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If that's the case, you would think that there would be greater effort on trying to end it rather than just keeping throwing cash at it (Zelensky supposedly needs $9Billion a month while pols want to pump $650 Billion into the IMF).
Putin knows that we have a threshold of economic pain threshold. And we Americans should all know this as well. Currently, it is a chess game. This game won't last forever. The time will come when getting elected (a.ka. popular opinion) will win out. The only question is when.
Don't understand the Power of the Pandemic (TM) . When you looks at the 1918-20 Spanish Flu and the subsequent short but severe recession 1921 you see so many parallels. The inflation, supply chain disruptions, the excessive risk taking across the board, and then almost all trends (and prices) reverted to where they started. Plus Prohibition, though I don't think (hope) we'll get there In short, I think the trend reversions will be much stronger than most people believe.
On the other hand I don't like the excessive doom and gloom that's going on right now either. After the 1921 recession we got the Raging 20s, and a lot of prosperity and inventions. So when we're through with the post pandemic slump a new age of prosperity is waiting.
The pandemic is mostly over. Well, other than China still trying to control it and shutting down massive towns (with a 0% chance of success with this variant).
Inflation had a lot to do with giving everyone prosperity at the same time (free money to the rich and poor), overvalued stocks, labor shortages causing overconfidence, plus printing of money all across the world, add price gouging (record profits by all), and recently huge increases in the cost of energy because of the war.
Yea, the pandemic tripped off most of this. But we managed the solution by handing out printed money so that it was a soft landing. Now, we may (or may not) pay for it dearly. My mind ebb and flows by the month on what will happen next. Two months ago, I thought crap was hitting the proverbial fan. Right now, I'm breathing easier. So much so that I just bought another $50K of inventory or 15 boxes (at a deal of course. I just sold two of these $6600 retail widgets/toys today). I wrote another $20K of business yesterday. As I said, the economy has heated up again. Ignore last months numbers, it's back to business again. Who knows how long....
The pandemic is mostly over. Well, other than China still trying to control it and shutting down massive towns (with a 0% chance of success with this variant).
Inflation had a lot to do with giving everyone prosperity at the same time (free money to the rich and poor), overvalued stocks, labor shortages causing overconfidence, plus printing of money all across the world, add price gouging (record profits by all), and recently huge increases in the cost of energy because of the war.
Yea, the pandemic tripped off most of this. But we managed the solution by handing out printed money so that it was a soft landing. Now, we may (or may not) pay for it dearly. My mind ebb and flows by the month on what will happen next. Two months ago, I thought crap was hitting the proverbial fan. Right now, I'm breathing easier. So much so that I just bought another $50K of inventory or 15 boxes (at a deal of course. I just sold two of these $6600 retail widgets/toys today). I wrote another $20K of business yesterday. As I said, the economy has heated up again. Ignore last months numbers, it's back to business again. Who knows how long....
Yeah the public pessimism indicator exploded beyond anything I've seen. Everyone and their cat googles "recession", "inverted yield curve" and similar doom and gloom. So much so that we may see a good intermittent stock market rally here. My twitter feed is pure doom-scrolling
Together with the Cromford Report, The Information Market by Tom Ruff are the best Phoenix RE market analyses IMO. Tom's forecast for July prices is -5.3% from June. In other words we will be more than 50% of your likely scenario in just one month... This indicates a larger correction for me at hand. And again, I'm not a perma-doomer, those are just idiots.
This is a very exhausted study from our MLS: https://armls.com/docs/2022-June-STAT.pdf
Hopefully I'm allowed to post this link... not sure. It's all part of our Phoenix MLS so all copyright is theirs.
According to Zillow (for what it's worth) my properties decreased over the past 30 days.
3 properties - 85205: 0.8% 1.3% and 0.5%
2 properties 85234 0.2% and 0.4%
1 property 85249 0.7%
1 property 85286 0.4%
I'm really not worry too much about 85234, 85286 or 85249. All properties are in good locations.
85205 or E. Mesa is what I'm watching closely.
As far as list price/sales price: I use Redfin to check DOM and how much over/under list price a property sold for. What has surprised me thus far are the number of properties that sit over 45 days yet sell for slightly under/over list price.
Or maybe this shouldn't be too surprising given many sellers today might not fall under the category of "distressed."
You only need to look at the price of copper to see that the economy is already slowing down and it is going to get very ugly.
This entire economy is a house of cards, so much of it is fake or a bubble take your pick and once it starts to go it is going to happen fast just like in 2008.
Our government has never accomplished a soft landing from high inflation.....interests rates should have been rising much sooner and much higher......I'm afraid at this point it is too late and the numbers are telling us that we are in a recession already....two consecutive quarters with negative growth.....that was Q1 and Q2.
I wish and hope I'm wrong....but I don't think I am...time for sure will tell the story.
btw.....using Zillow to price properties is about as inaccurate as one can get......go by square footage of the recent sells in your area and you will be close.
You only need to look at the price of copper to see that the economy is already slowing down and it is going to get very ugly.
This entire economy is a house of cards, so much of it is fake or a bubble take your pick and once it starts to go it is going to happen fast just like in 2008.
Our government has never accomplished a soft landing from high inflation.....interests rates should have been rising much sooner and much higher......I'm afraid at this point it is too late and the numbers are telling us that we are in a recession already....two consecutive quarters with negative growth.....that was Q1 and Q2.
I wish and hope I'm wrong....but I don't think I am...time for sure will tell the story.
btw.....using Zillow to price properties is about as inaccurate as one can get......go by square footage of the recent sells in your area and you will be close.
I go to Redfin and look at specific zip codes. This tells me which homes sold that day, how long they sat on the market and how much under/over asking price they went for. I see the sq. footage as well.
As far as asking price. I'm still seeing 85234 (Gilbert) homes which peaked in the 580k-600k range listed on the high end. And what I noticed recently and mentioned before are the number of properties that sat for over 45 days. Yet, they still sold just under/over asking price.
How much will this change? Time will tell.
Zillow? It gives you a good starting point when looking to buy or sell.
The U.S. housing market is starting to slow after months of record-high home prices, surging mortgage interest rates and a lack of inventory that has forced buyers into merciless bidding wars. This slowdown, which could eventually bring home prices down, could also go into a completely opposite direction, one that economists dread: a market crash.
July 2022 https://www.bing.com/search?q=The%20...h.&form=IPRV10
You only need to look at the price of copper to see that the economy is already slowing down and it is going to get very ugly.
This entire economy is a house of cards, so much of it is fake or a bubble take your pick and once it starts to go it is going to happen fast just like in 2008.
Our government has never accomplished a soft landing from high inflation.....interests rates should have been rising much sooner and much higher......I'm afraid at this point it is too late and the numbers are telling us that we are in a recession already....two consecutive quarters with negative growth.....that was Q1 and Q2.
I wish and hope I'm wrong....but I don't think I am...time for sure will tell the story.
btw.....using Zillow to price properties is about as inaccurate as one can get......go by square footage of the recent sells in your area and you will be close.
Remember that the price of copper or the price of oil is heavily based on what people predict will happen in the future. If copper usage is actually down, then the economy is already (past tense) slowing down. If we only stare at the price of the commodity, that can be confusing. The best I can tell, people are predicting the economy is going to slow down and are placing their bets accordingly and that is why copper is down. Not that they are pulling out less from the ground and businesses are buying less.
I'm not saying that we are not going to slow down. Of course, we are! I am saying, confidence plummeted and people squeezed their wallets for 4-6 weeks. And then, their wallet opened up again. My point was, that this reversal of demand surprised me.
Not copper anecdotal evidence but rather aluminum, a buddy of mine buys a couple of million pounds of extruded Aluminum per year (maybe it's up to 4 million). He simply cannot get enough of it unless he is willing to grossly overpay new suppliers. We talked last week. He isn't seeing any more aluminum to make his widgets. He fights 24-7 to get what he gets. His dealers are crying for more products as they can sell as many products as he can ship. I'm guessing he is down by 50% in sales. Yet his margin has skyrocketed. So why he has been selling a lot less, he is making a lot more in his back pocket per month. Yea, his dealers are also making more than ever selling less product. They normally will break list prices by 20%. Their margin is 40 points and getting a full price on much higher list prices. This is no different than the automotive industry. They is massive backlog of cars. They are producing less and yet their profits are higher.
My point is, that inflation is STILL going on because people have not stopped buying. There will be another rate hike. And I have harped on the FED in these threads for waiting from raising the rates (especially for housing and them buying MBS while people were overbidding by $100K on homes). IMO, a bunch of clowns are running this economy. And you are right, we are all playing with fire because they waited too long.
Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 07-16-2022 at 05:17 AM..
A significant fall of copper prices has predicted a recession with 100% accuracy for the past 30 years.....we currently are at that stage.
With Russia being one of the top producers of Aluminum #3, we are seeing supply and delivery issues causing a short term aluminum problem whereas with copper we are seeing a global demand issue.
I wonder with interest rates going up how much of some recent buying is the panic of not being able to buy if it goes up another point or 2.....as it definitely is going to do....I would not be surprised to see rates go to 8 or 9% as we are going to fail miserably at getting inflation under control.
A significant fall of copper prices has predicted a recession with 100% accuracy for the past 30 years.....we currently are at that stage.
With Russia being one of the top producers of Aluminum #3, we are seeing supply and delivery issues causing a short term aluminum problem whereas with copper we are seeing a global demand issue.
I wonder with interest rates going up how much of some recent buying is the panic of not being able to buy if it goes up another point or 2.....as it definitely is going to do....I would not be surprised to see rates go to 8 or 9% as we are going to fail miserably at getting inflation under control.
I'm going on a limb here... predicting that interest rates have peaked for this 4-year cycle. They would go down as we are nearing a recession. The next low is expected in 2024. So this will help the housing market etc.
I think we cannot be in a recession right now, because the leading economic indicators LEIs are still way too strong, and employment has only weakened minimally yet.
I also think recession is unavoidable (maybe around the turn of the year) because the inflation shock has tanked consumer confidence so much that regardless of what policymakers do (federal government, FED etc.) consumers are restricting spending more and more.
So we are in the pessimism bubble before the recession right now. This is when everyone is convinced of doom and gloom and thinks we are already in recession. Then people calm down and then recession hits "like a thief in the night". Not like the best-predicted recession ever right now.
Overall, consumer balance sheets are historically healthy right now. The "debt service as a percentage of disposable income" stat from the St. Louis FED tool ("FRED") is still near decades-lows. If we had the measure for longer it would probably show consumer balance sheets as healthy as they come post-WW2. There are historically less excesses compared to 2008. We'll be fine even if we get a short and sharp recession. This will provide some necessary inflation relief.
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Currently, it is a chess game. This game won't last forever. The time will come when getting elected (a.ka. popular opinion) will win out. The only question is when.
In short, I think the trend reversions will be much stronger than most people believe.
I wrote another $20K of business yesterday. As I said, the economy has heated up again. Ignore last months numbers, it's back to business again. Who knows how long....
