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The Middle East and Russia will do whatever it takes to kill Shale and American Energy companies. You can blame greed of course, American oil companies is always thirsty to drill anywhere or sign contracts to buy up oil contracts. Killing Shale will give OPEC more leverage in any contract negotiations.
If I was working for oil companies where drilling or refineries are I would GTFO while you can. It'll be a bloodbath for American oil companies for a few years.
The Middle East and Russia will do whatever it takes to kill Shale and American Energy companies. You can blame greed of course, American oil companies is always thirsty to drill anywhere or sign contracts to buy up oil contracts. Killing Shale will give OPEC more leverage in any contract negotiations.
If I was working for oil companies where drilling or refineries are I would GTFO while you can. It'll be a bloodbath for American oil companies for a few years.
I wouldn't go that far.
I think 2015 will likely be a lackluster year for the industry.
Probably more layoffs on the horizon for awhile.
But I suspect oil prices will creep upward as the year goes on
and we'll see a rebound by the end o the year.
The Middle East and Russia will do whatever it takes to kill Shale and American Energy companies. Killing Shale will give OPEC more leverage in any contract negotiations.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GM1258
I wouldn't go that far.
I think 2015 will likely be a lackluster year for the industry.
Right. The oil exporters you mentioned are not stupid enough to think that they can kill the shaie industry.
Their dumping of oil into the market is all about desperation on their part. They have had decades to diversify their economies and have not. Oil export money is all they have and thus they are desperately selling at whatever price they can get.
OPEC's pricing power has gone the way of the Dodo.
They won't turn off the spigots till there simply are no more tankers to load their product on. This will happen sooner or later and bring the price below $20. There is no reason to think that shale producers will stop producing at that price.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vision33r
If I was working for oil companies where drilling or refineries are I would GTFO while you can. It'll be a bloodbath for American oil companies for a few years.
I wish you would discontinue the drive-by scare-mongering. There is no reason for anyone to "GTFO" unless they cannot find a job. I could see that for some labor categories. Your advice to just abandon the area has no basis in reality.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vision33r
You can blame greed of course, American oil companies is always thirsty to drill anywhere or sign contracts to buy up oil contracts.
It's not greed. It's just good old ambition and the desire to fill a hole in the market. It isn't any different than marketing a new type of smartphone or some new flavor of coffee.
Fracking is every bit as high tech as any technology being applied to the latest computer chips. It's providing employment and reducing the enormous trade deficit we have.
Right. The oil exporters you mentioned are not stupid enough to think that they can kill the shaie industry.
Their dumping of oil into the market is all about desperation on their part. They have had decades to diversify their economies and have not. Oil export money is all they have and thus they are desperately selling at whatever price they can get.
OPEC's pricing power has gone the way of the Dodo.
They won't turn off the spigots till there simply are no more tankers to load their product on. This will happen sooner or later and bring the price below $20. There is no reason to think that shale producers will stop producing at that price.
I wish you would discontinue the scare-mongering.
It's not greed. It's just good old ambition and the desire to fill a hole in the market. It isn't any different than marketing a new type of smartphone or some new flavor of coffee.
Fracking is every bit as high tech as any technology being applied to the latest computer chips. It's providing employment and reducing the enormous trade deficit we have.
They won't kill it, but they are forcing us to fix our approach. Drilling and operations have slowed considerably and it wont be recovering to previous levels. We will now be forced to start doing what should have been done the last three years... streamlining applications and work on higher recovery rates per dollar. I'm pretty sure at the executive level of most majors they assumed OPEC was going to proceed with "business as usual", and cut production. Surprise surprise surprise, they decided not to give up that kind of market share. Why should they? Our oil is way over priced. It doesn't make sense for the We need to realize that the oil sector in the United States is different now. There is no longer enough spare capacity of conventional oil for large companies to grow at the rate the stock market requires.
The good thing to come out of this will be the decline in willingness to drill unprofitable wells. Obviously that is part of exploration, but come on. Many companies have been drilling stupid wells because, well the money was there and it was free, via over priced stock, junk bonds and banks handing money out like candy. The Mississippi Lime and Sand Ridge as a whole, are prime examples of an entire play that would never have been developed without the Fed handing banks free money.
The financials of many operators that focused on horizontal shale drilling is not pretty and they'll never get out of their hole. They are now in the mode of trying to drill their way out. It's not going to happen outside geo-political issues driving prices up. Even then, many companies will still fail. They were never going to make it. Not even at $80 oil for 10 years. It was a Ponzi scheme for many. Once we get the uneconomical intentionally completed wells out of drilling programs, we can then start finding an honest supply and demand curve for the industry. The supply, demand and price of oil are going to be more volitile from here on out. The days of cheap and easy oil that fulfills the worlds daily needs are gone. The days of political unrest not being bought off by high oil prices are done.
Unfortunately we now have Middle East and South American countries whose budgets soley rely on $80-100 oil to keep the terrorist and instability beat down...can't forget keeping Putin in power either. Anyway, they have no incentive to keep prices down either. Ill finish with this: I don't see the idea of leaving 100's of wells uncompleted as a way to solve the problem. That's placing too much trust in the hands of people that have already proven themselves incapable of making the call of when to drill and how much to drill. Having half ready wells will only add to that difficulty and cause operators to make decisions they might not normally make. With that said, I will say that it will help keep people employees and might save on costs. I'm just not sold that the end game is better.
Last edited by Parkerlewis33; 04-02-2015 at 12:49 PM..
They won't kill it, ... never have been developed ... Ponzi scheme ... Putin ... proven themselves incapable ....
It's too bad marijuana isn't legal here. You sound like you could use a bowl ( or two ).
Here's the big picture for all the gloom-and-doomers:
According to the latest eia figures ( 2013 ) , the world consumes about 91.1 M bbls oil/day and produces 90.9 M bbls oil/day. Those figures are from a time when oil was $100+/bbl.
It doesn't matter if those numbers went to consumption of 93 M and production of 95 M, that ratio is pretty tight. As prices drop, consumption numbers will go up.
If consumption climbs up to 95 M and production stays where it is, prices probably won't go to (*) $100/bbl, but they will sure be higher than they are now. If oil goes to $60-70/bbl then most operations will probably just muddle through and there won't be much call for punching a lot of new holes.
(*) as always, predictions from anyone posting on internet discussion forums should be taken for what they are worth. If I need to tell you what they are worth, this comment is not directed at you.
It wouldn't take much to change things.
-o- Iran could come fully back on-line and increase supply by 2 M.
-o- ISIS could stage a big operation and take out 2 M capacity somewhere.
In the mean time, babies made, oh ... say 15-17 years ago will want to drive a car here, in the US, in China, the Middle East and other places. $2 gasoline will cause people to change their car buying choices to V8s instead of V6s and so on. There is a lot that will cause consumption to go up at current prices.
When the world is looking at probably less than a 2% gap between consumption and production, with the trend being toward tight supplies over the last few decades, North Dakota is going to be a major oil producer for the rest of/most of our lifetimes and oil production jobs are going to be plentiful in ND in the long run.
Big companies always panic and lay off more people than they should have. Then they turn around and hire anyone with a pulse.
-o- If I was affected by layoffs, I would sign up for unemployment and look for another job. It's still a better place to look than just about anywhere in the world. ( It will be even better in about six months, as usual. )
-o- If I was looking to get out of here for good "pretty soon" then take this as a sign. Figure out where you want to go and figure out which state pays better unemployment compensation and get outta' Dodge.
( If you don't have any savings and can't afford Williston or Watford prices, let that be a lesson to you. )
Continental, oasis,key, whiting are all now desperately hoping oil goes back to 100 there debt levels are atrocious. They have no chance of surviving this oil crash. Things are not at all well in williston. Many developers have canceled projects until oil comes back. Thing is commodities dont just suddenly come back it takes ten years. So GTFO of williston is what is happening right now. Lots of people coming for the spring but they do not know how bad the job fairs were. Things have changed its not the same. Besides culvers and mendens there are no plans for any new companies. Booms go bust.
I'm not a doomsdayer. I run my operation off of tangible facts and can't hold to "hope" that Saudi will cut, ISIS goes into southern Iraq, Yemen ges out of hand and/or etc. Not that I want any of that to happen... I wouldn't object to a Saudi cut. Anyway, I don't have junk bonds or unknowing investors to prop me up like both small and big shale operators. I have to plan for the worst.
Its not going to be 10 years. We are going to see supply fall faster than we ever have before. Unless re-fracing works extremely well... could happen? It is going to be longer than 98' and 08' because this is an industry issue this time. We simply misjudged Saudi's move. I don't think it'll look like 86' though. With Inflation adjusted that crash more or less lasted right up through 98' into 2001. I look at 98' as a price drop inside a depression. It nearly put me out of business.
Like the poster above stated... Demand will go up. Still projected to increase 500,000 bbls this year. However, the world economies are slowing down. I'm not at all worried about 2 years from now. The world would have to be in deep trouble if prices haven't recovered by then. Outside geo-political I can see the perfect storm keep prices sub $60-70 for 12-18 months. It very well may go above $100 soon after because I'm just not sure where 1 million bbls of spare capacity is going to come from if Obama and his cronies will ever get out of the way of capitalism and let real growth take hold.
Whiting has been looking at buyers and mergers for years, but this time they have no other options. I've read press releases claiming they can restructure and survive. They are well beyond a debt restructure. Like I said before, many operators were going to be in trouble in the next few years with oil at $80. Artificially enhanced PV-10's tend to come back to haunt you. Institutional and private equity money aren't going to be thrown at oil deals like before. The truth is out that it was a bubble. Strong fundamentals are always king.
Last edited by Parkerlewis33; 04-04-2015 at 06:54 PM..
Reason: A
We are going to see supply fall faster than we ever have before. Unless re-fracing works extremely well... could happen?
Sure does.
Re-fracking costs money that probably isn't worth it if the pay-back period stretches out for months and months.
OTOH, as long as the oil that comes out can be sold for more than the cost of running the pumps ( electricity, maintenance, cost to truck out the waste water and oil ), the well can wait indefinitely for higher prices to be re-fracked.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Parkerlewis33
We are going to see supply fall faster than we ever have before.
I don't think so - looking at the big picture.
If we DON'T see ISIS take over any oil fields then Iraq production is on the increase. Iran might be adding to the world's supply and so is Russia with many projects that have been under development for years.
Even the US has some new supply coming on-line in the Gulf of Mexico. Remember that most US production is not from shale, but traditional wells which are always on the decline, but not like a shale well that isn't re-fracked.
Eventually, the world will run out of tankers to take oil out of the Middle East and other exporting areas. The US can't turn it off. Until someone who can turn it off, does turn it off, the price will keep going down.
Even though the US can continue to import less and less, the US price is still largely the world price.
I wonder who owns the land under the current airport?
Once operations move to the new one, that land will be the most valuable real estate ( per square foot ) in the whole town. They could leave the runways there and have a grand boulevard with the best pavement in town. Landscaped with trees it would really look nice.
Bicycle rodeos! That does sound like a nice idea for an interesting park.
Continental, oasis,key, whiting, nuverra are all now desperately hoping oil goes back to 100 there debt levels are atrocious. They have no chance of surviving this oil crash. Things are not at all well in williston with north dakota oil selling for about 22. Maybe Oil could start to go up for another dead cat bounce but by september it will fall with everything else together in a deflationary death spiral. Although War might change that. Commodities dont just suddenly come back it takes about ten years. So GTFO of williston is what is happening right now. Lots of people coming for the spring but they do not know how bad the job fairs were. Things have changed its not the same. Besides culvers and mendens there are no plans for any new companies. Developments seem to have been put on hold. DEFLATION has begun. Booms go bust.
So is that why Stropiq is having an open house at the ARC and then presentation to the Williams County Commisioners on their 500 million dollar retail and commercial development proposed for Williston? The only ones who will kill this development is our county commissioners. As far as your doomsday comments and nothing happeing in Williston, you are obviously not from there or living there. As far as Culvers and "mendens"?????? What the heck is "mendens"???? Do you mean Menards??? Another indication you don't know what you are talking about. Boston's Bar and Grill will be another new restaurant we will be seeing in the near future, Papa John's just opened, as did Smiling Moose, Quadobas, Papa Murphy's and Little Caesers along with other businesses (including a new Chinese buffet) are opening up in The Bad Lands Town Center. Next to Papa Murphy's, Red Wing Shoes is getting ready to open up a new store. Close to Menards new store in the Sand Creek Town Center, Sportsman's Warehouse has just finished shelling in their new store... I think SpringLake should either take a drive to Williston...or if he LIVES there...maybe better hop in a car and drive around Williston to see what IS going on.
Last edited by Roloff1976; 04-06-2015 at 04:14 PM..
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