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There is absolutely no way professional football will ever decline.
And the Titanic was unsinkable....
The nation's largest youth football program, Pop Warner, saw participation drop 9.5 percent between 2010-12, a sign that the concussion crisis that began in the NFL is having a dramatic impact at the lowest rungs of the sport.
The nation's largest youth football program, Pop Warner, saw participation drop 9.5 percent between 2010-12, a sign that the concussion crisis that began in the NFL is having a dramatic impact at the lowest rungs of the sport.
Pop Warner director of media relations Josh Pruce - "I won’t have 2015 numbers for a while but I can tell you that since 2012 our numbers have basically stabled-off at 225,000 participants."
Like anything, when some sort of crisis is first introduced by the media, you get knee-jerk reactions and you have people pulling their kids out left and right. Since that point, the initial "scare" has calmed down and people are looking at what organizations like Pop Warner and the NFL are doing to counter the risks of head injuries. Obviously, both organizations have been doing what they can to help elevate the risk. But make no mistake, it's a contact sport. You're always going to have concussions. You're going to have broken legs. You're going to have injuries.
I'm sure for those who are not sports fans, especially football fans, they don't understand why society has the appetite for violent sports. You have some who just want society to get rid of anything that they don't particular approve of or like, just because they don't see the value it brings. So they see things like the concussion crisis and they get all excited that this will finally be the death knell of football. Those, like myself, who are football fans, obviously know the likelihood of the sport going away anytime soon is very, very, small. But, we also see the good that comes with sports competition. There is a lot of good that comes from football programs, basketball, volleyball, etc... I learned a lot of discipline when I played football. Not just respect for my coaches, but discipline in how I carried myself off the field. For some of these kids, football is the only thing that saves them.
Pop Warner director of media relations Josh Pruce - "I won’t have 2015 numbers for a while but I can tell you that since 2012 our numbers have basically stabled-off at 225,000 participants."
Assuming roughly 2000 players at the professional level, that's less than 1%. So, if pop warner sees a 20% drop (to roughly 180,000) that still doesn't have any real impact to the pro level.
Assuming roughly 2000 players at the professional level, that's less than 1%. So, if pop warner sees a 20% drop (to roughly 180,000) that still doesn't have any real impact to the pro level.
And here is another eye opener in the percentage of kids, who go on to play high school football, who actually go on to college and then the NFL:
Quote:
— Scott Carter (@GatorsScott) September 7, 2015.
"The infographic explains there are more than 1 million high school football players, 6.5 percent of those players make NCAA programs and 1.6 percent of the NCAA pool reaches the NFL. At the pro level, players are "lucky" to get three years out of their skill and health."
6.5% of the 1 million high school football players actually make a college football roster. And 1.6% of the NCAA pool of football players actually go on to the NFL. And out of the 1.6% that make it to the NFL are lucky to last longer than three years in the league. I would guesstimate that maybe 30% of those NFL rookies last longer than 3 years, but I wouldn't be surprised if that % is lower.
So, as you can see, any decline in participation at the grade school, high school level really has no real effect on college or the NFL. Both are so selective with who makes it that any real damage to the NFL product wouldn't be noticed for several decades down the road. It would take much, much longer than 20 years to see the NFL decline, and that would be with the assumption kids leaving football in droves, as in a mass exodus that continues for decades. Since the point of 2012, participation in high school football has, at worst, wavered. Meaning, it rose in 2014, declined somewhat in 2015....we'll have to see how it is in 2016, but if it continued the "wavering" trend from now until 2046, it still wouldn't have any effect on the NFL.
Part of me wants to say it's too popular to suffer steep decline but the other part knows that the schools all the way up through the colleges face grim financial consequences.
It's popular enough to weather any immediate storm IMO because there is some assumption of risk defense but it could head into a gradual decline.
If I were forced to wager I doubt it suffers any catastrophic decline at the college or pro levels in the next few decades.
Part of me wants to say it's too popular to suffer steep decline but the other part knows that the schools all the way up through the colleges face grim financial consequences.
It's popular enough to weather any immediate storm IMO because there is some assumption of risk defense but it could head into a gradual decline.
If I were forced to wager I doubt it suffers any catastrophic decline at the college or pro levels in the next few decades.
With the NFL announcing a rule change where the ball is placed at the 25 yard line instead of the 20 on Touchbacks, that will greatly reduce teams trying to run the ball out of the endzone. I'm saying that to say that the NFL claims kick off plays are the most dangerous plays in football, and is where you see the largest portion of concussions coming from. Having played on kick off coverage in the past, I can most definitely see this being absolutely true! It's rough being pancaked by a 300 pound guy out from nowhere. If this becomes a permanent rule change, then college and downward will follow suit.
I mean, I would hope no parent signing up their kids for football are doing so under the assumption that football is 100% injury free? If so, it lacks a knowledge of sports.
The NFL will get softer as society gets softer/safer. This might allow them to continue.
Just think of all the middle and upper class parents in white America that can/are pulling their babies out of football or steering them in other directions. If there's only a 0.001% of making money at it - why should they take the chance? These same families are also the ones buying NFL tickets/appeal and watching the commercials. If parents make football less important to their children than those children will become adults that don't care about football. In a lot of ways football requires being a savage that doesn't worry about his health and well being or safety of others (especially with money on the line). Many parents don't want this for their kids and the concussion thing gives them a justifiable reason.
The problem is the football program is bankrolling a lot of these colleges. Look at the Missouri protest last year, they got what they wanted fairly quickly because the football team is essentially the economic stimulus of that school. They have so much leverage its scary
The NFL will get softer as society gets softer/safer. This might allow them to continue.
Just think of all the middle and upper class parents in white America that can/are pulling their babies out of football or steering them in other directions. If there's only a 0.001% of making money at it - why should they take the chance? These same families are also the ones buying NFL tickets/appeal and watching the commercials. If parents make football less important to their children than those children will become adults that don't care about football. In a lot of ways football requires being a savage that doesn't worry about his health and well being or safety of others (especially with money on the line). Many parents don't want this for their kids and the concussion thing gives them a justifiable reason.
The upper class has their kids in private schools that may or may not even have football. The majority of football is played in public schools. But again, as pointed out earlier, there is such a small % of high school players going on to college, and even a smaller % of college players moving on to the NFL, that kids being pulled out of football in grade school and high school will, virtually, have no effect on the NFL any time soon.
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