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The future is not bright. The US will have a second lockdown too, and probably a third, before this is over.
It will be a long haul, I think. Since there is no coherent national plan and the states don't agree on what to do, people will just cross borders and infect each other. So, I think the only way to go is to slowly let people get infected. You open up one sector, like medical procedures, and give it a couple of weeks to see what that infection surge does, get through that surge, then open the next sector, rinse, lather, and repeat.
The big problem will be tourism infections when people start coming here from other states if they open the state parks.
I think restaurants and bars will be in for a world of hurt for a long time. The only way to not have that happen is to test everyone which isn't going to happen. Businesses can open all they want. It doesn't mean people will go and eat there.
In Albany, the restaurants that are still "open" are those that have to-go orders. One place downtown, has a table outside blocking the front door and bring the to-go orders out to the customers to take home. That's the only things that's keeping it open, but they seem to be doing okay. Most fast food restaurants that have a drive-thru seem to be open. Again, to-go orders only. It appears that most of the drive-thrus have fewer cars lined up than usual.
Most of the buffet-style and strictly indoor serving restaurants appear to be completely closed. Bars, as mentioned, are closed and having to take a loss. If people want a beer, they buy it from food markets to take home. There's been some talk about when restaurants reopen, that they will need to maintain social distancing with every other table or booth being closed for seating, until there's an all-clear signal that it's safe enough to return to business as usual. It could take quite a while to get things back to normal because people are still going to be a bit jumpy.
Oddly, there seems to be a lot of people in Albany supermarkets that don't have protective face masks, and don't practice social distancing but continue to crowd in among other people. As such, even though Linn and Benton counties have fairly low numbers of infection and deaths, those numbers are still rising. All in all, Oregon has been pretty lucky with (currently) a statewide total of 2,253 infections and 87 deaths. https://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/ops...f628fb85bfe8de
.......You do realize that it isn't an all or nothing, right? You can open some things and not others?
Yes, I do.
Please open a few things at a time in Portland, where the infection is already widespread, and see how it goes there. Do not open things up for the infected population to move out into the countryside, spreading their virus wherever they go.
Please open a few things at a time in Portland, where the infection is already widespread, and see how it goes there. Do not open things up for the infected population to move out into the countryside, spreading their virus wherever they go.
Some of the rural counties want to open up. Her proposal was that they had to submit a request to open up showing they had PPE and available hospital beds. She knows if they open they will get cases. That is why they have to show they can handle it. I also think it is why she won't reopen state parks anytime soon.
I think most of the rural counties will choose to stay closed, especially on the coast or places where they have a large tourist attraction. I don't see campgrounds opening up anytime soon, but if a local hairdresser wants to open up Wheeler for the locals? I just don't see a huge issue with that. I don't think any people in the valley are going to drive to Wheeler for a haircut.
There are the local businesses that are used by the locals, and then there are tourism businesses which is what you are talking about. I just don't see an issue with the local businesses that serve the local population be opened up for their use in those counties where there aren't any or are hardly any cases. Tourism, which you and I agree on, should not be opened up.
Some of the rural counties want to open up. Her proposal was that they had to submit a request to open up showing they had PPE and available hospital beds. She knows if they open they will get cases. That is why they have to show they can handle it. I also think it is why she won't reopen state parks anytime soon.
I think most of the rural counties will choose to stay closed, especially on the coast or places where they have a large tourist attraction. I don't see campgrounds opening up anytime soon, but if a local hairdresser wants to open up Wheeler for the locals? I just don't see a huge issue with that. I don't think any people in the valley are going to drive to Wheeler for a haircut.
There are the local businesses that are used by the locals, and then there are tourism businesses which is what you are talking about. I just don't see an issue with the local businesses that serve the local population be opened up for their use in those counties where there aren't any or are hardly any cases. Tourism, which you and I agree on, should not be opened up.
My barber on the coast has told me that tourism is an important part of his business. I'm not sure how much of his business is tourism, but he says he wouldn't be able to stay in business with just locals. I guess that is not surprising being on the coast. But it does show that people do get their hair cut while traveling.
Again it is not realistic to believe that Wheeler County doesn't have COVID-19 cases. The testing in Wheeler County is totally inadequate to find anything. If the county opens up, there will be community spread, in Wheeler County and other rural counties.
My barber on the coast has told me that tourism is an important part of his business. I'm not sure how much of his business is tourism, but he says he wouldn't be able to stay in business with just locals. I guess that is not surprising being on the coast. But it does show that people do get their hair cut while traveling.
Again it is not realistic to believe that Wheeler County doesn't have COVID-19 cases. The testing in Wheeler County is totally inadequate to find anything. If the county opens up, there will be community spread, in Wheeler County and other rural counties.
That's interesting about the barber. I wouldn't have guessed that a business like that couldn't make it on the locals.
Of course, there will be spread when they open things up. There is no national policy so there is no way to stop the spread. All you can do is control the spread. So we all either wait for the feds to create a national policy that all states follow or we accept the lack of leadership at the national level which means each state has to systematically control the spread. Without a national policy, there is no stopping the spread. There just isn't.
Waiting for a vaccine isn't a reasonable plan, in my opinion, and there is no desire on the national level to get an organized system of testing done. So, in my opinion, the best plan B is you slowly open an industry, let the community spread happen so that people can get treatment, and when the curve goes down, move on to the next industry. Tourism should be one of the last things to open just like arenas and theaters.
That's interesting about the barber. I wouldn't have guessed that a business like that couldn't make it on the locals.
Of course, there will be spread when they open things up. There is no national policy so there is no way to stop the spread. All you can do is control the spread. So we all either wait for the feds to create a national policy that all states follow or we accept the lack of leadership at the national level which means each state has to systematically control the spread. Without a national policy, there is no stopping the spread. There just isn't.
Waiting for a vaccine isn't a reasonable plan, in my opinion, and there is no desire on the national level to get an organized system of testing done. So, in my opinion, the best plan B is you slowly open an industry, let the community spread happen so that people can get treatment, and when the curve goes down, move on to the next industry. Tourism should be one of the last things to open just like arenas and theaters.
What do you think is a realistic path forward?
I tend to agree with you in terms of what is realistic for America especially in today's political climate. With the president already talking about opening things back up nationally, its simply the reality of the situation we're dealing with here and now. Things will open and there's no stopping it. Oregon will begin in the hospitals per the governor's announcement. WA, on the other hand, is beginning with construction. CA just re-opened beaches during their current heatwave. So this is happening whether we like it or not.
I find a number of of other options implausible. One of them is to keep businesses closed indefinitely until some cure come along much later. That will literally crush our economy as it already is in part. Unlike Taiwan who was able to keep businesses open using proper methods of protection early on, we have not. Our current 'shelter in place' band-aid attempt to flatten the curve was never established as a long-term solution to begin with. That model is entirely unsustainable as a society for the long run. Businesses must and will open back up, bottom line. That is, of course, those which haven't already been ruined by the closures.
Yes, more people will contract the virus, just like every other virus. It will run its course. Some will take more precautions than others due both to our culture (rugged individualism, I did it my way) and lack of cohesive leadership at the national level. Even if the president tried to make national proclamations, many Americans simply do not trust his judgement. All one has to do is look at the track record and statements made thus far. America is not going to listen like other countries do to their leadership, unfortunately.
The only plausible path forward is to begin opening things up, one by one. From that point, reassessments will be made at the state level and courses of actions will be taken in this ad hoc fashion, for better or worse. State leadership will have to set the bar and laws in each case. Some will be appear more draconian than others.
Derek
Last edited by MtnSurfer; 04-26-2020 at 04:31 PM..
I was talking to a senior citizen from Grants Pass today. She told about a woman who tested positive who is refusing to self-quarantine. Nobody has done any contact tracing on her, because the county doesn't have any money. The woman also drove north to Douglas County to play bridge, and nobody knows who she was in contact with. As long as there are people like that, we have a serious problem.
That's interesting about the barber. I wouldn't have guessed that a business like that couldn't make it on the locals.
Of course, there will be spread when they open things up. There is no national policy so there is no way to stop the spread. All you can do is control the spread. So we all either wait for the feds to create a national policy that all states follow or we accept the lack of leadership at the national level which means each state has to systematically control the spread. Without a national policy, there is no stopping the spread. There just isn't.
Waiting for a vaccine isn't a reasonable plan, in my opinion, and there is no desire on the national level to get an organized system of testing done. So, in my opinion, the best plan B is you slowly open an industry, let the community spread happen so that people can get treatment, and when the curve goes down, move on to the next industry. Tourism should be one of the last things to open just like arenas and theaters.
What do you think is a realistic path forward?
If it were up to me, it would be to reopen when there are no new cases. But at very least follow Trump's three-phase reopening plan. Which would include a 14 day downward trajectory in new cases and robust testing for each phase. And no, doing a handful of tests and then declaring your county COVID-19 free is not robust testing.
I was talking to a senior citizen from Grants Pass today. She told about a woman who tested positive who is refusing to self-quarantine. Nobody has done any contact tracing on her, because the county doesn't have any money. The woman also drove north to Douglas County to play bridge, and nobody knows who she was in contact with. As long as there are people like that, we have a serious problem.
There will be books written about the time we are in right now along with decades of research. This is a pandemic, the likes of which, most have never experienced personally. Currently, I don't see how America can stop what you have just described. Not everyone will abide by self-quarantine best practices.
Then there are those who have it and don't even know it. So what do you do with that segment of the population? That's why the Taiwanese model worked so well with 95% of the population cooperating in wearing masks. Its the most economically feasible approach to prevention. But how do we get Americans to follow it? Maybe start with mandatory masks in all businesses where people are in close proximity. In WA, the governor is allowing construction to start back up, but only under such health and safety requirements. The job sites will be monitored for compliance. I believe Oregon hospitals have strict protocols like this as well. A friend of mine works in heathcare in PDX and they are even checking temperatures before allowing them to work each day. All are being tested for Covid and they get sent home with a fever.
Derek
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