Oregon’s population declines for first time in 30 years, state economist warns of revenue loss (Portland: for sale, rent)

[MtnSurfer]

More people left Oregon than moved in this year. Oregon economists projected growth. Instead, their forecasts where off by a significant margin. This equates to a lot less total revenue for the state. Oregon’s population declines for first time in 30 years

While economists see no silver lining, I think some locals may prefer a decline in population. It could mean a slight dip in home values which for some is a good thing. In our capitalistic society driven by supply and demand, could Oregon have reached its tipping point of 'value added' for those seeking their next home?

Case in point: a Portland friend just posted this home for sale in her neighborhood. Most locals were shocked to see the ridiculous price. What do you think? Dream home or rip-off?

$450,000; 2 bd 1 ba; 975 sqft

Derek

[509]

Hmm, paid 35,000 for that house is Coeur d'Alene, Idaho in 1978. Good house.

Don't ever buy a house with one bedroom EVEN if your single at the time.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by 509

Hmm, paid 35,000 for that house is Coeur d'Alene, Idaho in 1978. Good house.

Don't ever buy a house with one bedroom EVEN if your single at the time.

Idaho is currently seeing the opposite trend. I view it more as a ripple affect with OR/WA prices reaching tipping points. Whereas other states like Idaho and Texas are still viewed as areas with 'relative' affordability. So, they continue to be flooded by new residents from every state.

One of the biggest problems is the contrast in wages per state. I recently saw this 2023 minimum wage map for all 50 states. The differences are stark. Where do the lower wage earners go to afford a home or even rent as people flood in from all over? The wage differences between ID and OR/WA are stark.





-- https://www-koin-com.cdn.ampproject....ges-in-2023%2F

Derek

[CaliforniaPlaya]

So where are all the people going? Not just the ones from Oregon or CA, but all the states with declining population? Do these states have anything in common? Are the people ending up in Idaho and Arizona and in all the other states that are seeing a large population increase? Are people leaving the US - maybe back to their home country or US citizens relocating if they're able to work remotely out of the US? Are some states seeing more of an effect from the excess deaths related to Covid than other states? This bring up so many questions, but ultimately comes down to why and where did they go? Guess only time will tell.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaPlaya

So where are all the people going? Not just the ones from Oregon or CA, but all the states with declining population? Do these states have anything in common? Are the people ending up in Idaho and Arizona and in all the other states that are seeing a large population increase? Are people leaving the US - maybe back to their home country or US citizens relocating if they're able to work remotely out of the US? Are some states seeing more of an effect from the excess deaths related to Covid than other states? This bring up so many questions, but ultimately comes down to why and where did they go? Guess only time will tell.

Well, I've been watching these migration patterns for quite some time out of interests mainly, I guess. It all started back in CA where I grew up and watched people flooding in from every state and nation. While it happened to a greater extent during certain periods, it seemed like it would never end... until it did (on a macro scale).

After moving to CO and then the PNW, I observed similar patterns. You really need to take each state a look at them separately first. Look at all the people coming in, where from and then all the folks leaving, where to. Over the years, these places shift. Back 10-20+ years ago, many Californians where moving to the PNW, CO and other states to a lessor degree such as AZ, NV and many southern states. Fast forward to today and there is a shifting as COL has risen in both the PNW and CO.

There are socioeconomic drivers which affect this change. For retirees, the PNW or CO aren't the great deals they once were at least in some of the most popular places. They've been discovered and prices have gone up. The same is true for the younger crowd. If they can find decent paying jobs in more affordable states, they are going there. That includes many southern states as well as ID which is beginning to experience the same kind of tipping point. What's next? While prices are rising everywhere, they are still doing so to a lessor extent in certain regions more 'ripe for the picken.'

That doesn't mean people aren't still moving to CA, OR, WA or CO. But from a macroeconomics perspective, the tides have shifted to other locations of perceived value. Add to that the aftermath of Covid with many more companies offering remote work and the possibilities have really expanded. You can live in a low paying town and buy a home at a reasonable price on Big Company salaries. All you need is decent internet. So people aren't forced to move to LA, SF, SJ, Seattle, NYC, DC, etc... to pursue their careers. They can do that elsewhere. This creates a rebalancing of home values across the nation where it didn't make financial sense before. Now suddenly you can live in the mountains or on a beach far from any large city and function just fine if that's what you want to experience.

And yes, in some cases they move abroad and still work for a big US company. I know some who have done it. One Expat works for Google in Australia and loves it there.

Derek

[Cloudy Dayz]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

More people left Oregon than moved in this year. Oregon economists projected growth. Instead, their forecasts where off by a significant margin. This equates to a lot less total revenue for the state. Oregon’s population declines for first time in 30 years

While economists see no silver lining, I think some locals may prefer a decline in population. It could mean a slight dip in home values which for some is a good thing. In our capitalistic society driven by supply and demand, could Oregon have reached its tipping point of 'value added' for those seeking their next home?

Case in point: a Portland friend just posted this home for sale in her neighborhood. Most locals were shocked to see the ridiculous price. What do you think? Dream home or rip-off?

$450,000; 2 bd 1 ba; 975 sqft

Derek

Oregon’s population decreased by over 16,000 people between July 2021 and July 2022, a 0.4% drop from the previous year. This marks the first time Oregon has seen a population decrease since 1983. That year, the state experienced 0.4% population decline after having already experienced a 0.1% population decline in 1982.

Well the state survived the population declines in 1982 and 1983 just fine. I'm betting Oregon will survive this population decline too.

And yes, I'm one of those locals who prefers population decline, short of any mass exodus. Unfortunately I think it will be short lived. Once all those thousands of burned homes are replaced, people will be coming back.

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

More people left Oregon than moved in this year. Oregon economists projected growth. Instead, their forecasts where off by a significant margin. This equates to a lot less total revenue for the state. Oregon’s population declines for first time in 30 years

While economists see no silver lining, I think some locals may prefer a decline in population. It could mean a slight dip in home values which for some is a good thing. In our capitalistic society driven by supply and demand, could Oregon have reached its tipping point of 'value added' for those seeking their next home?

Case in point: a Portland friend just posted this home for sale in her neighborhood. Most locals were shocked to see the ridiculous price. What do you think? Dream home or rip-off?

$450,000; 2 bd 1 ba; 975 sqft

Derek

It's not a terrible house or terrible part of town, and at least they've fixed it up somewhat. A nicer, more modern bathroom remodel would have gone a long way toward fetching something closer to that 450k list price. Her problem is going to be, for that same price I can get more. E.g.: for 19k more I can get a big upgrade in size and location, only losing the 1 car garage. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3...3961448_zpid/?

She's going to struggle to sell it at that price.

[Silverfall]

Originally Posted by CaliforniaPlaya

So where are all the people going? Not just the ones from Oregon or CA, but all the states with declining population? Do these states have anything in common? Are the people ending up in Idaho and Arizona and in all the other states that are seeing a large population increase? Are people leaving the US - maybe back to their home country or US citizens relocating if they're able to work remotely out of the US? Are some states seeing more of an effect from the excess deaths related to Covid than other states? This bring up so many questions, but ultimately comes down to why and where did they go? Guess only time will tell.

So anecdotally with my clients that have moved out of state in the past few years...

1) Boomers are retiring and moving to warmer states. Florida, Texas, and Arizona are popular. This was the biggest group.
2) People are moving for politics and many of that group seemed to head to Idaho or Texas. This was the second biggest group.

[CaliforniaPlaya]

Originally Posted by MtnSurfer

Well, I've been watching these migration patterns for quite some time out of interests mainly, I guess. It all started back in CA where I grew up and watched people flooding in from every state and nation. While it happened to a greater extent during certain periods, it seemed like it would never end... until it did (on a macro scale).

After moving to CO and then the PNW, I observed similar patterns. You really need to take each state a look at them separately first. Look at all the people coming in, where from and then all the folks leaving, where to. Over the years, these places shift. Back 10-20+ years ago, many Californians where moving to the PNW, CO and other states to a lessor degree such as AZ, NV and many southern states. Fast forward to today and there is a shifting as COL has risen in both the PNW and CO.

There are socioeconomic drivers which affect this change. For retirees, the PNW or CO aren't the great deals they once were at least in some of the most popular places. They've been discovered and prices have gone up. The same is true for the younger crowd. If they can find decent paying jobs in more affordable states, they are going there. That includes many southern states as well as ID which is beginning to experience the same kind of tipping point. What's next? While prices are rising everywhere, they are still doing so to a lessor extent in certain regions more 'ripe for the picken.'

That doesn't mean people aren't still moving to CA, OR, WA or CO. But from a macroeconomics perspective, the tides have shifted to other locations of perceived value. Add to that the aftermath of Covid with many more companies offering remote work and the possibilities have really expanded. You can live in a low paying town and buy a home at a reasonable price on Big Company salaries. All you need is decent internet. So people aren't forced to move to LA, SF, SJ, Seattle, NYC, DC, etc... to pursue their careers. They can do that elsewhere. This creates a rebalancing of home values across the nation where it didn't make financial sense before. Now suddenly you can live in the mountains or on a beach far from any large city and function just fine if that's what you want to experience.

And yes, in some cases they move abroad and still work for a big US company. I know some who have done it. One Expat works for Google in Australia and loves it there.

Derek

That all makes sense Derek. Where about did you grow up in CA?

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by Silverfall

So anecdotally with my clients that have moved out of state in the past few years...

1) Boomers are retiring and moving to warmer states. Florida, Texas, and Arizona are popular. This was the biggest group.
2) People are moving for politics and many of that group seemed to head to Idaho or Texas. This was the second biggest group.

This looks similar to the stats I've seen online in the first group if you also include California. Though those numbers did not focus on a particular demographic such as retirees. I doubt many retirees are moving to CA.

Derek