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I totally agree with this statement. The vision Stan Kroenke had was too big for St. Louis.
I agree. Now that I've cooled down a bit and I can think a bit more rationally about it, I'm not as angry as I was (Kroenke is still an a-hole) and I think St. Louis dodged a bullet.
St. Louis and Missouri could not afford another stadium.
I also think very few cities have the population based on current demographic trends to do so. I think we are just about at peak Sports. The people that fill these large stadiums 50-70k seat stadiums are largely an aging white demographic. It's a demographic that is fairly affluent. It's true in all of the major professional sports and also major college football and basketball. The generations that follow are smaller and have less money and are simply not as affluent. They also aren't as bound up in tradition (I'm going to get season tickets because my Dad did and I went as a kid). You are already seeing attendance decline in sports like college football and I think you will see it in the NFL soon enough. And while TV money is king, the millenials are leading the way in "cutting the cord" and not paying hefty cable bills. They pick and choose programming they want. Has anyone read about how many millions of subscribers ESPN has lost the last several years?
I think a new giant stadium in St. Louis would be an absolute albatross for a metro our size in 10-20 years.
LA is the only "open" city with the population to make this work.
I predict we are at Peak Sports Inc. for the next few years before you see numbers decline from attendance to TV revenues.
Kroenke is 69 years old. He's developed strip malls for Walmart. He wants his palace and will have it. It's a fitting final and wasteful mausoleum or an aging dinosaur
I know so. Just think what that would have done to the North Riverfront. A big salad bowl with larger parking lots in a historic area.
The area is prime for a major comeback. You have the casino, Metrolink, and soon renovated Arch grounds. Imagine what a billion would do for the area developing as a neighborhood.
Imagine what a billion would do for the area developing as a neighborhood.
Well, I doubt the NFL and PSL-holders are going to kick in hundreds of millions for developing the north riverfront. Probably not the state either, for that matter.
Well, I doubt the NFL and PSL-holders are going to kick in hundreds of millions for developing the north riverfront. Probably not the state either, for that matter.
No, it's going to have to be organic, but if it happens that way, it may last.
I agree. Now that I've cooled down a bit and I can think a bit more rationally about it, I'm not as angry as I was (Kroenke is still an a-hole) and I think St. Louis dodged a bullet.
St. Louis and Missouri could not afford another stadium.
I also think very few cities have the population based on current demographic trends to do so. I think we are just about at peak Sports. The people that fill these large stadiums 50-70k seat stadiums are largely an aging white demographic. It's a demographic that is fairly affluent. It's true in all of the major professional sports and also major college football and basketball. The generations that follow are smaller and have less money and are simply not as affluent. They also aren't as bound up in tradition (I'm going to get season tickets because my Dad did and I went as a kid). You are already seeing attendance decline in sports like college football and I think you will see it in the NFL soon enough. And while TV money is king, the millenials are leading the way in "cutting the cord" and not paying hefty cable bills. They pick and choose programming they want. Has anyone read about how many millions of subscribers ESPN has lost the last several years?
I think Midwestern and NE cities are more or less at peak sports for the reasons you mentioned. The expense of going to games has grown and the relative share of people willing to spend by attending has declined. Franchises need increasingly larger population centers to continue to support their revenues, especially as the Big 4 leagues seem to be pretty capped out as far as future expansion goes and MLS has gained some traction. I can't really see a day with 40 team leagues because 16 teams in the postseason is pretty much the max. Teams sell well when there is at least an illusion of competitiveness (AKA postseason) and having more than half the teams sitting out a postseason every year doesn't really help this illusion.
40 years ago, a 1 million to 2.5 million metro was pretty much guaranteed to be a 3-4 sport town. Not so much anymore. Buffalo lost the NBA. KC lost the NBA. Cincy lost hockey (WHA) and before that NBA. Pittsburgh lost the ABA. STL the ABA (before that NBA) and NFL. San Diego, which was actually growing at a much faster rate lost WHA, NBA, and it appears the NFL soon. Baltimore is out of hockey and the NBA now. The only larger older city that hasn't lost out is Milwaukee, but they've only been a 2 sport town.
If baseball wasn't so difficult to move, I don't know that the Pirates and Indians would have stuck around in PIT and CLE, the remaining 3-sport markets from the mid-sized, older markets. Teams are going to need to relocate to the growing markets that are pushing 1.5 - 3 million to get the revenues they need.
We're entering an era when we're probably going to see a dozen or so 3-4 sport markets with the next 30 or so markets specializing in 1-2 sports.
If baseball wasn't so difficult to move, I don't know that the Pirates and Indians would have stuck around in PIT and CLE, the remaining 3-sport markets from the mid-sized, older markets. Teams are going to need to relocate to the growing markets that are pushing 1.5 - 3 million to get the revenues they need.
Cleveland-Akron is the 15th largest combined statistical area (3.5 mil population), still larger than the 3 major franchise CSAs of Denver and Pittsburgh. The Toledo (700k), Erie (PA; 900k) and Youngstown (700k; just over an hour from Cleveland) CSAs are within a couple hours of Cleveland. Cleveland also battles Cincinnati for the Columbus (2.4 m) market, also just over two hours away; Cleveland may eventually win this battle as the Cavs are Ohio's only NBA franchise and may cause Columbus sports fans to think north and because only in recent years the Tribe's AAA franchise has been in Columbus.
Although Cleveland has an AHL franchise, only the NHL Columbus Blue Jackets are shown on cable TV in Cleveland.
The Indians attendance problem results from the diminished northern Ohio manufacturing economy and the proximity of the Tigers, Pirates and Blue Jays. Toledo is partially a Tigers town given the long-time affiliation of Toledo's AAA baseball franchise with the Tigers and because Detroit is closer. The Pirates are strong in the Erie and Youngstown CSAs. For many years, the Tribe's AAA franchise was in Buffalo, and there were many fans there who followed the Tribe. The Tribe switched AAA affiliations with the Yankees, who now are in Buffalo and used to be in Columbus. Toronto is an hour closer to Buffalo than Cleveland and is in the American League, as are the Yankees and the Indians; with the weak Canadian dollar, Toronto is a popular venue these days for American AL fans.
The Cavs do well because they are Ohio's only NBA team and Pittsburgh doesn't have an NBA franchise.
Cleveland-Akron is the 15th largest combined statistical area (3.5 mil population), still larger than the 3 major franchise CSAs of Denver and Pittsburgh. The Toledo (700k), Erie (PA; 900k) and Youngstown (700k; just over an hour from Cleveland) CSAs are within a couple hours of Cleveland. Cleveland also battles Cincinnati for the Columbus (2.4 m) market, also just over two hours away; Cleveland may eventually win this battle as the Cavs are Ohio's only NBA franchise and may cause Columbus sports fans to think north and because only in recent years the Tribe's AAA franchise has been in Columbus.
Although Cleveland has an AHL franchise, only the NHL Columbus Blue Jackets are shown on cable TV in Cleveland.
The Indians attendance problem results from the diminished northern Ohio manufacturing economy and the proximity of the Tigers, Pirates and Blue Jays. Toledo is partially a Tigers town given the long-time affiliation of Toledo's AAA baseball franchise with the Tigers and because Detroit is closer. The Pirates are strong in the Erie and Youngstown CSAs. For many years, the Tribe's AAA franchise was in Buffalo, and there were many fans there who followed the Tribe. The Tribe switched AAA affiliations with the Yankees, who now are Buffalo and used to be in Columbus. Toronto is an hour closer to Buffalo than Cleveland and is in the American League, as are the Yankees and the Indians; with the weak Canadian dollar, Toronto is a popular venue these days for American AL fans.
The Cavs do well because they are Ohio's only NBA team and Pittsburgh doesn't have an NBA franchise.
CSA's aren't really indicative of who has the greatest affinity for going to games though. Nor is being the only NBA team in OH really that valuable when we're talking about a hypothetical basketball fan in Cincinnati. Generally, the closer you are, the more valuable you are. On that count, Denver's MSA is 25% larger than Cleveland's, and the region is growing considerably. When you get down to it, money in the area is even more important, and the difference between Denver and Cleveland is even greater: $187.1 billion of GDP to $124.6 billion. If you want to expand things regionally a bit (or a lot):
Cleveland MSA+Akron+Youngstown+Erie regional GDP is still less than Denver+Boulder by about 11%.
I do think Cleveland, per person, considering their income levels, probably supports professional sports about as well as any metro in the country. So there is that compared to Denver, where people are probably also more inclined to spend money+time on outdoor activities like skiing and hiking.
The point of this isn't to rail on Cleveland but to point out that long term trends required to support teams doesn't bode well long term for places like Cleveland and Pittsburgh (with 3 teams) or Buffalo (with 2 teams) given income, population, and growth patterns.
If the point in time comes when it's just a matter of time before a big NFL stadium push between Austin and San Antonio occurs, the NBA wants back in Seattle, Charlotte grows into another Atlanta, etc, we'll see the same cities under relo attack:
Bucks, Pacers, Cavs (once attendance declines back to pre-Lebron levels), Pirates, Indians, Brewers, and so on. If the economics make sense, its not crazy to assume a market without any team (and the revenue void waiting to buy in) could swipe a team from a region that is growing with a solid amount of money like a Minneapolis even. Going forward, LA, Chicago, NYC, Boston, DC, Philly, Miami, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and the Bay Area are safe bets to keep representation in their respective sports. Phoenix, Minneapolis, Denver, and Seattle probably too. You might see a "second team" like the Raiders leave or hockey where it just isn't a good fit, but those markets have the right combination of growth and money that is hard to find elsewhere. Once you get to the next tier though, there are plenty of places where a team moving from #3 status in one market to sole pro team or #2 team in another market makes perfect economic sense.
CSA's aren't really indicative of who has the greatest affinity for going to games though. Nor is being the only NBA team in OH really that valuable when we're talking about a hypothetical basketball fan in Cincinnati. Generally, the closer you are, the more valuable you are. On that count, Denver's MSA is 25% larger than Cleveland's, and the region is growing considerably. When you get down to it, money in the area is even more important, and the difference between Denver and Cleveland is even greater: $187.1 billion of GDP to $124.6 billion. If you want to expand things regionally a bit (or a lot):
Cleveland MSA+Akron+Youngstown+Erie regional GDP is still less than Denver+Boulder by about 11%.
If you include the population within one hour of Cleveland, it likely would be considerably higher than the population within one hour of Denver as it includes all of the Cleveland CSA.
I suspect the Denver area GDP has been greatly inflated by high energy prices. The recent collapse in energy prices likely will greatly benefit the Cleveland GDP (and the GDPs of Chicago, Milwaukee and other northern cities not participating in the shale boom) and depress that in the Denver area and other regions with large energy sectors. It will be interesting to see the impact in coming years, as the associated multiplier effects work their magic.
E.g., I know persons in Boulder County that have seen their royalty checks slashed.
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