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Totally agree. I think those in the industry know this is a temporary slump. It is definitely not a bust. Nothing wrong with a little slow down so everyone can catch their breaths. I know several people who work in the oil industry in Williston, and they said so far everything is still running strong up there. I'm guessing if the prices don't come up this spring or summer, there will need to be some cut backs temporarily. But OPEC can't hold out much longer either. They can produce oil a lot cheaper than we can, but their economies and governments rely almost completely on the price of oil. I wonder why the media doesn't talk about the affects on the OPEC countries? We just hear the "sky is falling" stories about the US shale boom that they seem to be hoping will go bust.
I don't remember where I read it, nor how true it was, but I read an article talking about this being an artificial low created by OPEC and the big oil countries to intentionally bust the smaller companies and slow down production in the U.S.. If they could bust the. small man, they could create an unstable situation that would make them afraid to restart, hence, keep production in the U.S. at a lower level. It mentioned that production, if left unchecked, would give the U.S. too much leverage.
Totally agree. I think those in the industry know this is a temporary slump. It is definitely not a bust. Nothing wrong with a little slow down so everyone can catch their breaths. I know several people who work in the oil industry in Williston, and they said so far everything is still running strong up there. I'm guessing if the prices don't come up this spring or summer, there will need to be some cut backs temporarily. But OPEC can't hold out much longer either. They can produce oil a lot cheaper than we can, but their economies and governments rely almost completely on the price of oil. I wonder why the media doesn't talk about the affects on the OPEC countries? We just hear the "sky is falling" stories about the US shale boom that they seem to be hoping will go bust.
I agree that there are people that are hoping it will bust. I'm not sure what else to think. On the one hand, I agree with your post, but, on the other hand, I don't think we can ever be too sure.
Totally agree. I think those in the industry know this is a temporary slump. It is definitely not a bust. Nothing wrong with a little slow down so everyone can catch their breaths. I know several people who work in the oil industry in Williston, and they said so far everything is still running strong up there. I'm guessing if the prices don't come up this spring or summer, there will need to be some cut backs temporarily. But OPEC can't hold out much longer either. They can produce oil a lot cheaper than we can, but their economies and governments rely almost completely on the price of oil. I wonder why the media doesn't talk about the affects on the OPEC countries? We just hear the "sky is falling" stories about the US shale boom that they seem to be hoping will go bust.
I would agree they have to be able to keep terrorist away. Especially ISIS who just killed a Saudi Border General. The problem is that Saudi hedged a good amount of oil through at least 2015 and they also have over 700 billion in liquidity. It's a pretty scary situation mixed with domestic operators that will try and drill themselves through the crash. However, that will be tough because at sub $40 outside Texas and Oklahoma, the financing is done. The junk bond and treasury spread is 30%. Nothing good ever happens at this point. I'm also know that the Bakken and Niobrara don't work unless WTI is $80. Sure the sweet spots will work, but not enough to justify smart money. Debt service and some infrastructure costs are not accounted for in many "break even" stats. It's usually the operator or financier realeasing those figures. Neither stands to gain much by calling it what it is... a bad situation where CapEx has to be cut. Jobs Jobs Jobs.
With the price of oil falling to below $45, how has this affected Wiliston's growth?
Are there less people living in Williston now?
It's certainly a lot less busy. Instead of lots of trucks running day and night, they are just running during the day on US-85. Williston is closing 2 man camps for fire code violations and some of the "mom-and-pop" service companies are laying off. They aren't closing down yet so I think the worst parts of the bust have yet to occur (empty buildings, bankruptcy proceedings, ect.) The debate right now is if this is a temporary price or if we will go back to $80 this year. The financial press has changed their tune and are now talking about staying at these levels for "some time". That could be 6 months or 3 years depending on who you ask. Krazy Kramer won't recommend any oil stocks so the cheerleader effect from CNBC is gone.
I don't see people leave the Bakken just yet other than the ones in the man camps which by definition are temporary housing. If I am here and start seeing "Free Rent" or "Utilities Included" signs on the apartment complexes, then people are actually leaving. There may not be a mass exodus like in the 1980s but it will be steady stream in about 3 months when one or two smaller producers go belly up.
My company just hired 12 people this past Monday. We have more people quitting than anything else so maybe that has something to do with the new hiring.
My completely uneducated opinion: Halliburton, Schlumberger, and giants like them as well as those service companies that are contracted with them, should weather just fine...
Schlumberger announced a layoff of 9,000, so it's not weathering just fine:
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