Remote Employment won't last (Greenville, Kingsport, Knoxville, CA)
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Where it really doesn’t make sense is the level 1 guy in the $45k-$50k range working 50 hours a week, or the first line manager making low six figures who gets pounded three ways by users, staff, and their management. Directors and above seem to be divorced from the problems the lower level people face.
Are promotions for either level 1 or first line managers common?
IF permanent WFH becomes commonplace (and I still think that is a big IF, more below), then there will be some serious wage and salary disruptions coming to the US. In my industry, technology, the wage differentials between the highest locales (Bay Area, NYC) and rural areas are more than 3x.
This differential has been increasing for at least 30 years, and it is one of the reasons so many tech people are road warriors. The specialized nature of many arcane computer systems and languages is another reason.
But _IF_ suddenly, tech people in the low COL areas can start to work anywhere, I foresee staffing people undercutting high local wages with cheaper options. Similar to the H1B phenomenon, but instead with native-born talent.
I also suspect that the WFH will eventually become a hybrid thing, but with an expectation that the employee can be summoned to the office at any time -- so WFH three days per week but be in office two, like Tuesday and Thursday. Many managers/ directors/ C-level execs are addicted to the control of their workforces, and having people unavailable for onsite facetime will grow old quickly.
I know of someone in my department who relocated to Oregon without any kind of management approval. He and his family just moved from Missouri to Oregon. So far nobody has complained, but leadership is already talking about returning to the office part-time in June and weekly all-hands meetings by July. How is this guy going to handle it?
IF permanent WFH becomes commonplace (and I still think that is a big IF, more below), then there will be some serious wage and salary disruptions coming to the US. In my industry, technology, the wage differentials between the highest locales (Bay Area, NYC) and rural areas are more than 3x.
This differential has been increasing for at least 30 years, and it is one of the reasons so many tech people are road warriors. The specialized nature of many arcane computer systems and languages is another reason.
But _IF_ suddenly, tech people in the low COL areas can start to work anywhere, I foresee staffing people undercutting high local wages with cheaper options. Similar to the H1B phenomenon, but instead with native-born talent.
I also suspect that the WFH will eventually become a hybrid thing, but with an expectation that the employee can be summoned to the office at any time -- so WFH three days per week but be in office two, like Tuesday and Thursday. Many managers/ directors/ C-level execs are addicted to the control of their workforces, and having people unavailable for onsite facetime will grow old quickly.
I know of someone in my department who relocated to Oregon without any kind of management approval. He and his family just moved from Missouri to Oregon. So far nobody has complained, but leadership is already talking about returning to the office part-time in June and weekly all-hands meetings by July. How is this guy going to handle it?
I dont see a issue with returning back to the office part-time and then eventually full-time
IF permanent WFH becomes commonplace (and I still think that is a big IF, more below), then there will be some serious wage and salary disruptions coming to the US. In my industry, technology, the wage differentials between the highest locales (Bay Area, NYC) and rural areas are more than 3x.
This differential has been increasing for at least 30 years, and it is one of the reasons so many tech people are road warriors. The specialized nature of many arcane computer systems and languages is another reason.
But _IF_ suddenly, tech people in the low COL areas can start to work anywhere, I foresee staffing people undercutting high local wages with cheaper options. Similar to the H1B phenomenon, but instead with native-born talent.
I also suspect that the WFH will eventually become a hybrid thing, but with an expectation that the employee can be summoned to the office at any time -- so WFH three days per week but be in office two, like Tuesday and Thursday. Many managers/ directors/ C-level execs are addicted to the control of their workforces, and having people unavailable for onsite facetime will grow old quickly.
I know of someone in my department who relocated to Oregon without any kind of management approval. He and his family just moved from Missouri to Oregon. So far nobody has complained, but leadership is already talking about returning to the office part-time in June and weekly all-hands meetings by July. How is this guy going to handle it?
My assumption would be this guy thinks his skills are strong enough that he could easily land a new job if his current employer tries to bring him back into the office.
WFH has gone on so long, there will not be a force back in most cases, but I could imagine a 25% in office/75% not, with tons of discretion picking the 25%. I do not think business, w/o covid liability protection via Congress, will want more than 25% occupancy for years, as their lawyers will tell them to take extra precautions to avoid lawsuits up the road.
Plus, corps in the middle of nowhere will seize wfh as a means to attract talent levels they could only dream of 15 months ago.
WFH has gone on so long, there will not be a force back in most cases, but I could imagine a 25% in office/75% not, with tons of discretion picking the 25%. I do not think business, w/o covid liability protection via Congress, will want more than 25% occupancy for years, as their lawyers will tell them to take extra precautions to avoid lawsuits up the road.
Plus, corps in the middle of nowhere will seize wfh as a means to attract talent levels they could only dream of 15 months ago.
As far as the bolded, you would think so, but I have yet to see that play out in real time.
The other side of the coin is that people who work in the middle of nowhere will tend to have a more conservative views regarding work culture. Even after seeing WFH successfully executed on a large scale basis during the pandemic, you just can't teach old dogs new tricks as they're still convinced people must have their AIS to be productive, since it's all they've known during their decades of employment.
I read a article a couple months ago that said employers in DFW, which is considered one of the most conservative major metros in the country, are already well ahead employers in other metros with transitioning folks back into the office.
I know of someone in my department who relocated to Oregon without any kind of management approval. He and his family just moved from Missouri to Oregon. So far nobody has complained, but leadership is already talking about returning to the office part-time in June and weekly all-hands meetings by July. How is this guy going to handle it?
Here are som possible ways he might handle it.
- The company might not return to office. Cases are rising not falling so any plans about returning to the office are subject to change. I remember last April when businesses thought they would be returning by mid-summer 2020.
- If he didn't buy a house there and is renting, he could return as quickly as he left. Maybe six months or more there is better than none to him.
- His value to the company might allow him to continue WFH.
- He might opt to get another WFH job if they demand a return to office. He might even be searching right now.
IF permanent WFH becomes commonplace (and I still think that is a big IF, more below), then there will be some serious wage and salary disruptions coming to the US. In my industry, technology, the wage differentials between the highest locales (Bay Area, NYC) and rural areas are more than 3x.
This differential has been increasing for at least 30 years, and it is one of the reasons so many tech people are road warriors. The specialized nature of many arcane computer systems and languages is another reason.
But _IF_ suddenly, tech people in the low COL areas can start to work anywhere, I foresee staffing people undercutting high local wages with cheaper options. Similar to the H1B phenomenon, but instead with native-born talent.
I also suspect that the WFH will eventually become a hybrid thing, but with an expectation that the employee can be summoned to the office at any time -- so WFH three days per week but be in office two, like Tuesday and Thursday. Many managers/ directors/ C-level execs are addicted to the control of their workforces, and having people unavailable for onsite facetime will grow old quickly.
I know of someone in my department who relocated to Oregon without any kind of management approval. He and his family just moved from Missouri to Oregon. So far nobody has complained, but leadership is already talking about returning to the office part-time in June and weekly all-hands meetings by July. How is this guy going to handle it?
Flip it around.
I make solid local money in a one horse town. I'm not making big city, much less California, money. What if I bail out to Raleigh? Is "forcing" me back to the office going to have much merit when I'm now living in a town where I can basically walk across the street and find something else? The "threat" would work locally, but it won't in a more vibrant labor market.
I don't like living here. I want to live somewhere more cosmopolitan. Everyone I work with knows that I despise the town our office is in. Forcing me to come back there butt-in-seat on any sort of regular basis means I leave the company. My manager is acutely aware of this. I think many of the <40 staffers we have, a small percentage of the labor force, probably feel similarly.
We are in a location where it is hard to find quality senior level IT individual contributors. We're not attractive to out of area candidates from a place like Raleigh. We aren't bleeding edge tech. It's back office ERP stuff to go along with EMR. You aren't going to find many Lawson experts in BFE Tennessee.
At this point, I think they would much rather retain competent, senior staff, no matter where they want to live, vs. running them off by demanding the sit their ass in a desk in Kingsport, TN.
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