

but The ARC projection is 7.9 in 21 counties which not the full MSA. And CSA counties could also be added.

[testa50]

Originally Posted by chiatldal

If there anywhere to question continue growth it would be desert and Florida cities.

Maybe, maybe not. Those places are clearly where people want to go (in addition to Texas and the deep south). The question is whether the environment will make that growth impossibly expensive or limited in some way.

It's definitely possible, but I think it's going to be less dramatic than people think. Super high insurance premiums in Florida turning it into basically a high-cost northeastern state.

The desert is an interesting case because it could be quite sustainable from an electricity perspective (solar is generated precisely when demand for energy peaks), but not a water perspective. My guess is the water shortages never really bite Phoenix in the ass like they probably should. The writing seems to be on the wall: if water scarcity were a big deal, Phoenix would have much stricter conservation measures in effect. But they use a lot more water per capita than, say, Atlanta. It's ass backwards, but I'm just not compelled by any argument that people in Phoenix literally have their taps run dry. This is America; growth always prevails.

For all the talk the midwest gets about climate refugees moving there, it's not a particularly sustainable place to live given the current technology. Energy demand peaks in winter, when solar is almost non-existent, meaning it's gonna be insanely hard to transition from fossil fuels. Besides that, it generally requires more energy to heat homes than to cool them. Geothermal is the answer, but it's hard to retrofit over giant areas.

[waronxmas]

Originally Posted by testa50

Maybe, maybe not. Those places are clearly where people want to go (in addition to Texas and the deep south). The question is whether the environment will make that growth impossibly expensive or limited in some way.

It's definitely possible, but I think it's going to be less dramatic than people think. Super high insurance premiums in Florida turning it into basically a high-cost northeastern state.

The desert is an interesting case because it could be quite sustainable from an electricity perspective (solar is generated precisely when demand for energy peaks), but not a water perspective. My guess is the water shortages never really bite Phoenix in the ass like they probably should. The writing seems to be on the wall: if water scarcity were a big deal, Phoenix would have much stricter conservation measures in effect. But they use a lot more water per capita than, say, Atlanta. It's ass backwards, but I'm just not compelled by any argument that people in Phoenix literally have their taps run dry. This is America; growth always prevails.

For all the talk the midwest gets about climate refugees moving there, it's not a particularly sustainable place to live given the current technology. Energy demand peaks in winter, when solar is almost non-existent, meaning it's gonna be insanely hard to transition from fossil fuels. Besides that, it generally requires more energy to heat homes than to cool them. Geothermal is the answer, but it's hard to retrofit over giant areas.

I think the big one to watch will be Florida. They have multiple natural threats that are increasing (hurricanes, flooding of the aquafer with salt water) as well as more economic related ones like the bottom falling out of the home insurance market. It's more realistic that people would move more inland to the South than an entirely different region like the Midwest as most who are up on this topic think is likely (it's not likely at all).

We already have evidence both direct and subtle. Look at the migration pattern of Katrina refugees that moved here and a sharp increase in educated non-retired people from Florida moving here and to the Carolinas. We obviously won't be able to take on all of it, but it's likely we get a significant portion over the next few decades. That's still hundreds of thousands to millions of people.

Honestly, the only thing I am hearing around Atlanta's population growth juggernaut slowing down significantly is just wishful thinking. Half a century of data tells a different story.

[JC251]

Originally Posted by cdw1084

No one knows what the future hold for these cities, but in Atlanta's defense, it could possibly add Hall and Jackson Counties to its MSA. Those counties, esp Hall, is very close to the 25% threshold. Last time I checked, Hall was at 22%. That's another 300,000 plus in two fast growing counties.

Where did you find this information? I was curious about how close they were, Hall and Jackson will probably both be added by 2030.

[Mississippi Alabama Line]

Originally Posted by cranberrysaus

A lot can happen in three decades. I think it's premature to assume that we'll keep growing like this and Chicago will keep stagnating forever.

The only thing I can see that is constraining Atlanta's growth is the road system. If they'd re-work some of the interstate interchanges around town to go along with the expanse of lanes, it would explode even more.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Mississippi Alabama Line

The only thing I can see that is constraining Atlanta's growth is the road system. If they'd re-work some of the interstate interchanges around town to go along with the expanse of lanes, it would explode even more.

Lol. There seems to be many metro Atlantans and North Georgians who wish that the lack of a more extensive metropolitan arterial road system had constrained Atlanta’s metropolitan and regional growth much more.

That’s because the lack of a more extensive metropolitan road system does not seem to have constrained Atlanta’s metropolitan and regional growth as much as one understandably might would think that it would.

Even without the more extensive metropolitan arterial road system seen in other large major Sun Belt metropolitan regions (like Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, etc), Atlanta’s MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) population has still grown to more than 6.3 million residents, while Atlanta’s CSA (Combined Statistical Area) population has still grown to more than 7.2 million residents.

The I-285/GA400, I-20/I-285 East and I-20/I-285 West interchanges are being reconstructed to handle the increasing amount of traffic that is continuing to be generated by the growing population.

Though, it seems to have been the massive “Freeing-the-Freeways” reconstruction of the 1980’s that (along with the massive growth and expansion of Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta Airport) seemed to have played a leading role in helping to generate the massive growth that the greater Atlanta region has been experiencing since 1990.

(The massive “Freeing-the-Freeways” reconstruction project of the 1980’s included the major widenings and expansions of Interstates 75 and 85 inside the I-285 Perimeter and north of the I-285 Perimeter, the widening and expansion of I-75 south of the I-285 Perimeter, the widening of the I-285 Perimeter from 4 lanes to 8-10 lanes; and the total redesign, reconstruction and expansion of the I-20/I-75/I-85, I-75/I-285 South, I-85/I-285 Southwest, I-85/I-285 Northeast (Spaghetti Junction) and I-75/I-285 Northwest (Cobb Cloverleaf) interchanges along with an earlier redesign of the I-20/I-285 East interchange and the construction of the I-675 roadway.)

While the I-285/GA400 and I-20/I-285 West interchanges should have been reconstructed decades ago, the I-20/I-285 East interchange should have been reconstructed properly decades ago, and the I-85/GA400 interchange should have been constructed properly decades ago; and while there seems to be a very strong argument that a roadway like the Outer Perimeter should have been built decades ago; the I-20/I-75/I-85, I-75/I-285 Northwest, I-85/I-285 Southwest and I-85/I-285 Northeast interchanges were massively reconstructed and expanded along with the I-75, I-85, I-20 and I-285 roadways and the population still grew so explosively fast so as to seemingly make those significant road improvements and expansions appear to be wholly ineffective.

[cranberrysaus]

What should've happened 15-20 years ago was the development of a Metra style commuter rail system.

[SEAandATL]

Originally Posted by cranberrysaus

What should've happened 15-20 years ago was the development of a Metra style commuter rail system.

It's probably/likely never going to happen now after what happened with ClayCo.