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Old 02-22-2024, 04:01 PM
 
Location: Southwest
2,610 posts, read 2,338,951 times
Reputation: 1976

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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
...no one can really predict anymore then we can predict an asteroid hitting us and the damage
IIRC, Michael Bury did well predicting.
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Old 02-22-2024, 04:04 PM
 
Location: Southwest
2,610 posts, read 2,338,951 times
Reputation: 1976
Quote:
Originally Posted by curiousgeorge5 View Post
I'm not hugely familiar with the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ, but if they took a one-third hit in value, how detrimental would it be to the economy?

Lets assume there wasn't a V-shaped recovery afterwards and that it took several years to recover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
That is pretty much exactly what happened after 2007, except that the decline was greater than 50%.

There is usually going to be a certain level of pain in the economy when the stock market takes a major hit that takes years to recover. It isn’t pretty.

I don’t think that can be avoided.
I thought what happened some time after 2007 was a V-shaped recovery, or close to it.
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Old 02-22-2024, 08:20 PM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,691 posts, read 28,796,163 times
Reputation: 25272
Quote:
Originally Posted by curiousgeorge5 View Post
I thought what happened some time after 2007 was a V-shaped recovery, or close to it.
It took nearly 6 years for the S&P 500 to recover after 2007.

https://twitter.com/JLyonsFundMgmt/s...538496/photo/1

This was a time when home prices plummeted across the United States, big banks failed, the auto industry almost went bankrupt and unemployment skyrocketed to 10%.

It was about as close to the end of the world as most people in a developed country will likely experience in their lifetime.
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Old 02-22-2024, 08:23 PM
 
18,877 posts, read 8,531,308 times
Reputation: 4157
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
It took nearly 6 years for the S&P 500 to recover after 2007.

https://twitter.com/JLyonsFundMgmt/s...538496/photo/1

This was a time when home prices plummeted across the United States, big banks failed, the auto industry almost went bankrupt and unemployment skyrocketed to 10%.

It was about as close to the end of the world as most people in a developed country will likely experience in their lifetime.
And also the greatest buy low stock market opportunity in living memory.
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Old 02-23-2024, 01:39 AM
 
107,034 posts, read 109,346,048 times
Reputation: 80433
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
It took nearly 6 years for the S&P 500 to recover after 2007.

https://twitter.com/JLyonsFundMgmt/s...538496/photo/1

This was a time when home prices plummeted across the United States, big banks failed, the auto industry almost went bankrupt and unemployment skyrocketed to 10%.

It was about as close to the end of the world as most people in a developed country will likely experience in their lifetime.
i show just 4 years 2 months wth dividends for the vanguard s&p fund to get ahead

jan 2007 to feb 2011 up .60% cagr
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Old Today, 09:19 PM
 
Location: Minnesota
8 posts
Reputation: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by curiousgeorge5 View Post
I'm not hugely familiar with the Dow Jones, S&P, and NASDAQ, but if they took a one-third hit in value, how detrimental would it be to the economy?

Lets assume there wasn't a V-shaped recovery afterwards and that it took several years to recover.

The markets took a MUCH worse hit than that in the following year after the sept 11th (2001) attacks. It wasn't good...but we got thru it.
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Old Today, 09:24 PM
 
18,877 posts, read 8,531,308 times
Reputation: 4157
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunk View Post
The markets took a MUCH worse hit than that in the following year after the sept 11th (2001) attacks. It wasn't good...but we got thru it.
And the 2008 crash was worse. Creating the best buy low stock opportunity of a lifetime!
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